January 12th, 2017 at 6:00 am 
by Jacob Rudner (Editor’s note: The following is a guest piece submitted by Jacob Rudner, a 16-year-old Southern California native and lifelong Dodger fan who is pursuing a career in journalism and broadcasting. Jacob currently runs a weekly sports channel on YouTube called dTSPN and administers @ladodgers_edits on Twitter and ladodgers_edits on Instagram)
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Monday, January 9 delivered news that most Dodger fans did not want to hear – Brian Dozier will more than likely spend this season in a Twins uniform. While it is saddening and most definitely an anticlimactic way to end almost two months of trade talks, most people neglect to realize that this may be for the better. Here’s why:
- First, the Twins clearly did not see the value in whatever prospect return the Dodgers were planning on giving up. Jose De Leon plus others is surely a hefty load for any baseball player. But the Twins made it quite clear that De Leon would not only be insufficient but, there would need to be a significant amount of other talent added to the pot to make the deal go through. So, if we were to come to terms with them on a deal, it would have more than likely ended up blowing the farm as well as push some of our top prospects off track.
- Second, the prospect who would be displaced most would be Willie Calhoun. Calhoun, who is not very far off from the majors, is a power hitting second baseman who finished this past season in Double-A. Based on his production and level of rapid improvement (not to mention his extremely good attitude) made it apparent that he would be starting this year in at least Triple-A. Calhoun has already received an invite to big league camp and it should not be long before we are hearing his name at the Ravine. To that point, Dozier still has two years remaining on his contract. This would be an issue as it would hold Calhoun to a bench role in the majors or could even keep him in the minors until Dozier is gone.
- Third, why blow the farm when there are cheaper options out there. I know, I just said that trading for a second baseman could slow down the Calhoun process but just entertain this thought for a second. There are plenty of options out there who are definitely not in the everyday playing time category. A personal favorite is Yangervis Solarte of the Padres who hit a respectable .281 last season with 15 homers and 71 RBI’s. The Padres would doubtfully ask for a huge return for him and Solarte plays every infield positions making him a flexible option for when Calhoun is ready. Solarte is also under team control until 2020 and is arbitration eligible at the end of this season. So, it could be very well worth it to trade for Solarte who would definitely not impede on the call up process of Calhoun and, he could be helpful as a utility man when Willie is in the majors.
Calhoun was among the first Dodger prospects to receive an invitation to major league spring training camp, which begins in a little over a month. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
So, after all of these agonizing trade rumors and possible trades that we’ve heard about for the past two months, it appears that Brian Dozier will after all not be a Dodger. But, it may just be for the better.
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interesting but Solarte wouldnt come cheap at all. All around solid player, 2.8 WAR in 2016 and 3 years of control
Solarte 3 year overall WAR – 5.8; Dozier 14.1
Nice Article, especially from such a high school age journalist! Being not yet 30 myself, I like the Dodgers present course of #dynastybuilding vs a short ranged all in “win-now” mentality.
Dozier would have filled a hole at 2nd base, and the batters’s box swinging right-handed. But there are other options, developing in the system and as prospective trade targets. I think Solarte would be a great fit as well, but I don’t imagine the Padres want to deal with the Dodgers all that much…
The Twins want a premium for Dozier after a career year. If he regresses back to career norms, he would still be a solid all around player, but not worth De Leon, plus another top 10 prospect or 2. De Leon could reach his ceiling, as a great number 3, if not a number 2 starter. Those guys aren’t cheap as free agents! But he may end up as a 4 or 5 type guy. This demonstrates the mismatch in player evaluations. Twins wanted the value of premium, 42 home run Dozier, in quantity and quality. Dodgers offered likely solid #4 starter for above average, but not MVP caliber Dozier. This is all about comparing the value of future projections. De Leon could reach his ceiling, and still slot in the 4 or 5 spot in rotation with Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, and Urias ahead of him. HOF’er and 4 guys with #2/#3 ability would make a fine rotation for the next couple years!
Well done, young man. And welcome to the ThinkBlueLA family.
Thank you! Looking forward to writing more!
That’s very sad news but I won’t give up on Dozier until the Dodgers find someone else. You never know, some other ideas may come up in this deal.
Joe, you really ought to at least take a couple of minutes and take a cursory look at Willie Calhoun before making a comment such as this – not to mention what a trade for Dozier would cost the Dodgers in the future.
Nice work, Jacob! I have a feeling this will work out for the best as well. Best of luck to you in your career aspirations!
Nice Article. Well thought out. Calhoun will need another year at least honing his defensive skills at 2B. I believe that his ultimate destiny is in the American League though where he can also DH. I like Solarte. I was very impressed with his season in SD last year especially considering his wife was dying.
I think Kinsler best fits this team. If a deal could be worked out. I would guarantee his option year and then add one more season that includes a buyout. I also think Jurickson Profar makes sense. The young man is blocked by Odor and Andrus in Texas. Profar just needs some consistent AB’s to put the shine back on his star.
