December 9th, 2018 at 8:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Make no mistake about it, the Dodgers use of analytics in determining who pitches and who hits in today’s game isn’t going away anytime soon. In fact, the smart money says it will never go away … not ever.
…or will it?
This past Thursday, LA Times sports columnist Dylan Hernandez ran an article that suggests that Dodgers oft-controversial All-Star outfielder Yasiel Puig, who will enter his final season of team control in 2019 and will be a free agent in 2020, is “disgruntled” over his limited playing time due to the Dodgers excessive platooning based solely on analytics; something that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts are heavily invested in.
Hernandez wrote:
“A .209 hitter this year against left-handed pitchers, Puig was disgruntled by how he was limited to playing against right-handers, according to people familiar with his thinking who spoke under the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject. The frustration was said to affect his play, and Puig is now described as distrustful of management and open to playing for another team.”
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Needless to say, if there is any truth to Hernandez’s article, Puig is in a classic catch-22 situation. In order to land a potential high-dollar free agent contract in 2020, he needs to have a standout 2019 season; something that may prove difficult if he isn’t on the field (almost) every day. The blatantly obvious problem with this is that it goes against every rule in Friedman’s and Roberts’ analytics handbook.
Puig’s argument is most certainly not without merit. Check this out:
During the 2017 season, Puig hit .288 with 24 home runs and 64 RBI against right-handers and .183 with two home runs and 10 RBI against lefties. This past season he went .297 / 19 / 48 and .209 / 4 / 15 respectively. And while Friedman and Roberts might see this as just cause to keep Puig’s bat, glove and unbelievable throwing arm out of games against lefties, doing so against right-handers borders on insanity.
But alas, it is what it is, and there have been endless rumors that Friedman will make every effort to work Puig into a trade package during this week’s Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. That being said and with this new ‘disgruntled employee’ talk, the return on the extremely popular and eccentric bat-licking outfielder might not live up to Friedman’s analytic-driven hopes and expectations.
Stay tuned…
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Get what you can for Puig before ST and don’t let this fester into something bigger and become a distraction. I don’t see the Dodgers offering Puig a contract extension and unlikely to extend an $18MM QO after the season considering the depth of the OF roster and prospects. Obviously obtain the best value possible, but it may require taking back another player on a similar expiring contract.
If the Dodgers intend to keep playing as they have been over the past two years or so, it looks like only the players who are happy with this will remain with the team. So far they’ve been very successful, if you don’t count the World Series.
How can you not count the World Series when talking success?
This is going to fester into a huge problem as controllable players approach free agency. We’re talking about them potentially losing millions of dollars here.
This is a breeding ground for analytics-based teams to be built entirely on controllable pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Eventually, no free agents will want to sign with the Dodgers.
This issue will only get worse over the next couple of years as players approach free agency.
I’m not saying that the Dodgers should be happy with the status-quo (not winning the World Series), I’m just saying that players should be happy that the team is winning regardless of how often they are in the lineup. It seems to me, that this is how this team is set up to win and eventually will win the World Series. Of course I hope some will develop into real stars or the team will sign FAs that will play everyday.
I think you have completely missed the point, Joe. Guys approaching free agency – and there will be quite a few over the next couple of years – need to play a lot during their walk year in order to increase their free agency value. THIS is what Puig (and others) are “disgruntled” about.
There is no disputing that they all want to win a WS title, but the cold, hard truth, which I think you are missing, is that it’s ALL about the money.
No one cheered on his teammates more than Puig. This entire thing is a bunch of BS. I’m sure there… https://t.co/jQq4pCURuU
Puig’s batting splits show why “Andrew Friedman and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts are heavily invested in analytics”. Playing the percentages is always a sound strategy.
That said, I’d be disappointed in Puig or any other player who didn’t have the confidence in themselves to believe they could hit ANYONE, regardless which arm the pitcher throws with. I believe Puig is extremely confident in his abilities and sees himself as a potential superstar heading into his age 28 season.
Seems to be a big disconnect on 28 yr old Puig’s value. What’s he worth? Who among us really knows. Was he a problem in the clubhouse? Didn’t seem like it. In fact, seems like he has been a pretty good citizen since being sent down a few years ago. Looks to be in top shape and must be stretching since the hamstrings don’t seem to be a problem any longer. Looked to be working hard with Turner Ward also.
What’s the free-agent competition cost? Harper, yeah i’d take him in a nano-second if he cost the same as Puig, but he doesn’t. A.J. Pollock, 31 yrs old wants 5 yrs, $80M after turning down the QO and he’s been injury prone. Michael Brantley, 32 yrs old wants 3yrs, $60M and he’s also been injury prone.
I just don’t see the negative value that some do with Puig and his contract situation. His projected salary in 2019 is $11M and Dodgers have the ability to offer a QO for 2020, means we control his age 28 and 29 yr old seasons for a total salary less than $30M or receive a draft pick if he declines the QO in 2020.
