August 8th, 2018 at 8:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka When the Dodgers acquired 26-year-old four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove shortstop Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for five very good prospects following the 2018 Midsummer Classic, it was fully understood and generally accepted that he would be a three-month rental to try to help the Dodgers return to the World Series while their regular shortstop Corey Seager is on the shelf recovering from his May 4, 2018 Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.
The reason, of course, is because the Hialeah, Florida native and Orioles 2010 first-round draft pick becomes a free agent at the conclusion of this season and is expected to land a contract that could be among the largest in MLB history; something that the Dodgers have already hinted that they are unlikely to offer.
…or are they?
On Tuesday morning, Seager underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left hip. And even though this is disturbing news for Dodger fans, the good news – if you can call it that – is that the recovery time for Seager’s Tommy John surgery will encompass his full recovery time for his hip surgery … or so they say.
But what if it doesn’t? What if the 2016 National League Rookie of the Year, two-time All-Star, and two-time Silver Slugger isn’t ready by Opening Day 2019 or (Lord forbid) suffers a setback in his recovery from one – or both – of his surgeries?
There is no disputing that a 100 percent healthy Corey Seager is every bit as good as Manny Machado at shortstop and perhaps even better at the plate. But what happens if the extremely popular Dodgers shortstop isn’t 100 percent healthy come Opening Day 2019? That’s the $300+ million dollar question.
(Photo credit – Danny Moloshok)
During his Dodger Stadium debut press conference on July 30, LA Times columnist (and noted antagonist) Bill Plaschke asked Machado point-blank that if he enjoys his brief time with the Dodgers, might he consider remaining in Los Angeles if offered a long-term contract extension to do so?
“Every moment that I come in here it’s something new. I’m going to try different things and try new things,” Machado answered. “It’s definitely going to be a learning experience. I’ll get to know the city a lot better, I’ll get to know the organization a lot better. At the end of the day, we’ll see what happens.”
Clear as mud.
Even though Machado repeatedly said that he is enjoying his time with the Dodgers and loves the city of Los Angeles, he wouldn’t bite on Plaschke’s question about remaining with the team beyond this season.
(Photo credit – Morry Gash)
As you would expect, Plaschke asked a similar question of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts a short while later during his pregame media scrum, more specifically, if Roberts was going to try to “recruit” Machado to remain in LA beyond this season.
“You know what? Honestly, I think that up to this point, there’s always players that you like, but I think that I try to really stay focused on the job at hand, the day-to-day,” Roberts answered, obviously trying to skirt the question. “I think that’s something with him and his family – him and his wife, the agent – there’s a time to talk about stuff like that. But I think the experience, all we’re about, is winning. And so I think if he can enjoy the experience, then obviously that’ll kind of bleed into his ultimate decision. So I don’t really look at it as recruiting, it’s kind of ‘this is what we do.’ And if it’s something you want to be a part of, that’s great. But again, that’s something he’s going to have to make that decision down the road.”
Roberts didn’t bite on Plaschke’s question either and instead gave a ‘politically correct’ answer.
(Video capture courtesy of SportsNet LA)
In a perfect world, the Dodgers will have Seager back on Opening Day 2019 and won’t need to spend the $300+ million that Machado is expected to command for his services for the next five or six seasons (or longer) when they will still have Seager under team control through the 2021 season. But as we all know, baseball is anything but a perfect world.
Although Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi may try to look at the Seager situation through rose-colored glasses and with a hope springs eternal philosophy, it’s difficult, perhaps even impossible, for the Dodgers brain trust – and ownership – to now not have a different position about possibly signing Machado long-term. Taking it one step further, should the Dodgers indeed return to the World Series because of Machado, not re-signing him could go down as one of the worst decisions in Dodgers history.
Stay tuned…
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I think that this will be a very interesting topic when this season comes to an end.
The Dodgers gave up a lot to get Machado. A whole lot if they truly viewed him as only a three month rental, not so much if they thought getting him now gives them a leg up on resigning him.
