November 6th, 2019 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 After reviewing the 2019 Dodgers performances by position (the ‘Looking Forward’ series), we can now begin to speculate on what changes will be made to improve the roster for 2020. The following is one person’s viewpoint intended to generate discussion amongst Dodgers fans as we enjoy Hot Stove League musings while waiting for spring training.
First the Dodgers 2020 roster priorities:
- Fix the bullpen
- Add starting pitching
- Balance the offense
- Control payroll relative to the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) thresholds.
(Video capture courtesy of TBS)
Enumerating the priorities is not meant to imply that they are separate and distinct issues to be addressed in a vacuum without consideration for the effect on the others, or longterm impact on the Dodgers. For example, fixing the bullpen cannot be decoupled from changes to the starting rotation, or finding a way to balance the offense, while controlling the payroll.
Obviously, free agents Gerrit Cole (starting pitcher), Stephen Strasburg (starting pitcher), Anthony Rendon (third base), Josh Donaldson (third base), and Will Smith (bullpen closer) would be significant upgrades for the Dodgers. The team has the wherewithal to sign one of these elite 2020 free agents, but might they prefer to wait until 2021 and pursue Mookie Betts?
How will the Dodgers address its 2020 roster priorities? Consider the following scenario:
Free agents:
- 31-year-old left-handed starter/reliever Drew Pomeranz for three years/$18M plus incentives based on the number of starts (if any) in a season.
- 28-year-old, right-handed hitter Nick Castellanos – five years/$75M, for left field; perhaps first base in 2021.
- 37-year-old right-handed backup catcher Russell Martin – two years/$5M (Martin will not return for 2021, so average annual value (AAV) would be $2.5M.
The AAV for those three free-agent signings would be in the neighborhood of $24M. Of course, those free agents alone will not fix all of the Dodgers issues, but it will allow other acquisitions through trades; for example:
- Austin Barnes and minor league relief pitcher Shea Spitzbarth to the Miami Marlins for RHP Ryne Stanek.
- Minor league outfielder Cody Thomas and middle infielder Errol Robinson to Tampa Bay Rays for 25-year-old right-handed hitter/utility player (and Upland, CA native) Daniel Robertson, which frees up Chris Taylor for trade.
- With the addition of Castellanos, Joc Pederson can be traded for additional pitching help, perhaps to the Indians (along with Taylor and others) for starting pitcher Corey Kluber.
- Castellanos also makes A.J. Pollock (and his enormous contract) expendable, perhaps to the Cincinnati Reds (who are looking for a center fielder so Nick Senzel can play second base). Pollock and bullpen prospect Jordan Sheffield for 30-year-old RH reliever Raisel Iglesias?
(Photo credit – Mike Ehrmann)
In round numbers, those trades could be constructed to be cost neutral (CBT AAV) for the Dodgers in 2020, and if Kluber’s 2021 option is not exercised, there would be a net savings of around $17M for that season.
Potential 2020 roster (alphabetically by position):
Starting Pitchers (5):
Bullpen (8):
- Scott Alexander
- Caleb Ferguson
- Dylan Floro
- Tony Gonsolin*
- Raisel Iglesias
- Kenley Jansen
- Joe Kelly
- Dustin May*
- Drew Pomeranz*
- Ryne Stanek
- Ross Stripling*
* – will also be used as spot starters
Catchers (2)
- Russell Martin
- Will Smith
Infielders (5)
- Gavin Lux
- Max Muncy
- Daniel Robertson
- Corey Seager
- Justin Turner
Outfielders (4)
- Cody Bellinger
- Nick Castellanos
- Kiké Hernandez
- Alex Verdugo
Utility (2)
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The permutations and combinations of player moves in the next few months are countless, the above is only one scenario. Who knows, perhaps the Dodgers make a blockbuster trade with the Red Sox (again) for Mookie Betts, or with the Mets trade for Noah Syndergaard.
What moves do you think the Dodgers will make?
The Hot Stove is blazing!
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Posted in 
Maybe some of those moves, but definitely not all of them.
