February 9th, 2017 at 6:00 am 
by Jacob Rudner This is the second of a three-article series that will serve as a guide for the key position battles that will take place at spring training. Last week’s article talked about the outfield and whom I thought would win the starting spots for opening day. This article will focus in on the starting rotation and will also predict potential winners for each rotation spot. In addition to talking about the winner I will also talk a little bit about what the season will look like for those who do not get a spot.
Like the outfield, there is a massive surplus in starting pitching heading into spring training. With the first three spots already taken by the likes of Kershaw, Hill, and Maeda, the remaining two spots are still very much up for grabs. The list of possible contenders for these spots includes: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, and Brock Stewart.
First, let me explain why phenom Julio Urias was left off both the already established rotation list as well as the contender’s list. According to multiple reports, there is a chance Urias will begin the year in extended spring training in attempt to conserve the young lefty’s innings count for the year. If he doesn’t start in extended camp, I think he may start the year in Triple-A also with the purpose of innings conservation. Once he is ready to return to the majors, I believe he will take over the fourth or fifth rotation spot contingent on the state of the bullpen and rotation at that time. That being said, I do not know the exact timetable for Urias so his real status remains somewhat of a mystery.
There is zero doubt that 20-year-old Julio Urias will be in the Dodgers starting rotation at some point during the 2017 season, just not at the beginning. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Next, let’s talk about Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart. Both proved they are major league ready and proved that they can be valuable contributors this year as well as years to come. I’m going to cross Ross off the rotation list because I have him as the long reliever for this year and I’ll go into more depth on that in the final article of the “Battle Series”. As for Stewart, I do not think he will start the year on the big league, 25-man, roster just based upon the fact that there really is no room. I think that Stewart will be the first one called up should there be an injury or the team needs to tap into its minor league pitching depth.
Now, let’s look at Ryu and McCarthy. Ryu, in my opinion, has a very outside chance of making the rotation if the roster at all. He has dealt with some lengthy injuries and hasn’t shown much promise in the little pitching he’s done in the past two years. Also, he really has no place in the pen and, very simply put, there are better options for starters. McCarthy on the other hand is more of a mystery going into spring, as he really is a good pitcher that the Dodgers should be able to use this season. But, he did show some flashes of wildness as well as the ability to give up a lot of runs in a short amount of time. It is very tempting to give him a spot in the rotation but I can’t do it just based upon the end of last year. That said, I wouldn’t rule him out completely as he is on the outside but knocking on the door for my list. Look for McCarthy to be a factor in the pen and in the rotation this year.
And then there were two: Scott Kazmir and Alex Wood. First, let’s talk about Kazmir. I’m putting him in the fifth starter spot but I think he wins it by just a hair over Brandon McCarthy. I think that Kazmir lacked impressive stuff last year but still had good enough stretches to remain in the rotation this year. Kazmir is also getting older and the Dodgers must be careful with how much they use, opening the door for other younger starters.
Lastly, we have Alex Wood. Wood, who was acquired by way of trade with the Atlanta Braves in 2015, has been quietly impressive in his short tenure with the Dodgers. Last season, before being forced out by an elbow injury, Wood looked impressive with an ERA of 3.73 in just 60.1 innings. Wood will look to continue his success in the fourth spot of the rotation and I think he has a good chance of recapturing some of that success he found last May.
While some may disagree, I see left-hander Alex Wood rounding out the Dodgers Opening Day 2017 starting rotation. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
In summary, the rotation should feature Kershaw in the first spot followed by Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, and Scott Kazmir. It is definitely a left-handed-heavy starting five but I think it will do just fine.
Stay tuned for the final piece of the Battle Series, an article on the Dodgers 2017 bullpen.
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Nice and thorough – great job Jacob. Interesting info about Urias but makes sense if the team can save his arm for the later part of the season.
Thank you Gail! It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers use Urias early on in the season.
Great assessment Jacob, but I do not see the Dodgers going with four lefties in their starting five. I believe that Ross Stripling will once again crack the top five on OD.
Thank you! The lefty heavy rotation was something I was trying to avoid. But I think if you look at skill and how the numbers have come together for each guy this is the rotation that has the best numbers. With that being said, I think the Dodgers will try to avoid starting four southpaws in the rotation so I think it opens the door for Ross and Brandon to replace one of the lefties currently penciled in on my list. Who do you think will be in the rotation this year? I’m curious to know what you have in mind!
Alex Wood has made a grand total of 22 starts in his two seasons with the Dodgers. During that time he has posted a 6-10 record with a 4.08 ERA. He has also proven himself to be injury-prone.
I respect your opinion immensely but I just don’t see how you can put him ahead of any of a number of potential Dodger right-handed starters. I’d rather see Ross or Brock or even Chase De Jong in there (among others) before Alex Wood.
To be perfectly honest, I believe that Wood is a better fit for the bullpen than as a starter.
