December 31st, 2016 at 12:00 pm 
by Ron Cervenka When the final out of the Dodgers 2016 regular season was recorded – a fly out to left field by replacement first baseman Rob Segedin, they finished the season with a grand total of 189 home runs, which ranked seventh in the NL. And even though they had four guys with 20 or more home runs on the year (Yasmani Grandal and Justin Turner with 27 each, 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager with 26 and Joc Pederson with 25), they had exactly zero guys with 30 or more home runs … zip, zilch, nada.
Meanwhile, up in Minnesota, 29-year-old Twins second baseman Brian Dozier – the hot topic of trade rumors since the Twins ended their dismal 2016 season with a record of 59-103 and finished dead last in the AL Central division – slugged 42 home runs, which was tied for third-most in all of baseball. It was the Tupelo, Mississippi native’s fifth season in the big leagues, during which he also hit 28 home runs for the Twins in 2015 and 23 in 2014.
Yasmani Grandal and Justin Turner hit a combined 54 home runs for the Dodgers in 2016 while Twins second baseman Brian Dozier hit 42 by himself. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Having finished below .500 in four of the last five seasons and in last place in all but two of those five, it was brutally obvious that the Twins needed to – and still need to – completely overhaul their system. In order to do so and because Dozier is their only real bargaining chip, new Twins general manager Thad Levine has been trying desperately to find a team with an abundance of young prospects in exchange for their All-Star second baseman.
Enter the Dodgers.
It has been widely publicized that the Dodgers have had on-going (and on-going, and on-going) dialog with Levine and Twins owner Jim Pohlad in an attempt to work out a trade for Dozier to fill the vacancy created by the departure of veteran free agent second baseman Chase Utley.
The problem is, at least for the Dodgers, the Twins will accept nothing but the very best prospects within the Dodgers system, including minor leaguers and several who are MLB-ready or have already made their MLB debuts … guys like Julio Urias, Ross Stripling, Jose De Leon, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Willie Calhoun, who would fill in nicely for Dozier even though he has zero MLB experience and only one Triple-A (pinch-hit) at-bat.
The problem is, at least for the Twins, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have repeatedly said that it is (and has been all along) their goal to ‘get younger,’ which is exactly what they have done and the very reason why the Dodgers have what many call the deepest farm system in all of baseball. And while it is a given that not all of their top prospects will make it to the major leagues, at least as Dodgers, there is zero doubt that they absolutely see Julio Urias, Ross Stripling, Jose DeLeon, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Willie Calhoun as potential superstars with the Dodgers; hence their reluctance to trade for Dozier.
But do the Dodgers really need Brian Dozier?
There is no disputing that Dozier’s right-handed bat would be a huge addition to the Dodgers left-handed-heavy line-up, but is he really worth what it would cost the Dodgers in prospects to land him?
(Photo credit – Chris Humphreys)
Granted, it is impossible to ignore Dozier’s 2016 slash-line of .268 / .340 / .546 and excellent .886 OPS (to go along with his 42 home runs and 99 RBIs), but his five-year MLB career slash-line is substantially less at .246 / .320 / .442 for a .762 OPS. In other words, would it be wise for the Dodgers to give up the farm – most of whom are starting pitchers – for a career .246 hitter, of which the Dodgers already have plenty of? Add to this the fact that Dozier has never set foot in Dodger Stadium and you begin to see why Friedman and Zaidi are hesitant to pull the trigger on Dozier, who is still owed $6 million in 2017 and $9 million in 2018.
Getting back to Willie Calhoun for a moment. Although his lack of Triple-A experience is a legitimate concern, he has repeatedly proven himself – both offensively and defensively – at every level within the Dodgers minor league system. In fact, through his first two seasons of pro ball since being selected by the Dodgers in the fourth round of the 2015 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Yavapai College in Prescott, Arizona, Calhoun has a slash-line of .277 / .345 / .487 with an OPS of .832. And while it is insane to equate low and mid-level minor league numbers to potential MLB numbers, he has continually proven himself to be an extremely quick learner.
“I think the lack of Triple-A experience obviously would suggest he’s going to need more time,” said Zaidi earlier this off-season. “But we’ve made an effort to incorporate some younger players into the big-league club in different roles. You never want to rule out a guy accelerating the timetable on you. But Willie, we’re excited about the progress he’s made.
“There’s still some things he needs to work on. So, we’ll see how he looks in big league (spring training) camp,” added the Dodgers GM. “We’re not locking him in anywhere next season. Like all our guys, he’ll be able to earn that opportunity if his performance warrants.”
