July 9th, 2019 at 10:30 am 
by 0799291000348 Gleaning information from various sources, to date, the Dodgers have signed 25 of their 41 selections in the 2019 Rule 4 Draft (the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft), including their top two picks: college hitters Kody Hoese (third baseman) and Michael Busch (first base / second base / left field). Only three of the Dodgers top 21 draft picks remain unsigned, including their second-round supplemental draftee right-handed high school pitcher Jimmy Lewis; community college right-handed pitcher Andrew Baker (16th round); and University of Oklahoma left-hander Braidyn Fink (19th round).
Although he was selected in the middle of the draft, Fink was a highly-regarded pitcher before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2019 season. As a sophomore, Fink showed a fastball that topped out at 94 mph and a wipeout slider, as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA. The Dodgers have had success in drafting high profile pitchers recovering from TJ surgery. Will Fink be another? Or will he return to OU as a red-shirt junior to try and increase his status (and signing bonus) for the 2020 Draft?
(Photo credit – Ty Russell)
Jimmy Lewis is the plumb for the Dodgers. Signing him would definitely put a large bow on the Dodgers 2019 draft. But how much money will it take for him to walk away from his scholarship commitment to Louisiana State University. According to draft signing rules, Lewis’ slot value as the second round supplemental pick is $793,000; doubtful that is enough for him to sign with the Dodgers. However, the Dodgers have the ability to pay him more – a lot more (almost double) – by signing several players for less than their assigned slot values, and are willing to pay a 75 percent penalty for exceeding their total bonus pool by five percent.
(Photo credit – John Gutierrez)
Will Lewis walk away from his LSU commitment for roughly $1,575,500? If the Dodgers sign him for more, they will forfeit their 2020 first round draft pick in a year that is predicted to be a very talented group of prospects.
We will soon know, as the deadline for signing this year’s draft selections is Friday, July 12 at 5:00 PM (ET).
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I honestly don’t believe it will take THAT much money to reel Lewis in (somewhere between $1 and $1.2 million seems more realistic regarding his talent and overall draft rank according to MLB). At the very least, they should be able to lure him away from his LSU commitment with the current amount saved from those under-slot signings…unless of course he NEVER intended to sign with an MLB team from the get-go and was headed to college anyway like 1st rounder JT Ginn opted for last year.
As for the other tough signs, Fink is a rather intriguing one as he could return from his TJ rehab stronger than before like Walker Buehler and most recently Zach Willeman did prior. He’d be solid compensation in case it turns out that Lewis kid was just stringing the Dodgers along the whole time. Other notabale ones like prepsters Trey LeFleur and Brennan Milone as well as JUCO stud OF Chet Allison appear to be fully set on sticking to their respective college commitments no matter how much additional bonus money is thrown their way from what I’ve been hearing of late. Still feel that Ibarra kid could be had for the right price, though. Hard to see the Dodgers pocketing that extra savings at this point, lol.
I hope you are correct ($1MM to $1.2MM) about Lewis as it will leave more than enough to sign Fink. Unfortunately, if Lewis does not sign then Dodgers overall draft spending pool is reduced by $793,000. By my quick calculations, the Dodgers could spend roughly $400,000 on other drafted players in rounds 11 through 40. For example, Fink could be signed for around $525,000 without losing a draft pick. I don’t think Dodgers mind losing a high school prospect to college and getting the compensatory pick the following year. Some year the Dodgers will draft a couple of players worth much more than their slot values and the Dodgers will ante-up, willing to sacrifice the next year’s first round selection.
Well Dustin May got JUST slightly under $1 million to sign back in the much more talent-loaded 2016 draft and Lewis’s ceiling is virtually on the same level as the former. Matter of fact, should the Dodgers end up going beyond the $1.27 million mark to try and sign him I would definitely consider that overpaying and they probably would be better off taking that 2020 comp pick instead for that matter. We’ll see how it shakes out soon enough. My gut feeling tells me that kid’s gonna get signed for around what I previously expected in terms of above-slot value with possibly just enough left over to lure another mid-to-late round draftee away from college like your Fink for example.
Lewis signed today!
We will soon know how much Lewis received. The Dustin May and Jimmy Lewis comparison is interesting. May received a bonus of $997,500, 67.2% above the slot value for the third round pick. If you apply the same percentage to Lewis he would receive $1.326MM signing bonus as the 2s pick. I went back and compared the Baseball Scouting reports of May and Lewis — Lewis’ is marginally better. If the Dodgers have the money, which it seems that it does, do not lose Lewis for the sake of a couple hundred thousand dollars which is petty cash for the Dodgers. Finally, consider this; the 2 high school pitchers taken after Lewis have signed for $2MM and $2.5MM – Andrew Dalquist and Matthew Allan.
I’m gonna add another prep pitcher from this year’s draft who comps favorably to Lewis in terms of size, stuff, and upside: Jack Kochanowicz, who was taken 92nd overall in the 3rd round by the Angels. He signed for around $1.25 million, $612,400 over the allotted slot value for that pick. If the Dodgers signed Lewis using Kochanowicz as a measuring stick for how much to offer him, they probably wound up coming VERY close to losing that future 1st round pick. If so, either tells me they couldn’t afford to lose that kid this late in the signing period…or they figured they weren’t gonna sign any of the notable mid-to-late round draftees who pretty much have their minds firmly fixed on their college commitments no matter how much they were able to save from the recent Lewis signing (if they managed to save any money at all). Meh, doesn’t matter. Dodgers finally have all their top picks locked up as of today and THAT’S the bottom line folks!
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UPDATE: Jimmy Lewis signed for around $1.1 million, exactly where I expected him to land regarding his projected above-slot amount. On top of that, still leaves the Dodgers with a few hundred grand left to work with in terms of getting at least one of those last-minute draft holdouts to forego their college commitment in favor of joining the ranks of one of the most formidable farm systems in all of MLB. This day couldn’t have turned out any better for the Dodgers, my goodness…
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Just heard recently that the Dodgers were actually able to sign Fresno City College OF/24th round pick Chet Allison away from his strong Arkansas commitment with their remaining “wiggle room” money after finally nailing down that Texas Lewis kid the other day. Not sure what the exact signing amount was, but based on how adamant the Dodgers were in pursuing him of late they probably wound up using most if not ALL of it. Man, of all the draft picks they were able to lock down this year this one in particular could turn out to be the biggest steal of the bunch. Dodgers did well pillaging Fresno’s ranks by taking him and his former teammate/9th-rounder Alec Gamboa for that matter.
nice call