October 30th, 2018 at 8:30 am 
by Ron Cervenka For the most part, there is a very strong likelihood that the 2019 Dodgers team will bear a striking resemblance to the one that we just witnessed lose their second consecutive World Series. And while this may be disappointing news for Dodger fans who were hoping for a major overhaul of the team, the simple truth is that the Dodgers even making it to the World Series two years in a row is major accomplishment in and of itself and the real reason why there will probably be few major changes occurring this off-season.
But there will be some.
As we all know, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have a propensity for dropping a bomb in our respective laps when it comes to pulling off large – and often shocking – player acquisitions. This, coupled with the fact that there are seven Dodgers who are now free agents, means that there will indeed be some changes coming down. Those seven are:
Noticeably missing from this list is future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw who, following Sunday night’s painful loss in Game-5 of the 2018 World Series, has until midnight on Wednesday night (or midnight on Thursday morning, if you prefer) to formally announce whether or not he will opt out of his 7 year / $215 million contract, which runs through the 2020 season but includes an opt-out clause that came into play when Dodgers shortstop Manny Machado struck out for the final out of the 2018 World Series.
Will he stay or will he go?
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Although there seems to be a split pretty much right down the middle between Dodger fans wanting Kershaw to go and those wanting him to stay, the extremely popular lefty who was once affectionately referred to as ‘the best pitcher on the planet’ will, because of his declining success and effectiveness and increasing health concerns, have a very difficult time landing a multiyear contract that will exceed the $65 million remaining on his existing contract with the Dodgers for the 2019 ($32 million) and 2020 ($33 million) seasons. That being said, there is always the possibility of a dark horse team out there who may be willing to roll the dice on the 30-year-old Dallas, Texas native and the Dodgers 2006 first-round draft pick. Possible, but unlikely.
While no one ever knows exactly what Friedman and Zaidi are thinking (other than their unwavering love for analytics, of course), there is little doubt that one-time (albeit very brief) fan-favorite Manny Machado is as good as gone. Not only is the 26-year-old shortstop expected to land one of the most lucrative (and lengthy) contracts in baseball history, something that the Dodgers are unlikely to offer him with All-Star shortstop Corey Seager expected back on or near Opening Day 2019, the controversial Machado absolutely positively fell out of grace with Dodger fans (and the Dodgers brass) with his repeated display of lack of hustle when running out ground balls, not to mention his embarrassing pimping of home runs that weren’t home runs at all.
Whereas the Hialeah, Florida native and four-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove winner and Platinum Glove-winning shortstop with arguably the strongest arm in the game today had frequent opportunities to change his (perceived) laziness, he elected not to – not even during the just-concluded Fall Classic. In other words, DLTDHYITAOTWO, Manny. (Google it).
With regards to Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal, it is (very) unlikely that the Dodgers will even make the soon-to-be (on November 8) 30-year-old backstop an offer, not necessarily because of his increasingly poor defense (especially during the final two months of the 2018 regular season and into the postseason), but because the Dodgers are blessed, absolutely blessed to have a stable full of young catchers down on the farm and with (current) back-up catcher Austin Barnes still under team control.
Although Grandal’s 24 home runs and signature bat drop will be missed, his less-than-stellar defense will not.
(Photo credit – Harry How)
It’s no secret that the Dodgers called up top catching prospect Will Smith and minor league catcher Rocky Gale on September 1, although neither appeared in a game for the Dodgers down the stretch or in the postseason. Both are expected to compete with Barnes for the starting catching job (if there even is such a thing in the Friedman / Zaidi era Dodgers) this coming spring.
It’s also no secret that the Dodgers top-ranked prospect (behind only outfielder Alex Verdugo, also a September 1 call-up) is 20-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz, who is currently playing in the prestigious Arizona Fall League deemed by many to be the final springboard to the major leagues.
What all of this means is Yasmani who?
As for the rest on the Dodgers free agent list, it is very unlikely that the Dodgers will offer contracts to second baseman Brian Dozier, right-handers John Axford and Daniel Hudson, and especially right-hander Ryan Madson, who (uggh) allowed all seven of the baserunners he inherited during the just-concluded World Series to score … ALL of them. Needless to say, Madson’s train out of Los Angeles (so to speak) can’t leave soon enough.
That leaves only 31-year-old left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu as the last man standing on the Dodger free agent list, and, quite frankly, the Dodgers would be absolutely foolish to let the Incheon, South Korea native get away.