Dodgers and Machado are being coy because, who knows if some organization will get “crazy” with a contract offer for Machado, but I gotta believe Dodgers are “in” for a reasonable amount. And agreed, reasonable is going to be expensive.
What does Seager got to do with resigning Machado? I don’t think much. Remember Friedman said his goal was an All-Star at every position. Plenty of room on the 2019-2025 Dodgers for All-Stars Seager and Machado.
“What does Seager got to do with resigning Machado?”
Pretty much everything.
Both have been very outspoken that they are shortstops. Yes, Machado has agreed to play 3B when Turner went down (again), but what the heck else is he supposed to say/do other than what the Dodgers want him to say/do? (rhetorical).
If a team – any team – offers Machado as much or more than the Dodgers do (in money and years) with the stipulates that he will only play short, he gone.
I still believe that all of this will be incumbent on whether or not the Dodgers re-sign Kershaw and/or Grandal.
SPOT ON! I believe that the Dodgers will aggressively pursue Machado in free agency not knowing when, or if Seager will return to his full health to play SS regularly. IF Dodgers are as conservative with Seager’s rehab from TJ and hip labrum surgery as it has been with pitchers, then look for Seager to be in extended ST when 2019 season begins and then playing 1b or 2b until 2020 season.
“hip labrum surgery”? Nothing I read mentioned a labrum. I didn’t even know there was a hip labrum. But then, I don’t have a “Dr.” ahead of my name either.
So, it seems to me that if this hip labrum is as serious as the shoulder labrum, which I thought was the only labrum, then Corey’s problems are much worse than anybody is letting on.
I reckon I can asked the Doc who’s working on my eye tomorrow, if I’m not too wiped out to remember by time I see him.
By no means am I qualified to discuss medical procedures, but that is what was reported. And, I found the following: “The labrum is a rim of soft tissue or fibrocartilage that surrounds the acetabulum (hip socket). The labrum adds to the stability of the hip by deepening the socket and protects the joint surface. The labrum can tear as the result of an injury…”
Learn something new everyday. Thanks for the info, guess I can go to bed now. Oh wait, Dodgers are playing tonight.
I didn’t see any reports that described a labrum. Mostly it was “impingement” I think.
With all Seager’s health problems, I doubt he stays at short. Can Machado stay at short long-term (with anybody), to be determined. We do know, he’s gold-glove at third at short not so much. To compete for World Championships players got to be versatile and “flexible” for the betterment of the team. That includes both these guys.
Dodgers only have two position players signed past 2018 to a large contract, Turner (2 years) and Kemp (1 year). I don’t think potential Grandal resigning will determine if Machado is resigned. Besides with all the organizational depth at catcher, don’t you think Grandal is gone unless he gives a big home town discount?
Dodgers have lots of valuable MLB trade chips, and are in a very good place salary wise, really looks like to me that Dodgers will be making lots of moves this off-season. I think only position players who can feel absolutely safe they won’t be traded are Seager and Bellinger. Add Manny to that list if he will sign a “reasonable” contract.
I think a talk with Seager about playing third base should take place before the Dodgers think about going after Machado. If Seager is happy with playing third base then I would also try to sign Dozier for second base. I would let Kershaw go if he opts out, and I would let him know if he stays, it’s for the remaining 2 years with no extension.
Bellinger plays first and Turner if no DH is trade bate.
YIKES! My thoughts: Dodgers, Seager, and Seager’s agent have already discussed his rehab going forward and the possibility of playing a position in 2019 that will not put as much stress on his elbow and hip, 1b or possibly LF. Seager has said many times he wants to remain at SS and IMO he plays the position better than Machado who is a Gold Glove third baseman. Machado the primary SS for 2019; 2020 and beyond goes to the best defensive player at the position. Kershaw gets a new contract, not an extension on his current deal, that pays him well ($125MM?) over 5 years but significantly reduces his AAV so that players like Machado, Seager, Bellinger can be signed or extended. Kershaw is no longer the elite power pitcher but I think we are seeing him morph into a control, movement, changing speeds pitcher who will be more like Greg Maddux. Kershaw needs to be a lifetime Dodgers.