In addition to his success down on the farm, Calhoun was named MVP of the Arizona Fall League’s Fall Stars Game this past November. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
As for Calhoun, he is very well aware that he still needs to work on some things, especially with his defense.
“Turn my focus, like completely switch it from being offensive maybe go to the defensive side a little bit more … a lot more on defense than I am offense,” said Calhoun during a recent youth baseball event at Dodger Stadium. “That’s something I’m doing this off-season, I’m strictly focusing on defense right now. I’ll pick up a bat maybe mid-January and start hitting to get tuned up for spring training.”
Is Calhoun a better option than Dozier for 2017? Probably not. But it sure would be a real bummer if he eventually becomes even better than Dozier with another team, wouldn’t it?
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any idea how Calhoun is against LHPs?
Not all that hot … yet – .219./.299./.276./.575 w/ 1 HR
And that right there is the crux of the problem. Too many left handed hitters in the lineup. I love Calhoun’s potential, but we need that right handed stick with sock in it to hit against southpaws. Even JT was lacking last year against LHP’s.
if Calhoun was ready they wouldn’t be talking to the Twins. Fact is if they want to win now then make the trade.
They’ve wanted to “win now” for 29 years. Hasn’t worked out very well.
Well, that’s the risk teams take on prior on losing or gaining a prospect. #RealTalk
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18370118/story-ralph-branca-jackie-robinson-resonates
Do the Dodgers need a second baseman for 2017 and perhaps longer — absolutely! Must it be Dozier? No, but he would certainly help the offense and defense. Reportedly the Dodgers have inquired about Kinsler, Dozier, Cesar Hernandez, and Logan Forsythe — and according to reports are offering Jose De Leon for Dozier — that doesn’t seem to fit if the team is convinced that Calhoun will be ready by 2018. Even if Dozier comes closer to his 2014 and 2015 stats he would be a significant improvement in the offense and defense considering he scored 2013 runs, had 148 RBI, and involved in 209 double plays in those 2 seasons
It would take De Leon and probably two or three lower level prospects who are highly ranked. Or I could see Trevor Oaks or Brock Stewart along with Jose and a couple of lower level prospects. Some possibility Calhoun might be part of a package for Dozier. The Dodgers have outfielders and pitchers to trade.
Turner, Seager, Dozier, Bellinger, Grandal would solidify the infield for a few years.
Depending on how much Calhoun is valued by the Dodgers, another option other than Dozier most likely will be secured. I don’t think they will pay the price for Dozier.
I don’t see Dodgers trading both De Leon and Stewart in the same trade. But I could see Dodgers and Twins expanding the trade to include Alex Wood if Twins include Nick Burdi
Burdi was out all season so would be one FAZ would consider. They do that when the price is down. It wasn’t TJ but was forearm issues. A guess would be TJ will follow.
Burdi has a high nineties fastball and an attitude that fits a closer.
I would not be surprised to see a three-team trade take place. The Twins are asking a lot for Dozier.
exactly the reason why I picked Burdi. Dodgers have the time to let him completely recover and if he doesn’t develop into a top of rotation starter he becomes a very good closer prospect with plus fastball and plus slider
sorry for the typo; Dozier scores a lot of runs, but not 2013 in 2 years — 213 is the correct number.
One thing, no matter how I felt about Utley, he was one of baseball’s best second baseman and I think, will be hard to replace. If the Dodgers have no intention of bringing him back, then they should, in my opinion, expect to give up more than one minor league pitcher for Dozier, who seems like he’s coming into his own.
The F.O. is sticking to their guns with their valuations of prospects, and the desire to develop their own talent. Twins want a premium for Dozier, after a career year. But, he could regress towards his career norms, so paying a peak value price doesn’t make much sense. If the Dodger’s “window” for contention was limited to the 2017 and 18 seasons, ponying up for Dozier would make be more reasonable. In dynasty building mode though, they are being patient and accumulating major assets and their developing minor league. I’d prefer a path similar to the late nineties Yankees with a homegrown core instead of the 2010 and 11 Rangers who got to the series, but traded too many minor leaguers to be sustainable. #dynastybuilding all the way!
Ditto. Twenty-eight years of buying hasn’t worked.
Folks forget those Yankees were built around a home grown base of Posada, Pettitte, Jeter, Williams, Rivera et al. Some big name pieces like Clemens were added but lesser lights like Brosius, Knoblauch, Martinez, O’Neill played significant roles with the Yankees.
If you build it they will win. It will take time but not that long and it will be fun while it is happening.