There have been numerous reports that the small-market Milwaukee Brewers are nearing a contract extension with three-time Silver Slugger, two-time All-Star, two-time Batting Champion, Gold Glove, and 2018 NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich that will guarantee the 28-year-old outfielder more than $200 million over the next nine seasons with an average annual value around $28 million. There is no doubt that in today’s inflated MLB market that the Thousand Oaks, CA native and first-round draft pick by the Miami Marlins in 2010 out of Westlake High School is worth every penny of that extension. And considering the free-agent contracts signed in the last few months by Gerrit Cole ($36 million AAV) and Anthony Rendon ($35 million AAV), it could be argued that Yelich is giving the Brewers a huge discount from what he could ultimately earn in free agency.

The Yelich extension begs the question about the wealthy Los Angeles Dodgers and their core of young stars like Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, and recently acquired one-year rental (to the tune of $27 million) megastar outfielder Mookie Betts.

This past offseason, the Dodgers signed infielder Max Muncy to an arbitration-avoiding three-year / $25 million contract extension ($8.667 million AAV) with a $13 million club option for 2023, and utility player Chris Taylor to an arbitration-avoiding two-year/ $13.4 million ($6.7 million AAV) contract extension. Based upon the respective performances of Muncy and Taylor over the last few seasons, the Dodgers are getting a bargain.

What is preventing the Dodgers from extending their young star players as other teams have recently done (Atlanta Braves Ronald Acuna Jr., Chicago White Sox Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, Houston Astros Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, Colorado Rockies Nolan Arenado, and LA Angels Mike Trout (etc.)?

In April 2019, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said this:

“There are certain players where giving that security [guaranteed contract extension] allows them to blossom and play even better, …[but] certain guys play really well with that carrot in front of their face, and that extra added motivator helps get the most out of them. It’s imperative to figure out which group different guys fall into. But I wouldn’t be surprised if within the next 12 months we do some.”

No disrespect intended toward Muncy and Taylor as both are wonderful players, but that quote created the hope for Dodgers fans that Bellinger, Buehler, and Seager would be extended sooner than later.

But there are other factors that may be hindering long term deals with the Dodgers core players: The competitive balance tax (CBT) penalties for exceeding the annual payroll threshold; the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expiration in December 2021 which will likely increase the CBT threshold, and possibly shorten the Major League service requirement for free agency; each player’s agent anticipating huge free agency paydays for their clients; and, the expiration of large contracts over the next couple of seasons, totaling over $100M.

Mookie Betts is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season when he will be 28-years-old. Corey Seager will be eligible after the 2021 season, also 28-years-old, and with Scott Boras as his agent, the odds are heavily in favor of Corey testing the market under the terms of a new CBA. But the Dodgers will have the financial wherewithal to make Seager a lifetime Dodger. Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, Walker Buehler after 2024, and Will Smith after 2025.

It is very unlikely that the Dodgers will retain all of its young stars, and with its deep and talented prospect pipeline, there may be even more talented players only waiting for their opportunities. Which current Dodgers stars may trade off the lure of free agency in exchange for guaranteed financial security that protects them in case of injury, or declining performance? To be determined, but this fan hopes for Betts, Bellinger, Buehler, and Seager to be lifetime Dodgers.