Losing left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu to free agency would be a huge mistake for the Dodgers.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
During his six seasons with the Dodgers (he missed all of the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery), Ryu has a 40-28 record and 3.20 ERA, not top-of-the-rotation-type numbers, but most certainly number three, four, or five numbers. What’s more, with his improved curveball and slider, he seems to be getting better with age than declining. And although he undoubtedly won’t come cheap for the Dodgers to re-sign him (having already invested $36 million to acquire him from the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization on December 9, 2012), he has been a workhorse for the Dodgers during his six-years in LA.
Although all of this is pure speculation and even though F&Z are known for pulling off some pretty incredible deals and/or trades, as it stands right now, the 2019 Dodgers roster will bear a strong resemblance to their 2018 roster.
Then again, it could also change in a heartbeat.
Stay tuned…
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I’ll predict that at least 1/3 of the team looks different opening day. They’ll have a new catcher, at least 1 new infielder and at least one new outfielder plus a new pitcher in the rotation plus 2 new arms in the pen.
It would be nice if most of the starting position players could hit pitchers who throw with either hand with a modicum of success . As well , we haven’t had any stability batting leadoff since we traded an all star to the Marlins . And why do our relievers throw their fast ball at 92 mph , while we face relief pitchers who throw at 98 and up . Just sayin ‘
About being able to hit pitchers lefty/righty/middley… if only Roberts gave them a chance. But no! Despite what his eyes might be seeing Roberts is a one-trick pony when it comes to managing. No f’in imagination.
As for 92 mph, we have guys who can bring it, but Kenley’s never been one of those. Movement is his thing. Problem is, when the ball doesn’t move –and location hasn’t been his thing, either– the guys hit HRs off of him.
“…Kenley’s never been one of those.” First few seasons pitching for Dodgers Jansen would regularly pitch in the mid 90’s and occasionally hit 98 mph. Likely that his cutter has more movement with less velocity.
On the surface all you say about Kenley is true. But there’s more to it.
He had four identifiable periods when your arguments hold water.
First: He started the season poorly prepared because management wanted him to take it easy in ST. The result was that he was doing his ST in the first month of the season. Obviously a failed strategy.
Second: His heart problem. The medication he was using needed to be adjusted. He acknowledged that he gave up home runs and didn’t care. Once that problem was solved he was back to being Kenley.
The next two are basically the same. Kenley, like most great closers, thrives on workload and pressure. In both cases I believe he was inexplicably given too much time off.
Third: He skipped the last series in Denver on doctors orders. Then he wasn’t used until the third game in Cincy, meaning six days off total (there was a day off before the Denver series).
Fourth: He closed out the NLCS, then didn’t pitch until WS game 3, a total of five days off.
You can call it making excuses. I see as common sense having watched Kenley over the years. Assuming that 2018 is what we can expect from Kenley in the future is just not looking at the facts.
Regarding your first point, I agree. I’ve long felt managers create their own problems by assuming they need to platoon. If batters don’t get repetitions against certain type pitchers they will be basically helpless (ref: Kike).
Meanwhile we have good hitters taking too much time off.
did the front office contribute to Dodgers losses as in game 3 pitcher strategy?? Yes the Red Sox are that good and completely well managed!!!!
With 9 listed free agents, 7 that everyone agrees including the writer of this article,.how physically can this team look the same approximately 1/4th is going to go away? Flawed logic from the outset!
I think we’ll see a veteran catcher signed/acquired as Barnes is not the answer clearly (a dream would Sergio Ramos?)as the Smith/Ruiz get a little more experience. I think signing Patrick Corbin could be a FA agent signing along with bolstering the bullpen.
how can 2019 team look the same? Depth from those who played in 2018 = 32 (and I am likely forgetting a couple of players)
SP: Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Maeda, Hill, Stripling, Wood, Santana
RP: Jansen, Alexander, Baez, Floro, Ferguson, Chargois, Fields, Cingrani, Goeddel, Stewart
C: Barnes, Farmer
inf: Muncy, Taylor, Turner, Seager, Freese
OF: Kemp, Pederson, Bellinger, Puig, Toles
Utility: Hernandez, Locastro
Julio.
WOW! When I miss one I MISS a really big one. My bad!
Realmuto has informed the Marlins’ ownership and front office that he’s not going to sign an extension in Miami. Let the bidding begin.
No let Ryu go. He’s an overpaid injured prone player waiting to happen.
I’ll stand with Ron on Hyun-Jin this time. I spoke up for him while he was working his way back. I sure don’t want to see him doing it for another team.
Some fans may not know, the Dodgers knew he had that torn labrum before signing him. He pitched at least two years with it.
