As Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff continue to build the 2020 roster, they are analyzing players’ performance data to forecast, with a reasonable amount of confidence, expected future contributions. When fans debate the pros and cons of current Dodgers relative to potential acquisitions, they may refer to the common stats like batting average (BA), on-base percentage (OBP), on-base and slugging (OPS); pitchers earned run averages (ERA) and wins above replacement (WAR). Although these stats are only the very top portion of the MLB statistical iceberg, they are readily available from various sources like Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, Statcast, et al for fans to debate.

First, a brief review of a piece that was posted here in January 2019.

• WAR is commonly referred to in comparing one player to another, although it is not really a stat; it is a calculation that attempts to quantify each player’s value by using a number of playing stats (different stats for position players and pitchers) expressed in wins compared to a fictional minor league class AAAA player. For those who want to dig deeper into the methodology, Fangraphs glossary has a detailed explanation of its calculation (which varies slightly from the Baseball-Reference calculation).

• Fangraphs points out that WAR is not so precise that you can reliably conclude that a certain player with a WAR a few tenths of a point higher than another player is the better player. It is best used as a range within which players may be characterized as:  Scrubs – players with a WAR between  0 and 1; Role players between 1 and 2; Solid Starters 2 to 3; Good Players 3 to 4; All-Stars 4 to 5; Super Stars 5 to 6; and, 6+ are MVP candidates.

Dodgers offensive WAR leaders in 2019 were: National League MVP Cody Bellinger (7.8), Max Muncy (4.8), Justin Turner (3.4), and Corey Seager (3.3); pitchers were led by Walker Buehler (5.0), Hyun-Jin Ryu (4.8), Clayton Kershaw (3.4), and Kenta Maeda (2.5). “Scrubs” for the 2019 Dodgers were: position players AJ Pollock (.9), and Austin Barnes (.7); and, pitchers (who were with the team for the majority of the season) Dylan Floro (.6), and Joe Kelly (.4).

After the 2018 season, the Dodgers overall WAR was reduced by 15 with the departures of Yasmani Grandal, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, and Manny Machado. Yet, the team more than made up the difference, winning 106 games on the strength of Bellinger’s monster season, the continued strong performances from its core group of position players and pitchers, plus the return of Corey Seager, and the significant contributions from rookies like Alex Verdugo, Matt Beaty, Will Smith, and Dustin May.

The Dodgers WAR was reduced after the 2019 season with the departures of several players, notably Ryu, David Freese, and Russell Martin, with a combined total of 7.4.

How will the team make up for the production lost from those players? Will it come from the acquisition of shortstop Franciso Lindor or outfielder Mookie Betts or right-hander Mike Clevinger, or some other combination of free agents, or trades? Or will it be made up by full-season contributions from a healthy Alex Verdugo, regular catcher Will Smith, minor league player of the year Gavin Lux, a healthy Julio Urias reaching his potential as a starting pitcher, and/or rookie pitchers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin helping to stabilize the starting rotation and bullpen?

Either way, we fans will not be disappointed, as the Dodgers continue to be one of – if not the best – team in all of baseball.

Play ball!

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