What options do the Dodgers have if they are unable to sign one of the top free-agent power hitters available, such as Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson or Nick Castellanos?
The first option is straight forward – do nothing. The infield would include Corey Seager at shortstop, Baseball America‘s Minor League Player of the Year Gavin Lux at second base, with Max Muncy and Justin Turner sharing and splitting time at first and third base. These regulars would be backed up by some combination of 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger, Kiké Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Tyler White, Matt Beaty, and Edwin Rios. In the outfield, Joc Pederson and A.J. Pollock would share left field, with Bellinger and Alex Verdugo manning centerfield and right field. Still a predominantly left-handed-hitting lineup, but essentially the same one that had the best offense in the National League in 2019.
There are other free-agent options, but none that would be better than what the Dodgers already have on their current roster. If the team wants to add offense and balance the lineup with another right-handed hitter, they will have to do so by trade, ranging from blockbusters for Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, or even Southern California native Giancarlo Stanton, to a simple straight across exchange of 32-year-old (on Thursday) A.J. Pollock for 34-year-old Evan Longoria, who currently have very similar (and expensive) contracts.
What might those trades look like?
Scenario 1
A ‘KISS’ (keep it simple stupid) trade – A.J. Pollock to the San Francisco Giants for Evan Longoria. On the surface, it may seem like moving similar pieces, but the results would be a better all-around offense and defense for Dodgers, with Longoria’s defense much better than Turner, who would move to first base, Max Muncy to second base. Kiké Hernandez becomes the platoon partner with Joc Pederson in left field with better offense and defense than the departing Pollock. Dodgers may have to include a third base prospect like Cristian Santana or Omar Estevez in the trade.
Scenario 2
Outfielder Mitch Haniger from the Seattle Mariners. What would Dodgers have to give up? Perhaps Kenta Maeda and Kyle Garlick. But what happens to Joc Pederson and AJ Pollock? Pederson, Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty to the Cleveland Indians for Corey Kluber? Pollock to the St. Louis Cardinals for Andrew Miller and outfield prospect Harrison Bader?
Scenario 3
Outfielder / first baseman Trey Mancini from the Baltimore Orioles? What would it take? A lot! Perhaps Matt Beaty, DJ Peters, Chris Taylor, and Mitchell White. Pederson and Pollock would go in the same deals described in scenario 2.
Scenario 4
Shortstop / third baseman Paul DeJong from the St. Louis Cardinals? This could become a legit blockbuster with Andrew Miller and Tyler O’Neil also coming to Dodgers for Gavin Lux, A.J. Pollock, and Kenta Maeda. Dodgers make the same deal as above for Corey Kluber.
Scenario 5
Outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, the $30M sent to New York Yankees from the Miami Marlins, another $10M from the Yankees, and relief pitcher Zach Britton. Dodgers send Joc Pederson, Kenta Maeda, A.J. Pollock, Scott Alexander, and outfield prospects Starling Heredia and Jeren Kendall to New York. Stanton comes home and becomes the Dodgers left fielder.
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I don’t see the Dodgers offering the prospects it would take to obtain Betts or Lindor. There are several other scenarios that could come into play, but five should create some lively banter for Dodgers fans … or tell us what trade scenario you think should be considered for a right-handed bat.
Let the Hot Stove debate begin.
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GREAT stuff, Jesse. Thanks!
Although DJ Peters and Jeren Kendall are indeed HUGE trade chips, it would be a travesty to lose either – even more so than losing Mitchell White, Cristian Santana or Omar Estevez … and by a considerable margin.
Don’t know if you follow the Australian Baseball League, but 3B Jared Walker, who played at Advanced Single-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2018 and Double-A Tulsa in 2019, is doing exceptionally well with the Auckland Tuatara, slashing .429/.542/.333/.970. (I saw quite a bit of him when he was at Rancho). He is 23 and was drafted by the Dodgers in the 5th round in 2014.
That being said, he throws right and bats (wait for it…) left.
#sigh
Peters is absolutely a huge trade piece that I prefer to keep with the Dodgers, but for a player like Trey Mancini who still has 4 years of team control, you will have to give up something of excellent value. I am very disappointed in Kendall. With all of the work and time put into helping him make better contact he continues to strike out too much to be considered a legit prospect (IMHO).
Is Stanton capable of staying healthy and making a difference? Or is he a strike out machine or a superstar?why not sign Catellanos or Rendon and keeping all of those tradechips. Though at least with Briton coming back to the dodgers we probably fill a Superbowl need.
I am not giving up much for the potential of Stanton; Pederson is a free agent after 2020; Maeda is a no. 4 starter who would be better in the bullpen, but wants to start; you know my feeling about Pollock – a Friedman mistake; Alexander is a hohum reliever when healthy; and, both Kendall and Heredia have been very big disappointments. The biggest concern about Stanton is the enormous amount of money owed to him when he is on the wrong side of 35.
I think the best thing the Dodgers can do this offseason would be to sign Rendon. It would be a big surprise to me to see that happen, but I think it’s the biggest way to end this World Series championship drought.
Rendon should be the primary target, followed closely by Cole, or Strasburg. I would like to see Dodgers re-sign Ryu as well and trade Maeda and Stripling
Jesse, that is what I would like to see happen first and foremost, as far as your ideas on Rendon, Cole, Ryu.
Sign Ryu.
Move Kershaw and Jansen for a bag of baseballs and salary relief.
Make Baez closer; move Gonsolin into the rotation.
Sign Rendon.
Move Pollock for a half bag of baseballs.
Do NOT obtain Stanton under any circumstances.
Give Roberts a year of paid vacation-put Chase Utley in the dugout and in charge.
Say hello to a 2020 championship.
I LIKE it Uncle Ned!!!