SPOT ON! Ryu is a keeper, perhaps on an incentive contract along the lines of Maeda’s with lower base + incentives for IP and starts
Realmuto is someone I think the Dodgers should go after. He’s better defensively behind the plate and could potentially bring a lot of power in the future. But that would mean that they would have to let go one of their young catchers down in the system.
As for pitching the Dodgers have pretty good depth but I would say if they are going to let Ryu go, they will need to sign a starting pitcher or rely on the farm system. I would also say if Kershaw does opts out they should go after young pitching like Michael Fulmer from Detroit or the young trio of pitchers from the New York Mets (Syndergaard or deGrom)
Dodgers should also invest into good quality relief pitching this time around. It seem liked they were going off analysis last season when they got components that were questionable.
1. I think all those free agents are gone, Grandal and Ryu, if they accept the
qualifying offer would be the only exceptions.
2. If Kershaw opts out it will be so we can rework his contract
3. Realmuto is a great catcher but with Smith and Ruiz ready soon why sign him?
I’d try to find a veteran catcher who would sign for 2 yrs or has 2 yrs left
on his contract to fill the gap until Smith?Ruiz are ready, or if they make
the club as a mentor
4. We have enough starting pitching with Buehler, Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Urias
Stripling Wood and Santana
5. Hopefully the front office finally realizes we need a solid bullpen and gets
someone like Andrew Miller.
6. An everyday 2nd baseman is needed by trade or free agency
7. Of Pederson, Bellinger and Muncy, at least one of them is expendable to
trade.
I’d trade Pederson because he only plays one position and doesn’t hit enough.
Grandal won’t get a QO. He’s gone.
Ryu is staying on a new contract.
Kersh doesn’t need to opt out to rework his contract, just extend it. He won’t opt out unless he already has a deal with the Dodgers (that’s probably what you meant by “rework”). Nobody else can talk to him until he’s officially a free agent. Either way, he’s not giving up that $65 mill over the next two years.
“veteran catcher” You just described AJ Ellis. Another bonus to that is he could really help Kersh settle in to his new reality.
Bob, you beat me to it:
Grandal will not be back & they will not trade for Realmuto. Grandal is looking for a long term, expensive contract. He will not get that from the Dodgers, especially with Smith & Ruiz ready in the next year or two. I was hoping they would trade for AJ Ellis before the 2018 deadline, as he’s a good defensive catcher & usually comes up with a few clutch hits in the playoffs. Oh well, bring him in for 1 year to mentor Smith &/or Ruiz, then transition to the coaching staff. The team does not view Farmer as a solution at catcher.
They should resign Ryu to something like a 3-4 year contract, maybe $13-15 mil per year. Anything more and he will be gone. There are too many other options for the rotation.
There are several solid FA bullpen options, I expect they will look to bring in a few, hopefully at least one that can double as a setup man/closer, in case Jansen is unavailable at some point during the season.
Don’t be surprised if Dozier has minor surgery to repair whatever is wrong with his knee, and they sign him to something like a 2 year, $20 mil contract. 2nd base has been a HUGE hole for several years now. They have also been pursuing Dozier for a few years, and despite his struggles once he got here, the FO likes his game, and he was a very good fit in the clubhouse. When healthy, he plays gold-glove caliber defense, to go along with a .250 avg with 30hr pop, and a good OB%. Exactly the type of player this current FO likes.
We have alot of OF options, so look for them to deal with that, through trades, etc.
For the most part I have to agree with everything.
Have you looked at AJ’s batting stats this year? Only one home run, but pretty solid numbers. They even used him at DH in one game.
I’m mixed on Dozier. He didn’t hit well this year, even less so with the Dodgers, but his history is much better. I took a liking to him when he first showed up in the Dodgers’ dugout. The first guy we saw him greet was a bat boy. The second was wearing a double ear flap helmet, so presumably a bat or ball boy. Y’gotta like a guy like that. I’ll admit that sways my opinion but I would like to see him back next year.
Dozier – I don’t see any scenario where he returns to the Dodgers with 2b options Taylor, Hernandez, and Muncy as well as Gavin Lux possibly being ready later in the 2019 season.
You’re right. I just like the guy, especially when he’s compared to Manny.
I’m all in on Eavoldi and some bullpen arms
Rotation: Buehler
Kershaw
Eovaldi
Hill
Urias, Ferguson, Stripling
Spend the money you would give to Eovaldi and add 2 top notch BP arms. Dodgers remain loaded with SP under team control and with Santana, White, and May almost ready.