October 21st, 2019 at 12:00 pm 
by Ron Cervenka It was a relatively small group of people who I told it to, maybe 10 at the most. It was sometime around May or June – back when many so-called baseball experts were beginning to say that the Dodgers were “on pace to win 104 games” and were going to make it to – and win – the 2019 World Series.
My exact words – and those who I said it to will corroborate this – were: “I’m not convinced that the Dodgers will make it past the 2019 National League Championship Series.” In fact, among those who I said it to was former MLB manager and longtime Dodgers coach and broadcaster Kevin Kennedy, who resoundingly disagreed with me.
“I think they’ll go all the way and win it all,” Kennedy replied to my very unpopular prediction.
Unfortunately (and painfully) I was right, for which I get zero satisfaction.
Although the Dodgers did hit that “on pace to win 104 games” number (106, in fact, to set a new all-time Dodgers franchise record), they not only did not make out of the 2019 NLCS, they never made it into it.
It’s not that I had any inside information or secret Sabermetrics voodoo magic to support my prediction, it was just a gut feeling that I had based on something the smartest man I ever knew – my father – told me when I was maybe 10 years old: “It’s not the best team that wins the World Series, it’s the hottest team that does.”
Obviously, I had no idea in May or June that the hottest team in September and October would end up being the buzzsaw that is the Washington Nationals. I simply figured that there would be at least one team out there that would finish the regular season hotter than Dave Roberts’ Dodgers,
Even though the Dodgers did finish their runaway 2019 regular season by winning their final seven games, those seven games were against the (eventual) NL West last-place San Diego Padres (70-92) and the (eventual) NL West third-place San Francisco Giants (77-85). At the same time, the Nationals won their final eight regular-season games, five against the (eventual) NL East fourth-place Philadelphia Phillies (81-81) and three interleague games against the (eventual) AL Central second-place Cleveland Indians (93-69). They then won the win-or-go-home NL Wild Card game against the (eventual) NL Central second-place Milwaukee Brewers (89-73).
Do you see a pattern here? Never before in my life had I wished my father (God rest his soul) wrong.
He wasn’t.
The (106-56) Dodgers were clearly the best team in the National League and finished only one game behind the (107-55) Houston Astros as the best team in all of baseball during the 2019 regular season. The Nationals, however, were – without question – the hottest team in all of baseball when it mattered most, whereas the Dodgers bats went ice cold and their manager made the absolute worst possible decisions of his managerial career with his pitching staff when it mattered most.
And here we are.
Play Ball!
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Ron solid article. However with all due respect to the hot team theory, we were up 3-1 in the top of the eighth with CK on the mound and we needed 6 outs. In the past we would have handed the ball to Kenley and walked off victorious with KJ registering a 6 out save.So the hot team theory may not apply here, it certainly did work for the nats cards series.
Back around may and June, with the way Roberts was managing the pitching and the ever revolving door of lineups, I KNEW this strategy WOULD NOT work at all in the PS. But the Dodgers did things as they have done for the year anyway. and it is obvious that Dodgers did not have the caliber of team to compete with those in the PS and certainly would be no match for the Astros in a WS. As some have said before, the Dodgers were built for the regular season but not at all for the PS.
I feel the Dodgers regular season strategy of revolving lineups to keep everyone fresh yet also rested undeniably works. Their 106 wins pretty much is the proof of the pudding.
BUT, once the post season comes I feel a set lineup with only the late inning defensive improvements necessary to hold a lead should be employed. There will always be variations due to injuries, slumps, and occasionally; having fallen behind, they will need to improve their offense to catch up, etc. but all in all it seems a lineup of the hottest and most “clutch” hitters makes the most sense.
Dan, as I heard it, 106 wins in the regular season was great, BUT nobody cares really, since we were not able to win those 11 required games in October, where it matters most. I cannot imagine anyone cares too much about the 106 regular season wins against mostly sub par teams while now seeing it’s going on 32 years since the last WS win.
Just remember, without most of those 106 wins they don’t get a chance at those 11 wins.
Dan
all points considered, isn’t using the shuffling lineups the same as playing the hot hands. Bellinger didn’t homer but did contribute quite a bit with the glove and getting into scoring position, Seager however was a disaster. I think the dodgers lost simply because the bullpen was not able to hold a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning(dave Roberts) has to accept the blame to some degree here because KJ never entered a 5th game and final game of a playoff series and we lost. That’s
a nono and a fireable offense in my humble opinion.
If we had acquired the bullpen help at the trade deadline that we needed we probably would have advanced against the Nats. This is the true failure here, not anything else.For a 106 win team to have such a poor bullpen is strange.
But the weakness was discussed by everyone was apparent to all.
To advance and win the series we must obtain this offseason a left handed complement to KJ to lock up innings 8-9. Then you use Kelly, Sadler Maeda Kolarek to pick up the rest.
Actually, Steve, Kenley did enter game five and recorded the final two outs. Unfortunately the Dodgers were trailing 7-3 in the tenth at the time.
Once the Nationals won the Wild Card game, what I feared mostly was “the law of averages”.
It just seemed that it was time for them to get passed the NLDS and as it happened, I was right, unfortunately.
One thing is true and that is many say pitching ultimately wins championships. Now figure that even though the Dodger hitters struck out 64 times in those 5 games, they STILL in the long run outscored the Nats 22 to 21. That in of itself tells me we lacked the pitching over all to win this series, especially when Dodgers were up 3 to 1 in the 8th inning of game 5 and the rest shall we say is history!
You were right, but you should have been wrong. So many things just didn’t work out in the series. In game 4, Joc missed a bases loaded / clearing double, then the storm came and knocked down Muncy’s homer for sure and maybe Corey’s oppo shot to left as well. Will Smith hit a walk off to the warning track that goes out of Dodger Stadium 99% of the time, according to it’s launch angle and exit velocity. On top of all that, We outscored the Nats in the series. If you want to call that a buzzsaw, so be it. I saw it as a pretty evenly played series that was stolen from us because our manager has the knack of stealing defeat from the jaws of victory.
After all these years of post – season disappointments , it’s time to acknowledge that specific fundamentals of the game that may be just good enough for the Dodgers to win in July do nor work as well in October. when a short series demands shut- down pitching from a bullpen and significant adjustments to hitting ( breaking pitches ) in clutch situations . At no time during the season , did the Dodgers inspire total confidence in either category despite their considerable victory total.