I like Kinsler and Profar. Problem is still uprooting Calhoun and where he stands in our system. I also think it would be a big mistake to trade him away as defense is fixable but offense is hard to come by. My only issue is, like you said, Calhoun is definitely not ready yet and we do need someone on the team until that day comes.
Nice job Jacob, although I don’t agree that a trade for Dozier would have likely required blowing up the farm which is very deep in pitching, OF’ers, and LH hitters. I am curious, what do you believe would have been a fair package of prospects to trade for Dozier? By the way, Dozier’s runs produced (runs scored + rbi – home runs) over last 3 seasons puts him in the top 5 second baseman of MLB and better than any Dodgers second basemen since Jackie Robinson.
So, having given it some thought here is what my ideal trade would be:
Dodgers would trade:
Jose De Leon- he would be essential to make it happen as he would be the center piece. Our Brian Dozier for arguments sake
Omar Estevez- He is still young and still far away from the majors. He hit in the .250 range in low A this past year and he is fairly high up on the prospect list so he would sweeten the deal for sure
Trevor Oaks- He’s actually one of my favorite prospects as he is just down right good take a look at his stats and you’ll see just how good he really is. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=oaks–000tre
Twins Trade:
Brian Dozier
In the end though I truly do not believe a deals best for the team because of the reasons I wrote about. It would take away guys who are talented and would also block off one guy who really deserves a good shot and a clear path at the bigs. Thanks for reading!
That is well thought out trade and if Twins turned that package down for a player who only has 2 years left before free agency then Dodgers should walk away. Consider this about Estevez. He played in Lo A at age 18 (turns 19 next month) which on average was 3.5 years younger than other players in the league (league average age 21.5), playing in a foreign country away from his family, and in second half of the season slashes .293/.340/.458/.797 with 8 home runs, 34 runs scored, and 41 rbi. And, Estevez is one of the few RH hitting top prospects in the Dodgers organization. I don’t see Dozier holding up Calhoun’s progress. From what I have read Calhoun’s defense is a work in progress and there is no doubt in my mind that at least one-half season in AAA will benefit him and Dodgers. Last season in AA Calhoun it .219/.299/276/.575 against LH pitching so it doesn’t appear that his bat will help improve the Dodgers offensive production against LH pitching in 2017. IF Calhoun demonstrates that he can be at least a platoon player at 2b then Dodgers could move Dozier to LF — he is a terrific athlete. Enjoyed chatting with you, hopefully we will have the chance agains one day. By the way, I have a grandson who is your age (will soon turn 17) just starting his 3rd year of varsity baseball — a pitcher.
I would like to think Calhoun’s defense is fixable up to say a Jeff Kent level. Catches what he can get too and good on the pivot. I think that is a pretty low bar to pass defensively, but to tell you the truth I’ve never read such brutal defensive scouting reports for such a highly rated Second Baseman and am doubtful that he can even reach a Kent level. Considering the Dodgers need a RH bat, I would move Calhoun to an AL team. Let’s say his defense improves to a Daniel Murphy level then he better be a batting champ or something extremely special at the plate in order to justify being that bad of a defender.
Comparing Calhoun to Dozier (or even Jeff Kent, who is Hall of Fame worthy) defensively is a bit of an overkill. In his four seasons in the minors, Dozier’s FPCT was .988, whereas Calhoun’s in two MiLB seasons is .944 – not great but not all that bad either. And, of course, Dozier was an All-Star in his fourth season in the bigs.
That being said, Calhoun was selected for both the Futures Game and the Arizona Fall League in 2016 (in only his second professional season), so his defense may not be as “brutal” as you are suggesting. I have to wonder how many of the scouts submitting those “brutal defensive scouting reports” actually witnessed Calhoun play, as opposed to evaluating him based on his sabermetrics or analytical numbers.
I have witnessed Calhoun play – quite a few times, in fact. And while I agree that he indeed needs work, he is (in my opinion) the best second base prospect in the Dodgers system. Apparent Baseball America agrees, as they just named him the Dodgers fifth best overall prospect.
Ron, I hope you’re correct, but usually you read something positive about his defense to give you hope. I would move him in the Twins deal, but it seems like the Twins already have a couple hitters with no position type guy. My point on Kent was not that he has to be as good a Kent defensively when he comes into the league, but all in all Kent is a pretty low bar to hit from the defensive side as his career progresses. Like Kent he needs to be able to turn two well though. Utley was a little slow on the pivot last year.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Excellent work, Jacob! I’ve been holding my nose ever since the Dozier talks began. The Twins are being greedy and, over-valuating such a borderline talent approaching his 30’s, desperately want more of the Dodgers farm system than this type of player deserves. De Leon is an asset the Dodgers can’t afford to part with, especially in this type of trade deal. These types of trades are NOT the direction the Dodgers should be taking for second base because Willie Calhoun is the real deal.
Great piece… keep up the good work!
