The 2016 MLB season came to a screeching halt for many, if not all Dodger fans on October 22, when their World Series hopes were dashed by the Chicago Cubs. I expect in some quarters there might still be postmortems and “what ifs” going on – especially in the Dodgers front office – but I also expect most fans have now stopped licking their wounds and are looking ahead to productive and unexpected off-season transactions and to the beginning of spring training next February.

Personally, I am looking forward to qualifying offers, the winter meetings, trades, free agent signings, the Rule 5 Draft and maybe the unexpected. However, for several years I have cast my eye further ahead to the 2018 season.

For me 2018 is more than the Year of the Dog on the Chinese calendar. although that in itself is not all that bad. The Dog is sincere, trustworthy and reliable with a strong sense of duty and a clearly defined moral compass. By that measure we should all be dogs.

However, 2018 for me is the year of financial emancipation for the Dodgers. It is the year when the Dodgers payroll is unshackled going into the 2019 season. Clayton Kershaw’s contract will be the only current hefty contract still on the books from the present roster. Gone will be the contracts for Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Scott Kazmir, Carl Crawford, Alex Guerrero and Brandon McCarthy which total around $97 million.

During last week’s end-of-the-season press conference at Dodger Stadium, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was asked if he expected to see the Dodgers payroll go down in 2017, perhaps in an attempt to solicit Friedman’s intentions to go out and sign an expensive free agent or two this coming winter. The wily Dodger exec wouldn’t bite.

“I don’t know. I think in a lot of ways there’s a lot for this off-season for us to work through and get into,” Friedman answered. “I think that there are a number of young players that are going to play a role on our roster that we got to see some of this year that will carve out roles for them as well next year. As far as how exactly that shakes out, I don’t know yet sitting here today.”

If noting else, Friedman’s answer suggests that his long term goal to “get younger” is still a top priority for the Dodgers brass.

Although Friedman wouldn’t come right out and say that the Dodgers’ payroll might come down in 2017, he suggested as much when he said that he expects to see a lot of younger players returning to the roster next season. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Going into the 2019 season the Dodgers will be paying $8 million to Matt Kemp and Hector Olivera to play elsewhere or not play at all, down from the $20 million paid in 2016, and the team will be totally free of those encumbrances in 2020.

It is certainly possible to argue that money doesn’t matter to the Dodgers as the ownership has boatloads of it and it shouldn’t matter to us as it isn’t our money. It is very true that it isn’t our money so perhaps it is really none of our business how they use it. As they say, it’s only money.

However, I would argue that money does matter. It matters to the players, the players’ union, the fans who are the foundation of baseball and take it out of their wallets and to advertisers. Why wouldn’t it matter to team ownership and management?

For four years running the Dodgers have had an unmanageable payroll of over $200 million topping out at $271,000,000 in 2015. I refer to it as unmanageable as things were out of control with long, bloated contracts to underperforming and aging players and doling out millions for players to play with other teams or not at all.

In the past four years, the team has forked out close to one billion dollars without a ring to show for it. That’s right folks, just $35 million less than one half of the value of the team when it was purchased by the Guggenheim Group in 2012.

I would reiterate that money does matter to the ownership group. What owner of any organization wants to have the largest payroll running wild with what seems to have no checks and balances and no championship to show for it? What owner wants to pay hefty contracts to players on the downhill side of careers or pay millions to players that must be released? What owner doesn’t want the best bang for their buck?

I can’t be convinced that the Dodgers ownership hasn’t given the Front Office a set of mandates which include always being competitive and challenging for a World Series title, developing the best player recruitment and development system, and getting the payroll back to respectability. I don’t doubt that the ownership group is willing to spent “big bucks” but there is no doubt in my mind that they want good value in return and manageable contracts that don’t strangle the Front Office with contracts that can’t be moved.

The payroll in 2019 will continue to be robust and bold but, in my opinion, but not unmanageable. That is, money will matter and will be spent more wisely with contracts that are team friendly as well as not only player friendly. My expectation is that there will be contracts costlier for players in or approaching their prime with more dollars included, but not extended into the player’s waning years. The cost of free agent contracts will be mitigated with the young players making their way to the Dodgers from the farm system as the team continues to grow from within.

This does not look like a big season in the free agent market coming up although there can be little doubt that the Dodgers will try very hard to re-sign Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner. There is also little doubt they will try to retain Clayton Kershaw following his opt-out 2018 season. Perhaps in the interim, other quality free agents will be signed or team building trades engineered. What happens with Jansen and Turner will reflect very clearly that money does matter.