June 3rd, 2019 at 12:00 pm 
by 0799291000348 For Dodgers fans who enjoy delving deeper dive into organizational depth and player development, the Top-30 Prospects lists published by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline are excellent resources. But with all due respect to the professionals who prepare and maintain their respective Top-30 Prospects lists, some players continue to be included due to their potential, even though, over time, their potential has yet to be realized.
For example, consider the following excerpts from a Dodgers Top-30 pitching prospect:
- Has wow stuff, yet little feel for using it. He doesn’t maintain the tempo of his delivery, or keep it in sync, diminishing the quality of his pitches and leading to scattershot control…there are questions about his dedication that won’t help him reach it. (MLB Pipeline)
- Melted down at Double-A Tulsa in 2018…had nearly as many walks (43) as strikeouts (52) in 48.1 innings… both his upper 80s slider and 12-to-6 curveball flash above-average-to-plus, but he has no control of either of them. (His) control is well below-average and results in frequent non-competitive pitches; reportedly left the team briefly in September after a disagreement with management. (Baseball America)
Most Dodgers fans quickly recognize that the scouting reports are those of 23-year-old right-hander Yadier Alvarez. Signed by the Dodgers in 2015 for $16,000,000 (plus another $16,000,000 as a tax penalty), there is no doubt that Alvarez has the potential to be a terrific pitcher. But his career Double-A stats are underwhelming: 4.66 ERA with a less-than-stellar 7.6 walks-per-nine-innings tag. “Potential has a shelf-life.” – Margaret Atwood, author of “Cat’s Eye.”
What about the following scouting reports for another Top-30 prospect, an outfielder:
- Has drawn comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury in his prime, but it won’t matter if he doesn’t hit. Scouts aren’t sold that he will because he doesn’t recognize pitches particularly well and misses hittable offerings in the strike zone. (MLB Pipeline)
- Problem is, he has yet to find a workable setup at the plate, resulting in a terrifying number of late, non-competitive swings. With an upright, inanimate stance, doesn’t catch up to velocity and freezes on breaking balls … pitchers who throw strikes neutralize him. (Baseball America)
Correct – Jeren Kendall – the Dodgers first round selection in the 2017 MLB First-Year Player Draft; considered by Baseball America to be a legit five-tool talent, but has yet to play above the Advanced Single-A level. Now 23 years old, the left-hand hitting, right-hand throwing Kendall has only slashed .223 / .310 / .377 / .688 and owns a 31 percent strikeout rate over his three-year professional career; certainly disappointing for any prospect, but not deserving of Top-30 inclusion.
Both Alvarez and Kendall have the talent to one day play for the Dodgers. But as our country’s 30th president Calvin Coolidge once wrote: “Nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.”
Do these players have the persistence to make-it? To be determined. But until they begin to fulfill their potential, they do not deserve Top-30 recognition.
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Good write-up, Jesse. I agree that some of these baseball sites need to do a better job of putting up those prospect lists because like you’ve already stated: potential ALONE doesn’t necessarily warrant consideration (especially on a Top 30 list where you would expect the outlook to be a bit more streamlined overall, lol).
And between Alvarez and Kendall, it looks as if Kendall might finally be turning a corner this season for High-A Rancho. Even though his batting average still remains low, his OBP continues to climb and he was actually getting into a groove at the plate until a shoulder injury placed him on the IL back in mid-April. I still don’t see him making the bigs in a Dodger uniform, but he stands a good chance at making the bigs at this rate compared to that $16 million-dollar Cuban washout Alvarez. Geez, at least Puig was able to get SOMETHING out of his tremendous raw talent if for only a little while. This Alvarez kid, if not for having one of the best arms in the entire minor-league system, would’ve been sent on the first plane ride back to his homeland in disgrace for wasting the Dodger brass’ time every step of the way. If I had to redo that Dodger Top 30 list, I’d swap those two out with bonafide sleeper Andre Jackson (keep an eye on that guy) and his current teammate/C prospect Jair Camargo (19-year old Venezuelan starting to break out down in Low-A ball right now).
Speaking of which, gonna do a write-up on who the Dodgers take in the first round of the Draft that’s set to go down a few hours from now? I already have a few names in mind that the Dodgers should pinpoint with their two first-round picks, but I’ll hold off on listing them until they finish selecting their choices…
Correction: I meant to say COLOMBIAN regarding Camargo’s nationality.
Last question first, yes — I am planning on writing about draft picks each day. I agree with you about Jackson moving to the Top-30. Camargo looks like a good choice as well, neck-and-neck with a personal favorite of mine Hunter Feduccia, but I would add Niko Hulsizer before either of the young catchers. IMO Devin Mann is making a strong case for moving into the Top-30. I did not want to make the piece overly long, but I believe Max Gamboa should replace of Zach Willeman, and Jackson could replace Josh Sborz. Thanks for reading, enjoy exchanging comments about the Dodgers prospects.
You’re welcome, buddy. Likewise on my end. Wow, I just realized how loaded that Low-A Great Lakes club really is the moment you started dropping more names from that roster. Might as well add Dillon Paulson to that list while we’re at it, lol! That team is STILL leading all of pro-baseball in walks drawn by a wide margin, too. Last year on another Dodger blog site, I mentioned how the next big wave of Dodger prospects was gonna mainly come from the group that’s currently on that Great Lakes team. Guess their record as it stands now speaks for itself for once.
😉
Btw, will be looking forward to those draft write-ups coming down the pipe soon. If the Dodgers wind up picking their first two players that just happen to be on my short list, I’m gonna be one happy camper!