January 12th, 2020 at 8:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Throughout this year’s so-called ‘Hot Stove season,’ the Dodgers have been ice cold. In fact, heading into Friday’s arbitration deadline, the Dodgers had made exactly three additions to their roster: minor league infielder Carlos Sepulveda on December 12, veteran right-hander Blake Treinen on December 15, and veteran right-hander Jimmy Nelson on January 7. That’s it.
However, since the final out of the 2019 National League Division Series against the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals on October 9, 2019 (thereby ending the Dodgers 2019 season), there have been constant rumors that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was ‘shopping’ 27-year-old outfielder Joc Pederson; and we’re talking almost daily rumors here.
Needless to say, when you are on the receiving end of such rumors, and let’s face it, in today’s social media-driven world it’s impossible not to hear them, it’s understandable that they would leave a sour taste in your mouth. Then again, when you post a slash line of .249/.339/.538/.876 in 148 games in the just-concluded 2019 season and have a career slash line of .233/.339/.474/.813 over six major league seasons, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that you are on the trading block; especially when you hit a team second-best 36 home runs in 2019 and have 123 home runs over those six major league seasons.
There is no denying that Pederson, who was selected by the Dodgers in the 11th round of the 2010 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Palo Alto High School in Palo Alto, CA and was an All-Star in 2015, has been a fan-favorite during his time in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, he may have (very) seriously tarnished his shine among the Dodgers faithful on Friday evening when it was reported – and confirmed – that the 6′-1″/220-pound left-handed hitting and throwing outfielder declined Friedman’s rather generous one-year/$7.75 million offer to avoid arbitration, instead demanding a one-year/$9.5 million deal. Keep in mind we’re talking about a guy with a career .233/.339/.474/.813 slash line here.
When word (quickly) spread that Pederson had rebuffed the Dodgers more-than-fair offer and demanded almost $2 million more, it immediately brought to mind the famous quote:
“I’d like to buy him for what he’s worth and sell him for what he thinks he’s worth.”
Although you will never hear him say it, at least not publicly, it’s probably safe to say that Andrew Friedman’s desire to move Pederson has increased exponentially, especially if the return will make his current already very good team – one with a stable already loaded with outfield talent and even more down on the farm – even better. As such, it is difficult to see Pederson’s (and his agent’s) arbitration counter offer as anything but an act of defiance … or bitterness.
Then again, it could also be a calculated ploy to force Friedman to trade him, which brings to mind another popular quote:
“Don’t let the door hit you in the [back] on the way out.”
Play Ball!
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Sorry to hear this, but if he wants out let’s grant him his wish.
Would Joc/Pollock/Strip for Betts/Price keep us under the 228 threshold?
I like Joc a lot as I like all of our useful role players and I’ll have mixed feelings when he leaves. At 9.5, he’s a valuable player to many teams, but not that valuable to us. Trading him for a prospect probably drops our win expectation from 99 to 98. I expect he’ll be gone before opening day.
You would need to add another prospect maybe rios. And 5 would go as far to send may,goeslin,ruiz and downs for lindor and clevelander
It will be sad to see Joc go, but as we’ve learned through the years, you can’t get too attached to these players.
Joc is in his last year of arbitration before becoming a FA, and was predicted to be around $8.5million or so by MLBTradeRumors (via Sportrac) and Rotoworld (links below). Joc was worth 3.3 fWAR and 3.0 bWAR last year, without a full season’s worth of at bats. The year before? 2.7 and 2.3 respectively. 2017 aside, Joc has consistently been a 2.5-3 WAR player with a great eye, great power, and a an above-average glove
Arbitration numbers are always based on comparing to past arbitration deals and precedent, plus a little inflation that naturally makes its way into numbers. Joc is just trying to push the historical numbers in his direction, and it looks like he has a pretty good case.
