November 25th, 2016 at 10:30 am 
by Ron Cervenka With the 2016-2017 off-season about to enter its second month and with the Winter Meetings little more than a week away (barring an MLB lockout, that is), Dodger fans need to brace themselves for the harsh reality that third baseman Justin Turner may have already played his final game in a Dodger uniform.
Oh sure, anything is possible up to the very moment the extremely popular just-turned-32-year-old (on Wednesday) Long Beach, California native puts pen to paper on what is expected to be a very lofty multi-year contract, but for those who honestly believe that the 2016 Gold Glove runner-up will give the Dodgers a hometown discount I have some bad news for you – there is no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy. Let’s face it, why on earth would he? We’re talking millions of dollars here.
Although Turner finished the 2016 season tied with Yasmani Grandal for a team-high 27 home runs, it was his outstanding defense that will soon make him one of the highest paid third baseman in the game.
(Photo credit – Gary A. Vasquez)
It’s hard to overlook that in spite the fact that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have repeatedly said that they would like to bring Turner back, they haven’t. Yes, you can argue that Turner would be a fool to re-sign with the Dodgers without fully testing the free agent market, but the simple and painful truth is that, to this point, there has been zero indication that they ever actually planned on re-signing him. Why? Because Turner is absolutely positively looking for at least a four-year deal but more realistically a five-year deal, which would take him to age 36 or 37; and how many 37-year-old everyday third baseman do you see out there – Adrian Beltre notwithstanding?
On Wednesday, MLB Network Radio’s Casey Stern repeatedly said (ad nauseam) that he expects Turner to land with the St. Louis Cardinals. And while there is certainly no argument that Turner would be “a great fit” (as Stern calls it) in The Gateway City, the reality is that he would be a great fit in any city not named Denver, Chicago or Arlington.
So what’s the hold up? Why hasn’t Turner signed with anyone yet – including the Dodgers? At the risk of being redundant, why should he? … the Hot Stove isn’t even lukewarm yet. Yes, Turner has said on several occasions that he would love to remain in Southern California – be it just up the 110 Freeway from where he was born or just down the 57 Freeway from Cal State Fullerton from where he was originally selected by the Cincinnati Reds in the seventh round of the 2006 MLB First-year player draft – but the cold hard reality is that he would be foolish not to go after the best contract he can get, especially at 32 years old.
The reality is that F&Z better have a solid Plan-B (or C or D or E) for their team’s every day third baseman job because at this point and with each passing day of the off-season, it’s looking more and more like it isn’t going to be Turner. And if history has taught us anything, it has taught us that the deeper into the winter this goes, the higher the price gets, and it’s hard to argue that Justin Turner isn’t the best free agent third baseman out there this off-season.
The question is, of course, will he still be a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman in four or five years?
Stay tuned…
Posted in 
@JosephBrass Just when I thought the revolving door at third base was shut for awhile.
Rios is future at 3B or Seager (lux at SS) but that’s years away. If no JT or significant trade for 3B… saving $ > winning?
Check Rios fielding stats at 3b. Strictly a first baseman who is more likely to be traded than play for Dodgers.
Pretty obvious when he wasn’t offered an extension before the season they weren’t going to sign him. This front office was hired to cut payroll, not win a championship. Rios was a butcher at 3B last year and Lux is a gleam in GMs eye. I hope if they let him go he plays like Beltre until he’s 40. Unlike many of the over-hyped guys we’ve seen come and go, he’s a gamer.
Everyone is assuming the Dodgers haven’t tried to sign Turner. Chances are he is waiting to see what December 1 brings before signing with anyone just as teams are.
While I respect and understand the opinions of Ron and others here, I have to go with Harold. I doesn’t appear to me that any of us know anything about what’s going on regarding JT, or Kenley for that matter.
As Yogi famously said, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.” Maybe the majority is right, but it’s too early to give up at this time.
Spot on! What do we know? Dodgers FO keeps its plans close-to-the-vest, does not “leak” information (unless it is to their advantage :-)), and The Legacy Agency seems to be a very professional group that has worked well with Dodgers in the past. Dodgers have zero internal options (Segedin, Hernandez, et al) at 3b who come close to the offense and defense of Turner and external options will cost several players and/or prospects IF they are available at all. Turner may leave if some team goes crazy with an offer, but I think it is more likely that he re-signs with Dodgers, perhaps moving to first base in two years (or less) when Agon leaves.
Probably everyone in baseball is waiting for a new CBA to be put in place, hope it is soon or it could be a LONG Winter.
I think this is what makes winning consecutive division titles so difficult, not returning your best players to the post season as often as possible. I hope the Dodgers make every effort to sign Turner, he’s a big reason, we won this year. Although I felt the same way this year when we didn’t sign Greinke at the start. Apparently that turned out alright. So I hope we’re as fortunate this time. This time we also have Kenley on the slab.
Agreed, there is no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy. OK, four or five years, how MANY millions do you think?
Glad you asked … pull up a chair:
While still under contract in 2012, Tampa Bay Rays 3B Evan Longoria signed a six-year/$100 million contract extension. I point out “still under contract” because that contract extension – signed four years ago today – doesn’t even begin until this coming (2017) season to the tune of $13M and continues at: 18) $13.5M, 19) $14.5M, 20) $15M, 21) $18.5M 22) $19.5M with a $13M club option in 2023 or a $5M buyout. That’s an AAV of $16.66 million not counting the option.
Longoria turned 31 years old on October 7, so he is slightly more than one year younger than Justin Turner.
On that exact same day (four years ago today), David Wright signed an eight-year/$138M contract extension with the NY Mets that carries an AAV of $17.25 million. David Wright will be 34 on December 20.
Justin Turner had a better 2017 season than both of these guys, who will probably be comps in Turner’s free agency negotiations.
So you tell me – how MANY millions do YOU think?
PS: My guess is a four or five year deal with an AAV of at least $18 million but probably more like $20 million. I can live with a four-year/$80 million deal but struggle with a five-year/$20 million deal because of that age thing.
Based on your comps, $80M/4 yrs is a steal. That is about what I have been seeing. I would much rather have Turner at 3rd (GG defender at premium position) at that cost than a Cepedes at $125M, that I have been reading.
Absolutely, especially with all of the extremely young outfielders down on the farm.
Hello Ron! Hope your Turkey Day and Black Friday went well for you. I concur in that JT is the only real option we have for 3rd if Dodgers want to remain competitive. A trade for one will cost us a plethora of top prospects because teams would know we would NEED a 3rd baseman as well as a 2nd baseman
I am somewhat torn on this one. I believe the Dodgers need to sign JT as there is nobody else in the organization capable of filling his shoes; offensively or defensively. But 4 years at $80M is too rich for me. Martin Prado just signed 3 years at $40M through his age 36 season. Chase Headley 4 years at $52M with two years remaining at $26M through his age 35 season. Both Longoria and Wright were the face of the team at the time of their extensions and have an AAV of less than $17M for the remaining years. JT is very valuable and a very good 3B, but certainly not the face of the Dodgers. While not a 3B, Daniel Murphy who is arguably the best hitter in MLB signed 3 for years at a $12.5M AAV. If the Dodgers offer 4 years at $17M with a 5th year team option at $14M and a $5M buyout, I think that would be more than fair. That’s more AAV than any of the 3B. While I agree with Ron that JT does not and should not have to give a home team discount, these monopoly money contracts have to become more realistic.
Pay the man, @dodgers ! We need JT!