Not trying to defend, merely explain why I think all of these moves could happen. I have zero inside information, so I would characterize these moves as SWAG’s (scientific wild ass guesses); scientific only insofar as I do a lot of research before writing. Regarding the trade of Barnes, my presumption is that Martin returns for one more season as the mentor for Smith, and / or Keibert Ruiz plus his seasoned leadership on and off the field; and Barnes is out of minor league options and there is no way he clears waivers. Whether he goes to the Marlins, or the Mets, or another team in need of a defensive catcher with excellent framing stats, I believe he return will be a reliever who so far has unrealized potential. Minor leaguers going to Tampa for Robertson because the Dodgers are over loaded with prospects, the Rays have too many utility players, and I don’t believe Dodgers will pay both Hernandez $5M plus as utility players. Signing Castellanos for left field (he is not subject to a qualifying offer) frees up both Pederson and Pollock for trade. That was my thinking. What do you think the Dodgers will do?
Some great thought-provoking stuff here, Jesse. Thanks!
I really like (but never even considered) the Daniel Robertson thing, but must admit that I am rather biased about him. I covered a Fan Fest fundraising event that he and his family (The Daniel Robertson Foundation) put on last January in his home town of Upland, CA. Absolutely GREAT people!
The irony is that Joe Kelly was also there. It was his first public appearance as a Dodger, having been signed by them on December 21, 2018 (to the tune of 3 years/$25M with a club option for a fourth year or a $4M buyout) … and we ALL know how that one worked out. (See above photo).
IDK what will actually happen and although Daniel Robertson would be a good pick up, he alone won’t solve too many of the obvious needs on this team and all we have to do is recall how the NLDS worked out as to why.
That’s pretty obvious Paul, Robertson was just one piece (a small one for sure) to the 2020 roster jigsaw puzzle that is being worked on by Friedman.
As much as we’re all hoping for upgrades all around the roster, I don’t think there will be much done this off-season. Impact upgrades will quite costly in cash, prospects or both. Of free agents and trade targets, demonstrable upgrades would be Rendon, Lindor, Betts, Cole, Strasburg, and LHP Smith. Donaldson could be in there too. Betances might be a bounce back candidate (Friedman’s specialty). However it shakes out, LA has a strong team in the Majors, and a robust supply of talent coming up from the minors. Ideally they upgrade with cash to free agents instead of trades in my opinion. Payroll isn’t as severe a constraint if cheap minor Leaguers keep showing up and delivering.
Completely agree, Drew. Aside from possibly losing Ryu, Martin, and Hill to free agency (although I think Martin and Hill will accept one-year/incentive-laden offers), the current (soon-to-be) 26-man and even more so 40-man rosters are loaded with talent that most teams would kill for, and this doesn’t even include what is arguably the best farm system on the planet.
In my opinion, if the Dodgers do absolutely nothing this off-season, I believe that they still have a 2020 (eighth-consecutive) NLDS-winning team. That said, my 2020 starting rotation varies significantly from Jesse’s.
My 2020 Dodgers starting rotation would be (alphabetically):
Buehler
Kershaw
Maeda
May
Urias
I would be ok with substituting Gonsolin or Stripling for Urias and/or Maeda, who is arguably the best bullpen arm on the team.
I would also not be opposed (for one second) to trading Justin Turner, Kiké Hernandez or Chris Taylor.
Fire away.
Ron, that rotation might not cut it in October. The Nats won it all due to superior starting pitching and an offense that did not choke in October. And with the exception of maybe 2nd base the Nats didn’t pull a Roberts by shuffling everyone all over the place and didn’t worry so much about the lefty/righty match ups.
The Nats won for one reason, they got hot at the right time of the season if the only thing you care about is post season
Agree.
I don’t know about the rest of you, but Kershaw and Maeda, in the rotation, doesn’t exactly give me a lot of confidence.
All good points. But I believe the time is here for the Dodgers to part with some of their minor league talent as there simply is not enough room on the roster for all of them. In addition, the Dodgers in next couple of seasons have a number of free agents after the upcoming season (Joc Pederson, Pedro Baez, Justin Turner, and Kiké Hernandez), and after 2021 season (Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Yimi Garcia, and Joe Kelly if Dodgers do not pick up his 2022, $12M option). Right now, only Corey Seager appears to be a candidate for contract extension, rather than lose players without compensation (at least half will not be made qualifying offers) I look for the Dodgers to be involved in more trades, using free agent signings only when necessary to fill immediate needs.
