November 7th, 2016 at 3:25 pm 
by Ron Cervenka What should come as a surprise to absolutely no one, the Dodgers announced on Monday afternoon that they have extended Qualifying Offers to third baseman Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, both of whom became free agents at the end of the season. What should also come as a surprise to no one is that neither is expected to accept the guaranteed one-year / $17.2 million offer and will instead test the free agent market.
Although is is highly unlikely that Turner or Jansen will land multi-year contracts that will carry a $17.2 million Average Annual Value (AAV), both will undoubtedly be seeking (and will get) contracts far longer than one year.
There is zero argument that Turner is the best available free agent third baseman this off-season.
(Video capture courtesy of TBS. Click on image to view video)
While many so-called baseball experts believe that the Dodgers will match (and perhaps exceed) competitive offers to keep Turner in Dodger Blue, the same may not be true for Jansen. The 29-year-old Willemstad, Curacao native (sort of) expressed his displeasure with the Dodgers for not offering him a contract extension earlier in the season, especially when the Dodgers were making a play for hard-throwing left-hander Aroldis Chapman, who ultimately landed the closer role with the (now) World Series champion Chicago Cubs. Ironically, Chapman is also now a free agent and it is believed that the Cubs and the Yankees (from whom the Cubs obtained him) will be make a hard push to re-sign (or re-acquire) him. Some speculate that the Dodgers may also make another run at Chapman if they do indeed fail to re-sign Jansen. The bad news is that the Giants are expected to be among the teams most interested in Jansen.
Jansen currently owns the Dodgers franchise saves record with 189. Will he be adding to that next season? (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Although Monday is the first day that every team can negotiate with free agents, history has repeatedly shown that the best free agents tend to go first and that teams who wait around hoping for the price to drop generally get left behind. And even though the Dodgers have several very good closer prospects down on the farm, losing Jansen – one of the very best in the game today – could have a serious impact on the Dodgers’ future … especially if he were to end up in San Francisco. As such, the Dodgers might want to get these deals done as soon as possible now that the Hot Stove season is officially under way.
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I hope to see Dodgers show both Turner and Jansen the money after their contributions over last couple of years. The impact of not signing Turner will be huge as Dodgers have no one in the organization who is ready to step in and replace his offense and defense; to go out and trade for an equivalent third baseman will be very costly in terms of prospects. Although I want Jansen to return, there are alternatives (Melancon would be my first choice) that statistically are comparable to Jansen’s saves and innings pitched; Dodgers could even obtain a first round compensatory pick by Jansen signing elsewhere and replacing him with Melancon (or Chapman). I don’t see the Giants signing either Turner or Jansen and losing its first round draft pick. At 3b, the Giants seem very pleased with Nunez who is 3 years younger than Turner. Chapman or Melancon would be a huge improvement as the closer and neither pitcher would require loss of draft pick. I do believe the Angels could have interest in Turner and/or Jansen and its first round draft pick is protected. Dbacks would make a huge improvement in its BP by adding Jansen and its first round pick is also protected.
I’m thinking the Angels are the only real competition for Turner, unless the Dodgers just don’t try to keep him. I grew up in Bellflower, where he lives and apparently wants to stay. It’s roughly halfway between the 2 stadiums.
I still think, if the Dodgers make a serious effort, they keep ’em both.
I agree, Angels seem like the most likely landing spot if not the Dodgers.
No surprise here.
I cannot see how the FO will not go all in on JT. They have no 3B prospect waiting in line. The only other 3B FA is Luis Valbuena, and maybe Sean Rodriguez. With all due respect I would rather hang my hat on Rob Segedin and Kike’ Hernandez. The only 3B that appears to be available via trade is Evan Longoria. Not only will he cost $$$, but also top prospects. The Dodgers are going to have to overpay for JT because he has all the leverage. I still believe he is loyal to the Dodgers, and while it will not be extensive, I do believe there will be a home team discount.
Is he going to get Longoria $$$…Guaranteed $94M through 2022 + $13M club option or $5M buyout in 2023? Martin Prado, a very good 3B, just signed for 3 years and $40M. Daniel Murphy signed for 3 years and $37.5M. Chase Headley signed for 4 years and $52M. Todd Frazier is projected to get $13.5M in arbitration. Perhaps one of the all-time worst contracts was Pablo Sandoval 5 years and $95M. JT is one year older than Longoria, 5 months older than Murphy, and 1 year younger than Prado. I think JT gets a 4 year deal at $70M with a $13M option and $5M buyout. I just cannot see any team offer him more and give up a #1 draft pick. While the Angels will not lose a #1, they just have too many committed lost $$$ and too many holes in their roster (especially at pitching). The Giants are not going to give up a #1 for a 3B. They have Nunez and Gillaspie to platoon at 3B, and they need to spend on OF and RP.
They do need to sign him early so that they are not trying to play catch up like they did all last winter after not signing Greinke. They can always structure the contract to try to minimize the luxury tax.
Spot on assessment! IF Turner takes another offer what are the alternatives? Internally they have Segedin, Kike Hernandez, perhaps Howie Kendrick, Charlie Culberson, or Chris Taylor. As you noted, it isn’t from this free agent class unless team wants a 1 year stop gap with a player like Aaron Hill. Even if a player like Longoria is available it will cost the Dodgers several top prospects and I don’t see that happening. Trade alternatives? Matt Duffy or Logan Forsythe from the Rays? Chase Headley from the Yankees? Pablo Sandoval with Red Sox paying at least half of the remaining contract amount ($9MM AAV to Dodgers)? Todd Frazier from the Chisox? Jurickson Profar from the Rangers? Or, one option that I think could work — trade Cody Bellinger to the Astros for Alex Bregman. Both are highly rated prospects but Bellinger hits LH and plays OF and 1b whereas Bregman hits RH and plays 3b/SS/2b. By far the best option is to re-sign Turner, even if it means over-spending.