With the rough value of 1 WAR being around $8-10 million conservatively (link below), Joc is a bargain at either number if he gets anywhere close to his usual level of production. The Dodgers may have other alternatives they can get similar production out of and pay less for (although, AJ Pollock, really?), but that’s not Joc’s problem. He’s still worth what he’s worth. And as a 28yo FA next year, he’s going to get paid.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/los-angeles-dodgers-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/joc-pederson-14229/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/
Joc is worth it. Other than 2017, Joc has been good for 2.5-3+ fWAR or bWar without a full season’s worth of at bats. He’s 27 and consistently contributes, and is going to get paid as a 28yo FA next year, which is why the Dodgers would be wise to trade him this year, or they’ll only get draft pick compensation for him. Regardless, the Dodgers are going to come to agreements with all these guys they filed arbitration numbers with before they get to the table. It’s all good.
Joc consistently hits in October. You can’t say that about the “Stars” on this team including the MVP.
It would be A MISTAKE to let Joc go andto reduce good talent without adding much this off-season….losing his power would be even worse than losing Ryu as well….I am disappointed in the abject cheapness of the Dodger’s management…doing nothing to improve the team as well as letting good talent go, all jn the name of the millons and millions dollars that they seem to be hoarding for what, for whom?
I like Joc and I think the dodgers should sign him. However I don’t think Joc is happy in LA. You can see it in his face when he’s up to bat. Looks very unsure of himself, like it’s his first day on the job. He needs to utilize the field more when hitting. They need to let him hit lefty’s so he can improve his game. Maybe if he hits better he won’t get platoon so often. Go Joc
You write this article from the perspective that the Dodgers are using your money to pay Joc’s salary. It’s a free market. It’s a negotiation. Let the market determine his worth. Andrew Friedman is a big boy. I’m sure Joc didn’t hurt his feelings. He may have gained a measure of respect for him that he didn’t have before.
One word: HA!
The tale of 2 Dodgers outfielders (WAR / OPS+ over last 4 seasons:
AJ Pollock: .5 / 85; 3.1 / 100; 2.5 / 108; .02 / 1.08
J Pederson: 3.3 / 126; -0.3 / 96; 2.3 / 125; 3.3 / 127
Who deserves top be paid more?
Pollock’s AAV is $12.1M, but will be paid $15M in 2020.
Dodgers want Pederson to be happy with half of the amount Pollock will be paid.
Pederson is sending a message to the Dodgers; hope they are listening.
As we know the arbitration hearings can get ugly, as one side tries to emphasize any reason for not paying said player what he asked for. IMHO going to these hearings can alienate the player from the team to the point he may make up his mind that upon FA he goes elsewhere. Question for you is: should Joc get what he is asking for or should they settle in between? I believe the hitting against LHP issue may be part of Dodger’s argument but also he does not get too many chances now a days to do so. Of course his previous track record against them may have a lot to do with it but as they say, ‘ya can’t play if ya don’t play’. Case in point here is Joc had only 49 AB’s against LHP in 2019, a small sample size for a .224 BA, which is not that far off from his life time BA as I understand it.
Forget arbitration, I believe this comes down to an internal equity and fairness issue. Who is more valuable to the Dodgers, Joc Pederson or AJ Pollock? Who is paid more; a lot more? The Dodgers created this problem by signing the injury prone, diminishing skills AJ Pollck.
Agree about a fairness issue. Pollock certainly, as ya suggest is not worth the $$ he is being paid. And to be fair Joc has had a better showing in the PS for sure. We all saw Pollock strike out 11 times in only 13 AB’s against the Nats. But maybe you can understand then to a degree why I am a bit down on the mind set of this FO. Your example pretty much gives a good reason for it. In any event I do hope Dodgers can settle this with Joc before that hearing date. But now I ask, do ya feel he will be dealt before OD this year?