The only thing I would add to insure a 2020 championship would be either Cole or Strasburg. We’d HAVE to have one of them.
Jesse, your 1st option at top of this article (do nothing) will not get the job done and Dodgers would as you say remain too LH heavy in the offense. I would say to do what it takes to sign Rendon, and then some of the LH hitters can be moved. Also they put McKinstry on the 40 man oster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft but he is one I would put in a trade package BECAUSE he is another LHB.. Kendall is also another LHB that could be moved in the right deal.
But the bottom line is that the Dodgers had the best offense in the NL last season, and with a full year of Will Smith, the addition of Gavin Lux who has hit left handers in the minors, a full season of Alex Verdugo, and Corey Seager a full two years of recovery, the 2020 team with no changes should be better offensively than 2019. I don’t expect the Dodgers to stand pat, offensively or pitching, but this roster is very good as is.
As Billy Beane said: “The post-season is a crapshoot”. We should have lost in the NLCS in 2018, but we lucked out and made it to the WS. With Kershaw throwing to one fewer hitter and Joe Kelly only throwing one inning (or Will Smith’s fly ball hit a few yards further…), we would have been in the World Series again this year (no way StL beats this team). Dave Roberts’ lack of trust in Kenley, deserved or not, was the downfall of this club (and possibly would have resulted in us losing to Houston…) This is already a very good team that “would have, should have and could have” won it all. There are very few trades/FA signings that we can make to improve this team. There are LOTS of trades and signings we can make that will make this team worse. (Nicholas Castellanos for example…)
Well said!
Jesse, IMHO the Dodgers got to the 2018 WS because they were able to get past 2 inexperienced playoff teams in the Braves and Brewers. But in fairness, Dodgers came up against elite starting pitching with the Nats and Roberts single handedly sabotaged the team in Game 5 with his horrendous in game management and pitching decisions.
But remember what this ‘offense ‘ did in the NLDS and what it usually can do against sub par pitching. Hitting LHP in the minors is altogether different than the good LHP in MLB. If you recall Joc also had descent numbers against minor league LHP. Still team as is now is too LH hitter heavy IMHO.
Some interesting trade proposals!
Scenario 1: Pass, I guess I’m not as down on Pollock as some here. I didn’t want him and never understood the signing, but I think with him being 2 years younger than Longoria it’s more likely that he can effectively handle a left field platoon than Longoria effectively handling 3rd base over the life of their remaining contracts.
Scenario 2: I like this one. Getting a young Haniger with 3 years of control would be great. I think the proposal is realistic also. Shows potentially how valuable Maeda is with his 4 years of cheap control remaining. Maeda has to be traded this offseason while his trade value is highest. If Seattle won’t bite, how about Maeda plus others to budget conscious Oakland for A.J. Puk.
Scenario 3: I’d do this one also. White’s stock has fallen and Peters, who has a ton of potential, still strikes out to much.
Scenario 4: I don’t trade Lux. I want to see him in a Dodger uniform next year. He has stud and cheap written all over him. That said, DeJong is nice. I can pass on O’Neil and by the way, Miller from above. I don’t want to pay $24M for his age 35 and 36 seasons. He hasn’t been that good for two years. How about a package built around Maeda for DeJong?
Scenario 5: I like Britton, but want nothing to do with Stanton and his huge contract. I was interested when we needed to dump some bad contracts, but Friedman found something much better with Atlanta.
I agree with everyone, the free-agent who should be our top priority would be Rendon. Seems like a better chance a position player would live up to his big contract and Rendon is the total package.
I’d love Cole or Strasburg, but like Ron’s earlier thread said, “Pitchers Break”. With the projected salaries for these guys it’s too big of risk. They will end up being an anchor for someone. As much bitching as there is about Kershaw and Jansen, I’d hate to hear about one of these guys for the next number of years. We’ve got several young, good, cheap starters, look for another like A.J. Puk to add to the stable and beef up the bullpen.
Regarding Longoria / Pollock – I view Pollock as an old 32 whose defensive metrics have tumbled for the last 3 seasons. Longoria splits are interesting. In 2018 he hit better on the road than home (SF), in 2019 the difference was even greater: (H) .231 / .286 / .372 / .658 with 72 OPS+; (A) .279 / .364 / .507 / .870 and OPS+ 132. Get him away from SF Death Valley and his a well above average offensive third baseman whose defense remains excellent. I don’t think the trade will happen, but all around a good deal for both teams if Dodgers include an infield prospect.
I vote for 2.
Haniger Kluber and Andrew Miller for
Maeda garlick joc p Pollock ct3 and Beatty.
Luber buehler CK urias gonsolin and may in the starting rotation.
Miller to the pen
Bells Verdugo haniger Kiki outfield
I like number 2, and think it could actually happen. Three runs a close second for me, but Mancini is not a very good defensive outfielder and would likely shift to first base in 2021
Did I miss something? Why is it a foregone conclusion that Stripling is NOT a starting option? His appearance in the 2018 All Star game is not that far away. Never an ERA over 4,00 (career 3,51). Wouldn’t he have been a starter for 80% of all other MLB teams the last 3 years?
That is a fair question. I think Stripling’s versatility, being able to either start or relieve, makes him more valuable to the team than keeping him as a full time starter. Over the last several years the Dodgers have used around 10 starters per season (not counting one off starts by relievers, or minor league call up), so having Stripling in the bullpen is a real asset to the team. The other roadblocks for Stripling are the young starters Buehler, Urias, May, and Gonsolin plus those that will soon be competing for starter spots (Josiah Gray, Edwin Uceta, John Rooney, and Michael Grove). And, then there are the rumors of Dodgers pursuing a top of rotation pitcher like free agents Cole and Strasburg, or trading for Kluber.