We all know that what happens during spring training has no bearing whatsoever on who makes it to the postseason and who does not. But the simple truth is, what else do we have to go on as an indicator of who’s hot and who’s not, or even more so, who belongs on the team’s Opening Day 25-man roster and who does not?
To belabor this point, one Dodgers beat writer was recently overheard saying to another: “You’re putting way too much emphases on spring training games.”
But is he really? Does the fact that the Dodgers, who won an MLB-best 104 games (.642) in 2017, are 11-11-1 with exactly 10 spring training games remaining? In reality, no, it doesn’t matter one iota. But from an anxiety point of view, it is quite uncomfortable when nearly every baseball expert has already crowned the Dodgers as the 2018 NL West champions even before the first pitch of the brand new season has been thrown.
Although ‘meaningless,’ here is what the Dodgers projected Opening Day starting rotation has done thus far through their first 23 spring training games:
- Clayton Kershaw: 0-0 0.00 ERA in 9.2 innings pitched, with 4 walks and 11 strikeouts
- Kenta Maeda: 1-0 2.45 ERA in 7.1 innings pitched, with 2 walks and 8 strikeouts
- Alex Wood: 2-0 4.91 ERA in 7.1 innings pitched, with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts
- Rich Hill: 0-1 8.59 ERA in 7.1 Innings pitched, with 0 walks and 9 strikeouts
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 1-1 14.29 ERA in 5.2 innings pitched, with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts
Now granted, spring training starts are more about building up arm strength necessary for a grueling 162-game regular season and a minimum of 11 postseason games than about wins, losses or ERA. But here again, what else do we have to give us a preview of what we can pretty much expect going forward than what we are actually seeing right now with our own two eyes during spring training?
And then there’s the Dodgers offense.
Through those first 23 games, the best five with the bat with 10 or more games played are:
- Kyle Farmer: 11-for-24 (.458) with 3 home runs
- Edwin Rios: 10-for-23 (.435) with 2 home runs
- DJ Peters: 7-for-18 (.389) with 2 home runs
- Alex Verdugo: 11-for-30 (.367) with 2 home runs
- Travis Taijeron: 6-for-17 (.353) with 0 home runs
Do you see a pattern here? Of these five, and taking absolutely nothing away from any of them, only Farmer and Verdugo are still even in major league camp and only one (Farmer) has a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers Opening Day roster.
Realistically speaking, current former Dodger Matt Kemp is pretty much a lock to make the Dodgers Opening Day roster with his exceptionally good .333 (12-for-36) spring batting average and his team-leading four home runs (tied with Yasmani Grandal) in his 13 spring games played. And while there are still many Dodgers fans who are not yet convinced that the 33-year-old Midwest City, Oklahoma native has ‘changed his ways,’ the cold, hard truth is that he is playing exceptionally well this spring and is, in fact, in the proverbial best shape of his life.
The problem, of course, is that popular Dodgers outfielder Andrew Toles is also hitting .333 (13-for-39) in the 16 games in which he has played this spring, and he and Kemp (and several others) are vying for the same position and roster spot. That being said, Matt Kemp is guaranteed $21.5 million in 2018 whether he plays or not, and Andrew Toles will make the MLB minimum of $545,000, but only if he is on the Dodgers major league roster.
Spring training results aside (even if near-identical in this rare instance), one has to believe that if the Dodgers are paying Kemp the kind of money that they are, he will get the nod over Toles as the Dodgers Opening Day and (probable) every day left fielder … unless he gets traded, of course.
Throughout the spring and as he is pretty much expected to say, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has repeatedly told the media: “I like our team,” and to be perfectly honest, it’s hard not to, even for fans. But it sure would be nice to see a strong finish over the next week and a half to instill a bit more confidence heading into Opening Day on Thursday, March 29, 2018, wouldn’t it?
Zero concern over ST record when we see names like Ramos, Curry, Spitzbarth, Banuelos, and Culver coming into games late and lineups that include Robinson, Ahmed, Gale, Scavuzzo, and Landon. Following ST for more than 60 years and I have seen great ST records and individual performances with a horrible start to the regular season and just the opposite where poor ST records and great starts to the season.
The way Spring Training games are played, the strategy used and main reasons for them, I think we should ignore the results. Opening day and the rest of the season will be played differently.
Practice, it’s only practice.