Are you kidding me? Fall from grace? The dude had a streak where he hit 5 straight home runs. and saying he doesn’t have a good slash line? a career .340 OBP is great and an OPS over .800? that’s a starter on any team. Every joc puts up consistent numbers, has clutch at bats and plays hard while still getting slandered by dodgers media for a low batting avg. executives don’t care about avg anymore! get with the times
You make food points. But my suggestion for Joc is to perhaps do what Bellinger did to improve his work against LHP.. As we saw in 2018 Cody struggled somewhat against LHP to the point that Roberts platooned him more in the 2nd half of 2018 for sure. Cody didn’t care to be viewed as a platoon player so he worked hard in the following off season at his craft and we all saw those results in 2019.
This article sounds like a management hit piece. A shill for the FO. It’s very biased. Peterson is one of the Dodgers most clutch players including our MVP. He’s not a favorite of mine, but there’s no choke in him especially during the postseason. Sign him or trade him,but do not diminish or villify him please.
Agree
Over .800 OPS certainly nothing to sneeze at. And because he bats lead off his rbis not as high as they should be with 36 homers
So much for a team’s loyalty to players! Aside from his BA, Joc has been a very reliable clutch player in the last 6 years! I would hate to see him leave LA, but it means a promotion as an everyday player on another team then kudos to Joc! Always liked him as a player!
Milton, Joc is a FA after this year and maybe Dodgers deal him, maybe not. After all impact signings or moves have been very minimal to this point anyway. Chances are he will remain here and Dodgers may give him a QO but odds are he rejects it and goes FA for the 2021 season.
Seager got the same offer after all the injuries and time out? Joc is surely worth what he is asking.
What’s $2m more in this day and age to retain a guy with fantastic team chemistry. Pay Joc his request. Don’t be stingy.
I believe Joe will get his number or something close. Not sure why you are so down on him, but your logic doesn’t hold up. Not Mr. Clutch yet, but working on it.
We need to pay Peterson!!! and give Pollock, Lux, Gosolin Striplin or some other prospect for Lindor and Clevinger so we can win a world series and STOP thinking that the NL West pennant is good enough!!!
As you say, Joc is being offered a little more than 1/2 of what a less productive Pollock is receivin… https://t.co/FHNa8TxLsu
Joc hit above .200 in exactly three of the six months during 2019. Think about that. He was the streakiest player on the team. There were weeks when he barely put a ball in play and was effectively useless. Surely, they can do better.
I know I’m in the minority of fans, but I’d like to see him back.
Fall from grace?? You are to be ashamed of yourself that’s nothing more then click bait
i think the article is fair enough.
i wonder why people that the correct response to over paying for pollock should be to overpay for joc.
he’s redundant on this team at best.
mr clutch struck out in the 7th inn of game two, 17 WS with a runner on 3rd, less than two outs and the infield in. that run would have avoided the extra inning loss and the dodgers win the series in 6. dont act like he’s gehrig.
Dfan86, can i ask your age? i’m curious if thinking 340 obp is great is a generational thing or if we just disagree. most every player on the roster is a starter on any other team.
Maybe I’m the only guy who had to haggle with employers for more money. I’ve been self-employed for more than 30 years, but I still remember those salary review meetings. They weren’t the end of the world and they definitely let both sides know where they stood. So I’m not upset, with the prospect of arbitration hearings for Pederson and others.
The Dodgers are offering millions of dollars to all four players. If that doesn’t tell them they are valued I don’t know what would. Especially, if they are also talking signing a longer contract.
Before arbitration, If I were the Dodgers, I’d offer a Miguel Sano type contract, 3 yrs for Pederson’s age 27 through 29 seasons, at around $30M including a team option for a 4th season. 3rd baseman Sano just signed a contract like that and he hit .247 with a .346 OBP and 34 home runs last season, also strikes out a lot.
I’m totally OK with what Pederson brings the next three years on a contract like that. A platoon with Pollock (who does hit lefties well) in left-field with pinch hitting duties when lefties start would be great. But if Pederson can’t be extended he’s trade bait now while he brings something back. Shouldn’t lose him after the season for nothing.