This is a valid point and one I would agree with if I were looking at his numbers on a two year scale. If you look at last year, Wood showed a serious improvement in his strikeout per nine innings rating and also lowered he WHIP over 60.1 innings. His K/9 last year was up from a 6.8 in 2015 to a 9.4 last year. As for WHIP, in 2015 he put up a 1.355 and in 2016 it was down to a 1.260.
In addition to his higher strikeout rate and lowered WHIP, Wood showed vast improvement in ERA. In the month of May alone, right before he got hurt, he had an ERA of 3.18 in 5 starts over 28.1 innings. I think that if Alex can recapture the success he had that month he will be a quality starter for the team.
Finally, I think it is important to note that he just might not have pitched to his true capacity until this past May. In his career as a whole, he owns a 3.35 ERA and that certainly is not an ugly number by any stretch.
As for Ross, Brock, and Chase. I think that of the three only Ross will start this year in the majors. I think he will start the season in the pen as he really is a great long reliever and can be flexible to the rotation if need be. Brock and Chase are better suited to start the year in the minors and they will come up when necessary. If I were to take a lefty out of my rotation prediction it would have to be Scott Kazmir and I would immediately replace him with either Ross or a healthy Brandon McCarthy who narrowly missed making this list just because of his late season performances last year.
In the end though I think that all of these predictions I made, especially for the rotation, will come down to a grudge match of performances at Spring Training. It will surely be exciting!
Another nice article, Jacob.
Thank you!
IF healthy, Ryu has proven to be a much better SP option than Kazmir, McCarthy, or Wood. 100% healthy Ryu takes the no. 4 spot. That being said, I think Dodgers will be very conservative with Ryu and he remains behind in extended ST with Urias if for no other reason than it gives Dodgers flexibility.
If we are talking about the healthiest version of each of the four guys you just mentioned I think they rank Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy then Ryu. It has been so long since the Dodgers have seen a healthy Ryu and it has been a long time since Ryu has accumulated serious innings. I think for that reason alone Ryu has a very small chance of breaking the rotation. Also, I believe leaving someone at Spring Training goes down as an option used and I’m unsure of how many more Ryu has.
Agree 100% with you on this one, Jacob. Ryu’s best days are (well) behind him. After seeing him rehab with the Quakes last season, I have thrown in the towel on him.
Great guy, great teammate, great sense of humor, but toast.
Remember the words of Adrian Gonzalez, it took two years before he regained full strength in his shoulder following surgery — Ryu’s surgery was late May 2015. I am not ready to write off Ryu until we have seen him complete Spring Training — but neither should the Dodgers count on him in the starting rotation. Holding on to my towel until the final buzzer.
Well, in this case I think there are just too many towels in the locker room. Unfortunately, I threw in the one that had Ryu’s name on it. It is sad as it really isn’t his fault and there was nothing he could have done differently to prevent something like this but, he has no place on this team anymore as there is just a huge surplus in pitching and unfortunately he doesn’t quiet stay above the curve anymore. There is younger and quite frankly better talent already in house.
What’s really sad is that the Dodgers knew of his health issues when they signed him.
Yes, I am writing about the healthiest version of each player. As I wrote, IF healthy Ryu has proven to be better than the other 3. Whether he can demonstrate in ST that he belongs in the rotation remains a question, but it is based on his health not his talent.
I think that it is all about talent at this point because all four of the players mentioned are healthy. So, it will come down to who is going to get outs and after almost two seasons of not playing, Ryu is going to have a very hard time doing that whereas all three of the others have recently (or at least more recently then Ryu) pitched against major league talent.
My point is that a healthy Ryu has had 2 very good years pitching for Dodgers; 3.28 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 3.71 K/BB ratio whereas Kazmir stats are 4.01 ERA and FIP, WHIP 1.348, and 2.36 K/BB ratio and at 33 is 3.5 years older than Ryu with a long history of arm problems. McCarthy ERA 4.17, FIP 4.04, 1.29 WHIP, 2.80 K/BB ratio, 4 years older than Ryu with a longer injury history than Kazmir. Alex Wood’s stats are much more comparable to Ryu’s and over 3 years younger; however, his Dodgers stats as a starting pitcher have not been good and most of his best outings have been as a reliever, plus injuries which many baseball scouts predicted due to his unorthodox delivery point toward a BP career and IMO a trade candidate at some point. There is no doubt that Ryu will have to prove himself in ST and perhaps start the season in extended ST, but IF he is truly 100% healthy then he is a terrific option as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter.
Well done Jacob.
I too expect the Dodgers to try to get away from four left-hand starters if they can. I wonder if Scott Kazmir had his comeback year in 2015 and is one and out.
Will be interesting to see if Brock Stewart, Madison Younginer, Steve Geltz and Wilmer Font make a move during ST. They are all right-handers, the last three signed by the Dodgers as minor league free agents.
Thank you! I think we will see more of the same from Kazmir. Not great but not bad. As for Stewart, Younginer, Geltz, and Front I think they will serve as minor league depth for this year and will join Chase de Jong and maybe even Urias in the Triple-A rotation. Of the bunch, I think Stewart will be the go-to whenever the team needs a pitcher from the minors to fill a big league role.