March 23rd, 2017 at 6:00 am 
by Jacob Rudner A little over a month ago, I wrote a series of articles that predicted who would come out of spring training as the winners of three key position battles heading into the season. Now, with just two weeks left in camp, I will be revisiting those three articles as well as creating two more to predict my own 25-man, opening day, roster. This will more than likely be broken into 5 different pieces consisting of the following: the rotation, the bullpen, infield (including catchers), outfield, and the bench. This article will be the first of five and I will be dedicating it to the rotation.
Earlier in spring training, in my first series of prediction articles, I predicted that the rotation would feature Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, and Alex Wood. And, after both hearing some recent news about who projects to actually be in the starting five, and realizing that the chance of the Dodgers starting four lefties is slim to none, I will be making some changes.
It should come as a surprise to no one that Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has had a great spring, having allowed only five runs on eight hits while walking four and striking out 17. Unfortunately, four of those eight hits were home runs. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Regardless of the changes I will be making, the first three members remain the same on everyone’s lists, including my own. The first man in the order is none other than Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw was untouchable in his first few outings of spring and showed signs of being human in his last start. But, to no one’s surprise, Kershaw is the king of the hill and things will remain that way for the foreseeable future. Kershaw also looks to take the mound on opening day for the seventh straight season, tying the Dodgers record for most consecutive opening days starts.
Next is Rich Hill. Hill has been in the number two spot ever since signing a three year 36 million dollar deal with the Dodgers this past off-season. He has not looked all that great in spring training but he will also be the first to admit that spring training is still not and has never been his thing. Hill did throw five innings on the backfields against Brewers’ minor leaguers, where he struck out 10 very unfortunate batters.
A healthy Rich Hill could be the difference between the Dodgers winning their fifth consecutive NL West title or being an also-ran. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
The third and final lock is Kenta Maeda. Kenta has been the master of two trades this spring. The first of these is his ability to scare translator and clubhouse favorite, Will Ireton. Kenta has made himself a social media star by taking videos of himself scaring the unsuspecting translator and posting them to his Instagram. I strongly recommend checking those videos out. The second and more important trade that Kenta has done this spring is pitch well. Kenta has been nothing short of magnificent in his appearances and has been a strikeout machine; buckling the knees of many hitters he’s faced. I think that Kenta has a great chance to build upon what was a very good first season, one that placed him third in Rookie of the Year votes.
Now, let’s look at the fourth spot in the rotation. This will be my first change to the original rotation and it will be done so by removing Scott Kazmir and replacing him with six foot five righty Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy, like Maeda, has shown the front office what he is capable of doing after a long bout with multiple injuries most prominent of them a tear in his UCL resulting in Tommy John Surgery. McCarthy has more or less locked himself into a rotation spot but I think that this will come with a very important detail. McCarthy will undoubtedly have a very short leash in his starts should they go badly. So, I think in the event that he starts pitching poorly will be pulled from the rotation just as quick as he was placed in it. But, for now, McCarthy is my fourth starter.
Finally, the fifth starter is where things get interesting. The two people I have in mind for the spot are Alex Wood and Hyun-Jin Ryu. If you were to pick the winner based on performance, I think Ryu has the slight upper hand. But, if you want to go with the safe bet, I think the right choice is Alex Wood. So, since I seriously struggled with this while writing this article, I have decided to give you all a look into my thought process when picking who I thought would be the winner.
First, I started with the pros and cons of starting Ryu. Ryu has been an absolute shock to Dodger fans this spring pitching his way to ERA of just one through nine innings pitched. Ryu, has not shown anyone a fastball with much velocity (sitting at just around 88-89) but he has shown fans that he is still very capable of getting outs with his off-speed stuff. In an interview after his most recent start against the brewers, Ryu shared that,”… if I can just keep my velocity around where is was in 2013 then I can still be effective”. Ryu’s fastball sat around 90 mph and he is just a tick below that and is currently proving, quite emphatically actually, that he can get outs. The only downside that I was able to think of was that Ryu has not faced major league hitters in two years. With only one start under his belt for the past two seasons, and one that did not go well, Ryu will have to acclimate quickly to a very talented MLB.
On the other hand, there’s Alex Wood. Alex has been with the Dodgers for two full seasons now and has been fairly impressive in his short stint with the team. Wood has had moments where he has looked unbeatable and ones where he looked quite beatable. But, the biggest value that Alex holds over Ryu is that fact that he has pitched a whole lot more over the past two seasons. Although Wood has seen significant time on the DL for his own fight with elbow problems, Alex brings a much more current arm to the table.
When all is said and done, the decision came down to one thing and one thing only, flexibility. In the case of Ryu, the bullpen is not an option. Ryu will either be a starter here or with another team and that is final. But, with Alex Wood, the bullpen is an option. Much like Ross Stripling, Alex Wood got a taste of both the pen and the rotation last season and did both well. So, with that being said, Ryu will take the fifth spot and Wood will couple with Stripling as a righty lefty long man duo out of the pen.
Ryu has allowed only one run in his nine innings of work thus far this spring.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Just to summarize, the rotation to start the season will be Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, McCarthy, and Ryu with Scott Kazmir either being traded or optioned and Wood to the bullpen. Stay tuned for an article on the bullpen.
