No intention of minimizing the Dodgers bullpen issues this season, they are significant and must be addressed in order for the team to reach its goal of World Series Champions. But there is a contributing factor that is obvious to those baseball fans who regularly watch the team’s games and / or research Major League Baseball’s advanced fielding metrics; more specifically, the defensive liabilities of Joc Pederson at first base and A.J. Pollock in center field.
Fangraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) to compare MLB player’s positional fielding. UZR puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved – or gave up – through his fielding prowess (or lack thereof). UZR / 150 projects the player’s performance to an average number of fielding chances for a full season. Based on their respective UZR / 150 ratings for 2019, Pollock is the lowest rated center fielder in MLB (with 250 or more innings played at the position) and Pederson is next to last amongst first basemen with 100 or more innings played at first base.
Inexplicably, the Dodgers have replaced Alex Verdugo in center field with A.J. Pollock – a UZR / 150 difference of 35 runs. The difference in having Joc Pederson at first base rather than Max Muncy statistically forecasts another 34 run differential. A total of 69 runs in a season will take a toll on any pitching staff.
With a 14 game lead in the NL West (and Pollock’s current 4-year / $55 million contract which runs through 2022 with a player option for 2023), it appears that the Dodgers will not be making any position changes, giving Pollock and Pederson more time to ‘improve’ their fielding, even though they continue to betray the pitching staff.
Which MLB first baseman’s UZR / 150 is worse than Joc Pederson’s?
Sorry, Dodger fans, that would be Matt Beaty … and by a huge margin.
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Great piece, Jesse. Glad I’m not the only one who sees it this way.
In no way am I a UZR / WAR / RAR / RAA (or any of the other acronyms that I have no clue about) guy, but I DO have 20-20 vision (thanks to Lasix) and I know – and believe – what I see with my own two eyes and you are spot-on.
In the simplest of terms, the money plays … even if it kills us.
I already mentioned this in one of my comments a few days ago so I’m glad you got on the ball Jesse and let it be known to the rest of the Dodger community what a terrible mistake this team is doing putting some of these players out of position when they should know by now their collective defensive effort’s gonna suffer for it down the road. Just reinforces my stance that if they think Pederson can moonlight at 1B when not in LF, then they’re basically saying he’s expendable and ought to be dealt while his value’s still fairly high. Doing that would not only move Pollock over to LF (where he can platoon with Matt Beaty, no problem), it would finally leave Verdugo alone in CF where he’s been their best defensive option so far this season (outside of Bellinger, maybe).
Update: it isn’t just Pollock and Pederson. Since the All Star break the team has committed a hard-to-believe 16 errors, with Seager (4) and Muncy (5) contributing more than half. Lack of focus? Muncy trying to play 3 different defensive positions (1b, 2b, and 3b)? Team needs to get this straightened out; it is exacerbating the bullpens problems.
many, if not most, of those errors wouldn’t be on the books with a better 1B. mark grace used to tell his guys “throw it in the dirt. i can dig it out of the dirt but i cant dig it out of the stands” when joc and muncy dont dig out it out, the error is, of course, on the throw. muncy is playing a decent jeff kent like 2B, (limited range) maybe we’d be better off w/ kike at 1st when he and max are on the right side? what i do know is that extra outs are charging the pitching staff extra wear and tear.