February 7th, 2017 at 11:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Contrary to the never-ending anti-Dodgers East Coast bias heard almost daily on MLB Network Radio and ESPN, on Tuesday morning, Baseball Prospectus predicted that not only would the Dodgers win their franchise-record fifth consecutive National League West title in 2017, they would do so with an MLB-best 97 wins and will capture the 2017 NL pennant.
As baseball’s most recognized and respected analytics website, Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) system projects the Dodgers as 6: 1 favorites to win the National League pennant.
If Baseball Prospectus has their way, this scene will be repeated in 2017.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
The PECOTA system projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. The three elements used in the PECOTA system are:
- Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
- Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
- A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.
(Image courtesy of Baseball Prospectus)
Just how accurate has Baseball Prospectus been with their PECOTA rankings in the recent past? According to our good friend Eric Stephen over at True Blue LA, pretty accurate:
Obviously, predicting or projecting things like this with complete accuracy are, at best, a crapshoot. But seeing as how the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA rankings picked the Dodgers to have the best record in baseball for the past five seasons (they didn’t, but they did win their division in four of those five), Dodger fans have got to feel pretty good about today’s PECOTA projections.
…MLB Network Radio and ESPN notwithstanding.
Posted in 
I’ve only ever made 1 sports bet – when all the TBLAers met at ST13. But maybe this is the year to donate my $20 🙂 🙂 Usually when you see those odds, they are not the same as in the Sports Books. My guess it’ll be 3:1 for the Division and 4 or 5:1 for the WS. I’ll check next time I’m in a casino.
Let me know and I’ll PayPal you some $$ to put down for me.
97 wins seems reasonable and reachable. The Dodgers won 91 games in 2016 without a legit #2, Kershaw on the DL for two months, no reliable RH bat against LH pitching, and a DL list that would cripple most teams. The bullpen was very good in 2016, but it wore down in the playoffs. I think their bullpen will be improved in 2017. I especially like the prospect of Sergio Romo being called in to face Goldschmidt/Posey/Pence. He does not have to do much more than come in to face the top RH bats late in the game. The Dodgers will have multiple options to be long-relievers to allow Romo to be a tough situational RH.
Forsythe gives them a consistent RH bat to battle around. He will also give Seager a consistent DP partner to hopefully increase the DP’s. Turner and Grandal will be starting the year not coming off surgeries, thus allowing them to have a good start. Ethier’s leg should be fully healed and hopefully Mr. Clutch will return. While the infield should be intact most of the year, the OF is set up for good platoon possibilities. I am hopeful that Joc continues to improve, becomes more consistent with bat to ball, and gets a full year of PA against both LHP and RHP. And Puig becomes the wild card.
Sure, everything has to go as forecast, with limited injuries and efficient use of the entire 40 man roster. But why not? In 2016, the Cubs had 5 SP all year, and suffered only one significant injury. Why not the Dodgers in 2017? They certainly have the potential. ST cannot come soon enough.