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With 12 years of MLB service time, Kazmir has been out of options for quite some time. He is also owed $16 million for each of the next two years, which is going to make his contract very difficult to unload.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him begin the season on the DL.
A poor choice of words from me. I meant to say that he would be designated. I think that Kazmir is the next Carl Crawford in that he is talented but his career has hit a major speed bump. I think that he could pursue a career with a different team or accept his designation and pitch in Triple-A with the Dodgers.
As a veteran I believe Kazmir could decline the outright assignment, keep the money, and become a FA
I think one other factor to be considered IF Dodgers decide Ryu is ready to begin the season on the 25 man roster — which LH’er is optioned, or moved to the DL as team is unlikely to carry 4 LH’ers in the BP. Avilan with no options either makes the team or is traded. Liberatore, Dayton, and Wood all have remaining option(s); Liberatore has not looked good this ST and could start season on DL and extended ST. I still think a viable option is for Ryu to stay behind on the DL to continue rebuilding arm strength in extended ST.
I think the best option would be to pursue a trade. I think that Avilan is a good pitcher but he is just unnecessary to the Dodgers therefor my solution would be to trade him. If that doesn’t happen, which it very well might not, I think that Liberatore may either start on the DL or even in the minors. Regardless, I think Ryu and Wood break camp on the roster.
I was surprised that you ended up with Ryu as your pick for 5th starter, Jacob, I thought you were telling us why you picked Wood. Another nice article.
I gave Ryu credit where credit was due. Ryu has looked incredible this spring and because Wood has the option to pitch from the pen I think Ryu gets the spot. I love Wood going into the season and would not be surprised to see him make quite a few starts. Just not right off the bat.
Good piece of writing Jacob. Its been my contention this year will be a lot like last year in that we will be near the top of the league in number of pitchers in the GS column and near the bottom of the league in the starters total IP column. It worked out ok last year, but, we did have some bounces go our way. With the outlier being Kershaw this is a collection of 5 inning starters, many of whom may not get 20 starts. Could work out again. Hope so.
Interesting that we are discussing Ryu for starting rotation now when 2 months ago several fans said that he was “through” a couple wrote that he was “toast.”
And I was one of them… which doesn’t mean I was holding out hope he’d make a comeback one day. But, given the circumstances over the past two years, even you’d have to agree that Ryu’s prospectus wasn’t very optimistic, right?
Here’s what I wrote last Friday on this blog:
“Considering where Ryu has been health-wise over the past two years, this is really encouraging news to read. I know many of us speculated last season that his career was in jeopardy following his failed mid-season comeback. Ryu didn’t give up on himself and that alone speaks highly of his desire to return to the game.”
Bottom line… I think we’re all very happy to see Hyun-jin Ryu pitching well right now.
I didn’t think Dodgers should build its starting pitching rotation around the expectation that Ryu would be in its starting rotation on opening day, but neither was I ready to say that his career was through, or toast, without seeing what he could do in ST. I have read that players take 2 years to regain full strength in their shoulder following labrum surgery, Ryu will reach his second anniversary in May 2017. And the debridement procedure on his elbow last September is now a fairly common procedure for professional pitchers. Ryu’s commitment and effort to return to pitching for Dodgers was impressive and I came to believe that if any pitcher could make it back it was him.
That is very well said. I was a “hater” at the beginning of spring but was never hoping for the worst. Also, I think it was my intention to write him off as a Dodger starter, NOT an MLB starter. I am glad he is healthy and ready to go.
I was among them and guess what? I still am.
I will be absolutely amazed if the Dodgers get more than 15 starts out on Ryu this season. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and would love nothing more than to eat these words.
There… I said it.
Even 15 starts is a long way from his career being “through” or “toast.” All I wanted was to see how he performed in ST before writing him off.
I will openly admit that I wrote of Ryu earlier in spring training and it’s in writing from my last starting rotation article. I will also openly say that Ryu has proved that he still has the stuff to be a big league pitcher and he has shown me as well as the fans that he should be ready to go. I firmly believe that Ryu has the opportunity to be in the opening day rotation as he is both healthy and to be perfectly honest, on fire. The rest of the season is a different story and one I haven’t thought about yet.
Ryu has and has always had arguably one of the best curveballs in the game. Unfortunately, his fastball, although fast, doesn’t – or at least didn’t – have much movement to it. During his rehab even High-A hitters destroyed it. If he gets this back, he will be very affective.
If Dave Roberts is accurately talking about Ryu then it sounds like his fastball is messing up hitters right now. From how I understand it, hitters are late even on Ryu’s “slowball”.
The FO did cut bait with Carl Crawford, after inheriting him from Neddy. Kazmir has had a roller coaster of a career, and can’t be completely written off yet. I,imagine it would take a series of distasterous MLB starts for him to be designated. At present, McCarthy and Ryu look like starters 4 and 5. If Wood, Stripling and Urias are 6, 7 and 8 they’ll be looking alright. Stewart and Oaks flashed some upside last year as well.
Tough to say what the future is for Kazmir. Only tradable if LA eats a chuck of the contract AND he looks healthy.
Avilan probably get first crack in bullpen with Dayton as lefties.
The staff is deep. There will be roster manipulations. Its not the staff at the start of the season that matters.