Hill I would waive goodbye.
RYU I heard was expected to get
The most 3 yrs 60-70 because of his injury history. Dodgers would be wise to bring him back at those rates. If we lose out in RYU must replace him by trade or free agent.
Then we need a solid right handed bat like a Nick c via free agent and then deal Pollock, Joc P, Kiki for reliever. (Not all 3in the same trade). Maybe like Jesse said joc p to Cleveland in a Kluber deal.
I’m actually surprised that Pederson finished the 2019 season with the Dodgers. I actually thought (hoped) he would have been traded at the deadline and DJ Peters called up.
DJ is a beast and a great defender. But more importantly, he bats right-handed with incredible power. He is also a So. Cal native (Glendora) and grew up a Dodger fan. Y’alls might want to keep an eye on him this spring.
I think Ryu might even come back for 3 years, $54M to stay with Dodgers. I would much rather have him in the starting rotation that either Maeda or Stripling, I have liked Castellanos for several years, but his defense was always subpar. There has been improvement, but still not good. I was thinking that Dodgers use him in LF for 2020, then move him to first base. I think his experience at third base would serve him and Dodgers well at first base.
No way in the world Cincinnati will bail out the Dodgers on the awful Pollock signing, especially after being fleeced in last years’ off season.
OK, my thinking. Pollock’s offense (fangraphs wRC+ and baseball reference OPS+) was 8% above major league average for all outfielders in 2019. Cincinnati has one of the smallest (in area) outfields in MLB which will help Pollock’s defense. If you take a look at Iglesias stats he did not have a good year and his AAV is about the same as Pollocks (around $12M); throwing in a young, bullpen pitching prospect is the sweeter.
Great Article.
I agree with your list of roster priorities. I’d add one more or maybe just elaborate on the fourth point. That would be contacting every player’s agent who will be a free agent within the next two years to discuss a contract extension with the goal of maximizing the value of these players either from a luxury tax planning standpoint or increasing trade values.
As noted, “The permutations and combinations of player moves in the next few months are countless” but both the proposed free agent signings and trades are what we have grown to expect from Friedman and nothing wrong with that.
I really like the signing of Pomeranz, but hopefully for much less than the proposed three years/$18M. He excelled in a fairly small sample as a reliever this season, but before that he wasn’t all that good. But potentially a buy low with high upside kind of acquisition.
Martin might be back, but unless they work out a trade for Barnes I think it will be Barnes or an opportunity for one of the guys down on the farm. Barnes is a quarter of the price with three years of control, very valuable in Friedman’s world.
I know it is never a good idea to “assume” anything, but that is exactly what I have done considering your first point — I assume Friedman has already had those discussions with the agents of players he wants to keep. In the case of Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernandez, the first player who accepts a reasonable contract extension as a utility player is the one who stays and the other one is trade capital. If Seager / Boras indicate that he is going to test free agency then the Dodgers may trade him now. Fair point about Pomeranz, perhaps a two year deal with vesting metrics for third year. But I think there will be several teams pursuing him which will drive up price and years. I agree with you about Barnes, if the Dodgers cannot find a team that wants him then yes he stays, with Friedman crossing his fingers that Barnes hits enough that some team will want him by the trade deadline with the Dodgers bringing up Ruiz.
You failed to address one of the biggest needs. A replacement for JT at 3rd (I know, I know . . . we all love JT, but let’s be honest: his 3b defense has slipped greatly and he can certainly be moved to 1b if need be). Why not go all the way and chase Rendon? If we don’t (can’t) get him, then we’re no worse off than now with JT at third. Pitching-wise I think we can get by without Strasburg or Cole (maybe we can resign Ryu) and add one of the lesser available starters to our stable of proven (Kersh, Buehler, maybe Hill, maybe Ryu) starters and our up and comers (Urias, May, Gonsolin, and a few others). If we do that, even without Stras and/or Cole, we still have probably the best starting staff in the league. Relief pitching? Add a Will Smith type and a health rebound from Kelly and we probably have the best relief staff in the league, too.