July 12th, 2019 at 8:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Although Major League Baseball’s annual All-Star Game is – and always has been – an exhibition game and has no impact whatsoever on regular season standings or statistics (and thankfully no longer determines home-field advantage for the World Series), it is probably safe to say that most Dodger fans pull for the National League to win because… well… the Dodgers are in the National League. But for as meaningless – albeit (usually) entertaining – as the annual Midsummer Classic game may be, when a Dodgers pitcher is tagged with the loss, it generally doesn’t sit well with die-hard Dodger fans.
On Tuesday evening, Dodgers left-hander and future Hall of Famer (more on that in a moment) Clayton Kershaw was (unfortunately) tagged with the loss of the 2019 MLB All-Star Game after allowing only one run on two hits (including a RBI double by Houston’s Michael Brantley), while walking none and striking out one in his one inning of work; unfortunate because San Francisco Giants closer Will Smith turned a 3-1 game into a 4-1 game when he gave up a seventh-inning solo home run to Texas Rangers slugger Joey Gallo in the eventual 4-3 American League win … if you catch my drift.
Although there is no hard-and-fast number or textbook shelf life for a major league starting pitcher, especially for one who has never had Tommy John surgery, tossing 2,195.1 innings over 11-plus MLB seasons is definitely at the upper end of the spectrum. Simple math tells us that this equates to a hair under 183 innings per season; this not taking into account that there is still half a season to go in that 12th year. Yet this is exactly what the 31-year-old Dallas, TX native and Dodgers 2006 first-round draft pick has done over those 11-plus MLB seasons.
During his (thus far) 11.5-year MLB career (and that ‘more on that in a moment’ thing), Kershaw has:
- won three NL Cy Young awards (2011, 2013, 2014)
- won a NL MVP title (2014)
- won the pitching Triple Crown (2011)
- appeared in eight All-Star Games (2011-17, 2019)
- won five ERA titles (2011-14, 2017)
- won a Gold Glove (2011)
- won MLB’s Player of the Year title (2014)
Any way you slice it, these are Hall of Fame numbers and probably first-ballot Hall of Fame numbers.
But you don’t have to be a Sabermetrics or analytics expert to see that Kershaw is not the same pitcher he was even a year ago and most certainly not several years ago.
Through his 15 starts thus far this season, Kershaw has a ridiculously good 7-2 record in his 99.0 innings pitched. And even though he currently has a very good 3.09 ERA through the first half of the 2019 season with at least another 15 likely starts in the second half, he is at risk of finishing the season with a plus-3 ERA for the first time since his rookie season in 2008, when he posted a 5-5 record and a 4.26 ERA. Since then, he has had only one other .500 season (8-8 in 2009) and has always had a sub-3 ERA.
In no way is this to even remotely suggest that Kershaw cannot or will not finish the season with yet another outstanding record or that he cannot or will not end up with a sub-3 ERA. It is simply to say that, like all of us, he isn’t what he used to be. And in case you were wondering (or perhaps forgot), he agreed to a very lucrative three-year / $93 million contract extension on November 2, 2018 (after opting out of his previous contract) that guarantees him $23.3 million for each season through 2021. It also includes several equally lucrative performance bonuses:
In other words, Clayton Kershaw isn’t going anywhere anytime soon – period.
All of this being said, there still isn’t anyone I would rather hand the ball to in a must-win Game-7 situation, which speaks volumes about Charley’s and Cali’s father.
There also isn’t anyone who I would rather have as a tutor for the many up-and-coming young guns, like Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray and Leo Crawford, to name only a few.
So, is Clayton Kershaw running out of bullets as he enters the second half of his 12th major league season?
Perhaps.
But I sure wouldn’t want that gun pointed at me.
Play Ball!
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Posted in 
I opened this thinking “no Ron”, and found myself loving the truth you brought. Thanks Ron!!
Getting hit by a bullet from a BB gun is still incredibly painful.
Kershaw is definitely not the pitcher he once was, but whenever he’s on the mound I keep rooting for him to get outs and complete innings. I hate to see him fail.
I’m just gonna be my usual objective self here. Dodgers basically handed out a 3-year/$93 mil extension to a rapidly aging No. 4 starter who still thinks he can live in the past out there on the mound even though he no longer has the power behind his arsenal to get it done that way anymore. It’s rather fortunate that Kershaw was still able to put up a fairly decent 1st half to this season, but I can’t help but see similar signs of decline in him as I saw in his former teammate Dan Haren a few years back. All I’m gonna say is, moment the Dodgers enter postseason play again they better have Ryu, Buehler, and Hill (hopefully) ready to go as their starters for Games 1-3 from that point onward. Shoot, I would go so far as to have Maeda and Urias working in tandem in a Game 4 before even entertaining the thought of starting Kershaw in another playoff game after what went down the last two years.
