Is 2020 the year?

It was December 16, 2017. The Dodgers traded Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Charlie Culberson, and cash considerations to the Atlanta Braves for Matt  Kemp. This trade was all about reducing the 2018 payroll below the competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold in order to reset their base tax rate from 50% to 20% going into the 2018-19 offseason when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and possibly Clayton Kershaw were potential free agents. As Dodgers fans remember, Kershaw was signed to an extension, but Harper signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Machado became a rich San Diego Padre, while the Dodgers settled for A.J. Pollock and Joe Kelly.

Fast forward to the 2019 General Managers meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona (November 11-14), Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman reportedly made the following comments regarding the team’s 2020 plans:

  • “We’re going in wanting to add as many talented players as we can.”
  • “We can move things around.”
  • “As we sit here today, we have some future flexibility.”
  • “We have a deep pipeline of prospects, (and) a talented major league roster.”
  • “The market will dictate how we navigate.”
  • “It’s important not to be too rigid in your thinking, as you collect more information, it helps you navigate in different directions.”

For the normally reticent Friedman, his comments seem uncommonly forthright, although at this time of year baseball executives are known to be circumspect in their public statements. It is likely that his remarks are more clue-like than a revelation. For example, “…we have some future flexibility” may be a not-so-subtle reference to the money that came off the Dodgers player payroll after the 2019 season and the contracts set to expire in 2020 and 2021. After staying below the CBT thresholds in 2018 and 2019, the team is well-positioned to aggressively pursue premier free agents like starting pitcher Gerrit Cole or third baseman Anthony Rendon.

With his new contract now locked up, Friedman figures to be the most aggressive he has ever been, as he enters his sixth season as the Dodgers president of baseball operations.
(Video capture courtesy of SportsNet LA)

Payroll flexibility does not limit the Dodges to the free-agent market. With a deep and talented major league roster, four players (Pedro Baez, Kiké Hernandez, Joc Pederson, and Justin Turner) who will be free agents after the 2020 season, and with their highly regarded prospect pipeline, the team has the wherewithal to make trades to add talent, including players who are highly compensated. Remaining flexible to respond to the market and open to “move things around,” puts the team in a position to consider a number of alternatives for starting pitching, bullpen, and right-handed hitters to balance the lineup.

Dodgers trade assets may include starting pitcher Kenta Maeda, who has seemingly moved to the status of ‘trade chip’ after the recent report that he is unhappy with being shuffled by the team between starting pitcher and the bullpen. Should the Dodgers acquire a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Maeda may well achieve his goal of starting 30 to 32 times per season with another team.

Friedman, who just had his contract extended for an undisclosed amount and term, is a wonderful negotiator. Without giving a hint as to who the team may covet or players they may consider trading, he has opened the lines of communication to every free agent representative and the other 29 MLB teams in an effort to add more talent to an already very talented team.

Is some combination of Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Zach Wheeler, Corey Kluber, Javier Baez, Mitch Haniger, Nick Castellanos, Josh Donaldson, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Aaron Bummer, etc., the group the Dodgers have been pointing to since December 2017? Is 2020 the year for which the Dodgers have been waiting to once again flex the financial might of Guggenheim Baseball Group?

An excellent case can be made that the answer is ‘Yes, 2020 is the year!’

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9 Responses to “Is 2020 the year?”

  1. Boxout7 says:

    2020?

    Could be, Friedman definitely has the Dodgers in a position to answer if opportunity knocks.

    However, the front office is not about spending money to spend money. Instead, the Andrew Friedman-led front office is about spending smart money and making relatively low-budget moves turn into big impacts. This is how he got us in a position to spend big.

    Of course MLB spending is all relative, Rendon on a short-term high AAV contract might be viewed as a “low-budget” move. I don’t see Cole/Strasburg coming to the Dodgers, more likely something like Ryu and Wheeler for less cost than one of them.

    I’m most excited to see what trades get made this off-season. Which in my opinion is probably where the action is going to be other than maybe signing Ryu.

    • Jesse Pearce says:

      Rendon makes the most sense for Dodgers. Turner is a free agent after 2020 and his defense has been declining for 3 seasons. There is no one in the minors who will be ready to play third base in the next couple of seasons. Trading for a quality third baseman will be very expensive in terms of talent. Donaldson could be a short term answer, especially if Dodgers believe Hoese, Lewis, Vargas, or ??? will be ready by 2023.

  2. Dan in Pasadena says:

    Friedman isn’t going to fix something that ain’t broken. Especially with an expensive fix. So I don’t think Wheeler is in the Dodgers plans. Urias, Gonsolin and May will provide what he can (or more) for a lot less money. If he adds a starting arm I suspect it’ll be a below the radar, innings eater type acquisition – and everyone on the blogosphere will bitch he’s small market minded, a cheapskate, etc.

    I see him looking for a real difference maker bullpen piece – though maybe not a known name – and possibly more offense; either in the offseason or more likely before the trade deadline. By then he’ll know what Pollock has done and if Verdugo rebounds, not to mention Seager.

  3. Daniel B says:

    I hate to be negative, but NO, 2020 will not be the year. Stan Kasten will not spend the money. The goal of the front office is not to win, but be competitive enough to fill the stadium. They will undoubtedly go second rate and sign Drew Pomeranz and Todd Frazier, win 100 games and not understand why they cant get over the final hurdle. Championship teams need a couple of “money” performers, not guys that go 0 for 13 with 11 Ks.

    • Jesse Pearce says:

      There is so much of your comment that I disagree with. First, the Dodgers have spent big for years; for 5 years they were tax payers (almost $150M paid to MLB) because of their payroll. Winning is definitely the goal of the front office; winning puts fans in the seats, sells hats, jerseys, etc., and increases the value of the team which is most important to Guggenheim Baseball Group. Even if the Dodgers set the CBT threshold ($208M in 2020) as its max payroll (they were very close to the 2019 threshold) they have the ability to sign, or trade for, at least one elite player, and if they move a couple of contracts like Maeda, Pederson, and Taylor they would have roughly $22M more to allocate. I believe the Dodgers made an excellent offer to Bryce Harper last year, so for the right player they are willing to spend big dollars. I think the Dodgers would have gone all in to keep Manny Machado a Dodger, but his lazy attitude burned the bridge. You choose to be pessimistic, I choose to be optimistic — we will see who is right.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      I agree with Jesse almost to the word.

      Like many, it appears that you are of the opinion that Friedman – or whoever – can just write a check for a World Series trophy. Sorry, but it just doesn’t work that way.

      It also appears that you do not follow the Dodgers minor league affiliates. The Dodgers (and their fans) are absolutely blessed to have what is – hands down – THE best farm system in all of baseball. Thankfully, Andrew Friedman fully realizes this and has repeatedly shown that he is not opposed (or afraid) to call these kids up to The Show, even when several – many, in fact – are still very young. We’re talking Seager, Urias, Bellinger, Verdugo, and Lux here.

      I fully understand that you, like every other Dodger fan on the planet, are angry with how the last three (+) seasons have ended, but it is impossible to put the blame on Andrew Friedman for this. There is most certainly someone else who is on (or should be on) the hot seat here … if you get my drift.

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