I believe the rumors of Puig’s demise have been greatly exaggerated and I see him back with the Dodgers in 2019. That said, Dodgers and Cleveland match up too well for something not to happen if the rumors are even close to being accurate. Puig could be the guy Cleveland wants a deal built around. I’d rather send Verdugo.
Agree on every level. Puig is getting better each year. He is also the strongest guy on the team, bar none.
He needs to be in the line-up every day … Dodgers or otherwise.
Ron, I concur that Puig needs to be in lineup everyday if he remains here, and that would be the only way he can improve against LHP. I cannot blame him or other Dodger players if they are indeed disgruntled about this platooning obsession. But the problem just may be that these players on this team are platooned as a result of being bad against one side a pitchers throws from. But if players are not given the opportunity to hit against both sides of a pitcher, there in is a reason they are made to be marginal players at best.
How many chances do you give a player before deciding that there are better options? Over last 2 seasons Puig has had almost 300 plate appearances (roughly half a season) facing LH’ers with slash line around .196/.293/.318/.611. those are stats that make an overwhelming argument for platooning.
My point (and Dylan Hernandez’s) is that Puig is the anti-analytics guy. Whereas he is supposed to be better against LHP, he clearly is not, but he is very effective against RHP. But because Friedman’s analytics say that left-handed hitters are better against RHP, whenever there is a RHP on the mound, they play and Puig sits. This is the entire crux of Puig’s disgruntlement.
Sit him against LHP, not RHP.
What is Puig worth? Based on fangraphs WAR value calculation for his 2018 performance, Puig is worth the equivalent of $14.8MM if he was a FA. Same calculation for others: Brantley $28.1MM; Pollock $20.3MM; Harper $27.8; Kiké Hernandez $26MM; Chris Taylor $24.8MM; Joc Pederson $21.9MM; Cody Bellinger $29.1MM. Matt Kemp $13.1MM and Puig value calculations are both substantially below fellow OF’ers Pederson, Bellinger, Hernandez, and Taylor — Dodgers are in a better position going with some combination of those OF’ers and trading both Kemp and Puig. For me, I would rather retain Verdugo who is under team control for 6 years. My frustrations with Puig: continued base running gaffes after 5 years of ML service, similarly failing after 5 years to hit cutoffs, with all of the time spent with Ward (seemingly extra batting practice every day) his reverse splits against LH pitchers, and obvious sulking when things do not go his way. Can Dodgers afford to offer him a QO after 2019, obviously yes but be prepared for him to accept the deal and taking $18MM that cab be better spent on other team needs.
I sure don’t get where fangraphs is coming from. Brantley more valuable than Harper? Not in my world.
Joc, 25 HRs, .248 BA, .321 OBP, .843 OPS
Puig, 23 HRs, .267 BA, .327 OBP, .820 OPS
Where does all this extra value for Pederson come from?
Bellinger is on my no-trade list, but I sure don’t remember thinking of him worth $29.1M last year. Especially while watching his post-season .115 BA and .385 OPS.
For Puig’s $14.8M last year, we got a .300 BA and .855 OPS in the post-season.
Fangraphs doesn’t pass the eye test.
As I wrote, the values are based on 2018 WAR performance which includes defense. I don’t know the calculation used by fangraphs (but it is regarded as a good statistical resource) but WAR includes players defense and as you know Puig’s defense was in total around replacement value and Harper’s well below average. Overall I am not a fan of WAR, but it is the only calculation that I can find that attempts to value in dollars a players overall performance. By the way, eye test puts Puig’s defense last year as poor IMO.
Ron says what I have already talked about a while ago in regards to potential FA’s. with the Dodger’s analytic platoon to obsession philosophy, NO FA will want to come here, the fear being them made into marginal players because of platooning. If Puig can be traded fin the right deal that addresses team needs then OK. But beings that Puig has not done well against LHP for a couple of years, it is necessary for Dodgers to find some additional RH bat that hits them well enough. A side not here, I do not believe Verdugo will be the player some thinks he will be. He is another LHB in a lineup that is still LH heavy and he won’t address the problems against LHP by himself.
Ron, I am confused — but that is not unusual for me. But in one comment you wrote “He (Puig) needs to be in the line-up every day … Dodgers or otherwise.” But in your reply to my comment noting his struggles against LH pitching over last 2 seasons you wrote “Sit him against LHP, not RHP.”
If he must be sat. Kinda thought that was obvious.
This isn’t just about Puig,I think Hill want’s to get as far away from Roberts as he can.
Would not be surprising. Yankees and Dodgers seem to be a good match for a trade that sends Hill to NY.
Good point. Never thought to ask Rich about that, although he would have taken the high road and said nothing negative about Doc. That’s just the kind of guy Rich is. GREAT guy.