Borderline talent??? Comparing Dozier to other MLB second basemen over last 3 seasons using WAR: Altuve – 18.2; Kinsler – 17.6; Cano – 17.1; Dozier – 14.1; Forsythe – 9.4; Harrison – 8.8; Murphy – 7.6; Utley – 6.0. Throw out his 2016 stats and compare his runs produced (runs scored + rbi – home runs) to other top second baseman over the 2014 and 2015 seasons: Kinzler 331, Dozier 310, Cano 285, Altuve 274, Forsythe 172 for example. Dodgers have not had a run producing second baseman with a comparable 3 year period since Jackie Robinson, more than 60 years ago. When did Jeff Kent’s power years begin — age 29 and lasted through his age 37 season. By the way, Dozier accounted for these runs on a team where he was given very little protection in the lineup accumulating most of his plate appearances batting leadoff or second. In addition, reports that he is a terrific guy in the clubhouse and in the community. I like De Leon and our other prospects, but don’t belittle a fine second base talent like Dozier.
Dozier’s a good, defensive 2nd baseman, no doubt. However, IMO, he strikes out way too often for a power hitter as his low average shows. Did I mention he’s going to be 30 in four months? Too expensive.
forget the batting average, look at his OBP, his runs produced, and his WAR. Yes, I know his age. Did you read my comment about Jeff Kent? How old is Justin Turner whose career year (so far) was his age 31 season and compares closely to Dozier’s age 28 season (2015) in runs produced. Kenley Jansen turns 30 in 8 months and signed to a 5 year contract, guess Dodgers should have passed on both Jansen and Turner as they are too old. Remember that Dozier is only signed for 2 years, through his age 31 season (same age when Turner’s walk year) which is actually my biggest concern with giving up too many high quality prospects as he will likely leave Dodgers for free agency with Calhoun and perhaps Omar Estevez ready to be the regular second baseman. My point is that Dozier is one of the top 5 MLB second basemen when you compare his offense and defense to the others.
If the Dodgers are going to give up multiple prospects and go “expensive” for a second baseman, I’d rather they go after a guy like DJ LeMahieu. This guy is a serious game-changer and, given Colorado’s history, unlikely to remain with the team. He’s 28, signed through 2017 and a FA in 2019.
Trade for and sign LeMahieu to a long-term (five years) contract extension. Calhoun and De Leon would likely be attractive to Colorado, then a couple other pieces and the Dodgers could have a top-tier second baseman for the next six years.
Thanks Jacob. Thought provoking piece.
I agree that the Dodgers should not go overboard for Dozier as he is a free agent after 2018. I think they have cooled off talks now and will not include Brock Stewart with De Leon. However, if they figure they can make it to the WS with help this year that might change in time. It doesn’t seem likely Dozier will be traded to another team as few have the minor league pieces the Dodgers do.
Willie isn’t ready yet I expect but he has risen fast. You never know what a hot ST could do but I don’t think the team will wait that long to make a trade if they plan to prior to the trade deadline. The issue isn’t so much a second baseman as it is a productive right hand bat that can hit left-handers. That is essential so it must be addressed. The only options seem to be second base and the outfield.
Calhoun and Bellinger both are left-handers as are Verdugo, Pederson Toles and Seager so something has to be done or else this team will be almost solely left-handed down the road.
Right now a lot depends on Yasiel Puig this year. A good year by him, Turner and SH Grandal will ease the pain with some platooning with Van Slyke, etc.
Having said all that I expect the Dodgers to go into ST without a big name second baseman other than Chase Utley. There is no need to panic. It’s a pretty good team.
I actually believe that Brian Dozier will be in Dodgers spring training camp when position players report on February 20. (BTW – Nearly all position players show up well before that). I believe this because even though the Dodgers’ offer falls short of what the Twins want in exchange for Dozier, it is by far the best offer they have received.
I mean let’s face it, the Twins are horrible and have been for several years. In fact, they have had a sub .500 record in four of the last five seasons and finished last in their division in all but two of those five. Simply put, they HAVE to do something. And despite the fact that the Dodgers are not offering up what they want, it is the best offer that they are going to get from any other team.
Unfortunately for Dozier, jersey number 2 is not available, so expect to see him in jersey number 6 come February 20 – unless Chris Taylor is willing to give up number 3, that is.
You heard it here first, folks.
I would agree with you that a RH batter is a priority. But, at what cost? I think that there are plenty of utility type players who can hit lefties that still give value to the team. I would also agree that Puig needs a great year. To me he is still a prospect waiting to show us what he can really do. So, it will be very interesting to see what he makes of this season with his (hopefully) matured attitude and what sounds like new work out style. Also, I think in the right deal he is tradable but we’ll see about that one.
My preference would be to wait. The Dodgers could have a real logjam if their 40 is healthy. By July we will all know what the team has in McCarthy, Kazmir, Ryu, Thompson, Toles, Ethier, Wood, SVS, Calhoun, Taylor, Bellinger, De Leon, Stewart, and others.
I think waiting is probably not the answer. I think that a RH batter, preferably one that plays second base, is a must add before the season starts even if its a platoon level player. But, at the same time, I agree with you that seeing what he have in JDL among others is important. My vote would be make a trade for a second baseman but hold on to our top guys.