Of course, had Kershaw finally incorporated a usable change-up like he should’ve done three seasons ago I doubt we would even be having this discussion. Heck, it only took Baez two years to break in that pitch for good and look how much more effective it’s made him overall as a late-inning/high-leverage reliever. What’s Clayton’s excuse for not following suit at this point, foolish pride???
exactly !!!
I agree, Kershaw is a shadow of his former selF. That is why we need a right handed power starter if we want to progress in the playoffs. Wheeler is the answer,not Boyd. Wheeler is a rental and won’t cost a ton of prospects. Kershaw and Hill against the Yankee right handed power lineup will spell disaster.We also need another right handed bat like Marte of the Pirates. Barnes must go and leave Kiki on the bench.I would leave Urias in the bullpen this year and make him a starter next year.
To the response that the Dodgers would be better off with a Maeda Urias tandem in a game 4, you, sir, could not possibly be ANYMORE….correct. I would be more comfortable with Russell Martin on the mound than Kershaw. His complete ineptitude in the postseason is mind boggling….and his albatross “thanks for everything” contract extension reeks of Kobe Bryant’s final deal.
Call Clayton Kershaw an aging 4th starter is a joke. The team wins 70% of his starts, his average start is 7 innings 2 to 3 runs. His Era is top 12 in the league. The bullpen gave away at least 3 wins of his this year.
A great team player a future first ballot hall of famer and a great human being.
I hope he retires a dodger with 2 championship rings.
LUV Kershaw! But, he even admits to being stubborn to a fault, especially when it comes to employing a change-up in his arsenal of pitches.
Excerpt from April Think Blue LA article: “In Kershaw’s own words; “… in past years, I’ve been stubborn. I’ve had success, and I’ve wanted to do the same things over and over again. As you progress in your career, there’s times when you have to make some adjustments. Maybe I haven’t been as fast with that as I’ve needed to at times.” He believes he can master the change-up if he prioritizes it; “…and the only way I (Kershaw) will prioritize it is if the other stuff doesn’t work…I’m not there yet.”
It’s time Clayton! Don’t put it off any longer! A change-up, even if it doesn’t yet meet your standards, will mess with hitters minds, and opposing coaches game plans. And, in time, your commitment to excellence will develop the pitch into one of the games best.
Imagine the word spreading amongst Major League Baseball hitters; Clayton Kershaw is throwing a legit change-up!
Do it Clayton, it’s time!”
It’s a consensus; Kershaw isn’t what he was, but I wouldn’t classify him yet as #4 Starter. A #3, yes, and still able to start in the post season, but with a very quick hook.
I feel it’s time for Urias to be that ‘Co-Ace’ we’ve been seeing develop in the 2nd half of 2019; Buehler and Urias #1/#2 is very formidable. Also agree that the Dodgers should go get a power arm at the deadline ala Kubler/Scherzer/Bauer
Too bad MLB did away with the waiver wire deadline or else I would make a beeline for Scherzer if I really wanted to go for broke in terms of making sure the Dodgers are in prime position to get it done, PERIOD! Otherwise, I could possibly see them going after hometown guy Bauer (been coveting him for years on the down low, truth be told). Not quite Scherzer’s level as a truly dominant rotation arm, but he is younger and just as driven on the mound by comparison. Kluber due to his age, recent arm injury, and “rental” status I wouldn’t bother overpaying for if he were made available. Could be someone worth looking into on a 2-year deal at season’s end if the Indians don’t deal him at the trade deadline and end up declining his team option. He’s gotta get healthy first, though.
Dodgers cannot take a chance on Kluber even though Indians have team options for 2020 ($17.5MM) and 2021 ($18MM); the recent injury is too problematic. Better to hope that Hill will be 100% in August / September. Bauer? A clubhouse PITA from the time he was with AZ and is still a problem in Cleveland — PASS!If Dodgers want to add a starter in order to send Maeda to the bullpen, then Detroit’s Boyd; Toronto’s Stroman; Baltimore’s Bundy; Cincinnati’s Roark; or make a big splash and get Mets’ de Grom. Better yet, go with the current starters plus Gonsolin and/or May, and improve the bullpen
Gettin’ yourself all worked up over nothin’, eh buddy? That’s alright, Dodgers are not gonna get any of those guys at the deadline. In the end, it’s gonna come right down to that bullpen anyway…which reminds me, gonna be looking forward to your second installment regarding potential trade deadline targets.
Btw, your opinion regarding Bauer is duly noted. That said, I still wouldn’t mind seeing him pitch in Dodger blue (lol).
😉
Will put finishing touches on Part 2 today. Much more complicated than Part 1. Reds are looking to improve and make post season, so Roark is not likely to be traded. Toronto would be an interesting trade partner, Giles and Stroman for a package of prospects plus Stripling and Yimi Garcia. Maeda to the bullpen along with Giles, Stroman to the starting rotation. Bundy? His splits away from Camden Yards are outstanding this season, young pitcher with huge upside needs a change of scenery and better coaching.