Sorry, SoCalBum but Kershaw is not the elite pitcher he once was, and as far as being a lifetime Dodger, only as long as he is winning the big games, and that is not happening. Kershaw is not worth $30M, and paying him that amount just to be a lifetime Dodger for another 5 years, no thank you. You do have a point about becoming a Greg Maddux, but I don’t see that happening, and I would not gamble that he will. Maybe the smart thing to do is see what Kershaw does the next 2 years before any decisions are made.
FYI; 5 years for $125MM = $25MM AAV, not $30MM. Right now his AAV is $35.6MM in 2019 and 2020. Reducing that AAV for next 2 seasons while guaranteeing him more money over the total contract is worth the risk IMO. Dodgers should not make the same mistake it made by letting money stand in the way of keeping Adrian Beltre and Mike Piazza.
Nice talking with you SoCalBum, as for Kershaw, let’s wait and see what the rest of the season brings.
It all depends on what the “luxury” tax is and how far above it will ownership let Friedman/Zaidi go.
If *I* were the GM I would…
1. Let Kershaw go to the Texas Rangers* (which is what everyone presumes). He should be a Dodger For Life, but for not much more $$ than he’s making now. He is more hittable than ever and more injury-prone than ever, which is not a good combination. You have to think rationally regarding Kershaw.
2. Spend the money that would go to Kershaw on Machado. He’s not the hitting savant that Manny 1.0 was, but he’s pretty good all the same.
3. Because I’m signing Machado to play SS, I’m moving Seager to 2nd, if only because I’ve seen him make too many weak throws that Bellinger had to scoop. Moving him to 2nd will save some mileage on that arm, as well.
4. Yasmani Grandal, it’s been a nice run, but we’ve got an entire organization of (apparently) good catchers coming up. We’ve got to adhere to some spending discipline.
*Of course, if ownership is willing, I’d go in for both Kershaw and Machado, I’m presuming they want to stay under the cap.
1. Kershaw should be a lifetime Dodgers and go into the HOF that way — more total dollars at lower AAV is doable. Rationally, Dodgers fans will never forgive team for letting him go elsewhere.
2. Dodgers have more than enough money to pay Kershaw, Machado, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, etc. and stay under the CBT threshold with players like Ryu, Grandal, Forsythe/Dozier come off books for roughly $23MM; Kemp and Hill after 2019 for another $36MM to be replaced by highly regarded minor league talent.
3. If Seager is healthy he wants to play SS — when he is healthy he is a better defensive SS than Machado based on eye test and stats.
1. Got to give Kershaw an opportunity to retire as a Dodger. I’m with SoCalBum, $125M for five years seems about right, of course we could be living in a bubble. Lots of uncertainty regarding Kershaw right now, maybe he bets on himself and just opts in. Management will do the financially prudent thing. If being a lifetime Dodger is important to Kershaw it can happen.
2. Yes, plenty of money for both Kershaw and Machado. Important thing is being under luxury tax this year, it resets penalties. Dodgers are in very good shape money wise with future contract obligations. They won’t be hurt very bad by being in luxury tax territory next year knowing Kemp is coming off at end of year. Build the Dodgers teams of the next 5-7 years around Seager, Machado, Puig and Bellinger. I don’t think we have seen the best of them yet.
3. Do these guys (Seager/Machado) want to win Championships or “play short or bust”? Their ability to play any premium position (2nd, 3rd or short) is what makes them so valuable. Looks like Machado could be our shortstop in the short run, but if they can’t see that the team is probably better off in the long run with them at 2nd and 3rd, then they probably should be traded at some time in the future. I do agree management will take it very easy with Seager next year, long extended spring training at least.
4. Grandal can stay if he signs a good contract from the team standpoint. These guys love a bargain and at worst a good trade piece. But the future is clear, the Dodgers have some young, cheap, talented catching prospects on the way.
Reference item 1: Look at what you wrote. Kershaw knows all that. Why would you think he’s going to opt-out?