As we all know, you can’t always believe what you see or hear. That being said, listeners of Sunday morning’s The Front Office on MLB Network Radio with show hosts and former MLB general managers Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette were undoubtedly shocked when the pair both projected that former Dodgers rental and now free agent right-hander Yu Darvish will probably get offers in the 7-year / $140 million range.
Shocked indeed.
“There is no way [New York Yankees general manager Brian] Cashman can’t make a deal for Darvish happen, even for seven years and $140 million,” said Bowden emphatically. “And knowing how Cashman operates, I think Darvish ends up with the Yankees.”
Although the less-excitable Duquette wouldn’t go quite that far out on a limb as to where the 31-year-old Darvish might land, he agreed wholeheartedly that a 7-year / $140 million deal is very realistic.
“When you look at what [Giants right-hander Johnny] Cueto got and the what Zack Greinke got from the Diamondbacks and what [Clayton] Kershaw got from the Dodgers, there is no way that Darvish doesn’t get a seven-year deal and more money than Cueto got … and that was two years ago,” said Duquette.
A 7-year / $140 million contract equates to an average annual value (AAV) of $20 million. And even though the Dodgers would remain under the $197 million luxury tax threshold for 2018 even if they were to take on such a contract (albeit not by much), are Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi really willing to do that when they have several young (and financially controllable) starting pitchers on the cusp of breaking into the big leagues this season? Possibly, but probably not.
And then there’s the fans.
For as good as Darvish was in the past – both in Japan and during his five seasons with the Texas Rangers – and regardless of how well the Habikino, Japan native might do in the future, it’s probably safe to say that there isn’t a Dodger fan on the planet who will ever forget Darvish’s epic fail in game-7 of the 2017 World Series, when he not only allowed five runs (four earned) on three hits (including a two-run home run to Astros outfielder George Springer with two outs in the top of the second inning), but also because it was later discovered that he had tipped his pitches. And even though the Dodgers managed only one run in that fateful seventh and world-championship-deciding game, Darvish will forever be remembered as the guy who blew it – even for as unfair as this may be.
Perhaps the biggest thing that both Jims – Bowden and Duquette – emphatically agreed upon and one that you can absolutely positively take to the bank is that the ice cold, and then cold, and then cool and now warming hot stove will, as Bowden put it, be “boiling hot” by this time next week.
Stay tuned…
With Dodgers arbitration signings, the remaining contracts to be negotiated of those players under team control but not arbitration eligible (Seager, Bellinger, Barnes, Taylor, Toles, etc.), and the potential incentive payments for Maeda and Koehler, I believe the only way Dodgers can add $20MM AAV player and remain under the tax threshold is trading a couple of players like Grandal and either Ryu or Forsythe (doubt team would trade Hill to make room for Darvish). Even if Darvish would take an AAV of $18MM the Dodgers would still have to trade some combination of players to fit that salary under the tax threshold.
John Harper (N.Y’s Daily News) says that the Yankees can make a deal with the Giants, trading Jacoby Ellsbury( if they can make a deal on his salary) and Clint Frazier (for payroll flexibility) to the Giants for Joe Panik, that will help them sign Darvish and stay under the luxury tax treshold.
I don’t know what John Harper means by “if they can make a deal on Ellsbury’s salary”. Ellsbury, 34 yrs old, is owed about $68M minimum on his contract. Seems like the “deal” would have to be sending about $30-40M with Ellsbury.
SF would be better off taking Kemp’s $43M and either Toles or Verdugo for Panik. Panik, 27 yrs old, makes $3.5M in 2018 with two more years of arb after that. He would slot in nicely at 2nd for the Dodgers. But don’t know why SF would do either deal.
I think Dodgers would gladly send Kemp to Giants, even paying $13MM per year of his contract, but don’t see the Dodgers trading either Toles or Verdugo (or Pederson for that matter) to Giants. Dodgers do not need Panik and his previous history of back problems.
They got McCutchen instead.
Better choice than Kemp, but will not matter — another season of missing the playoffs for Giants
Agree.