October 13th, 2016 at 6:00 am 
by Evan Bladh After the Dodgers 8-3 shocking loss on Monday afternoon, Dodger manager Dave Roberts found himself in the predicament on who to start in Game-4 of the NLDS. It was a tough spot, but certainly one that he had rehearsed in his mind for a time. Every possible scenario must have been discussed and decided upon. Roberts had a full week to contemplate all the different possibilities that could unfold, though it’s doubtful that he could have predicted a rain postponement that threw the rest time of Rich Hill out of whack.
So the decision had to be made – Julio Urias on two weeks rest or Clayton Kershaw on 72 hours rest?
For Roberts the choice was clear, and he already told his ace that evening to be prepared to pitch the following day. However, he also maintained his poker face with the media after Monday’s game.
“We still have to win two games. The thought of having Julio pitch at home vs. the road is something we’re thinking through, what gives us the best chance to win two games?” Roberts said. “And obviously yeah, you have to win tomorrow to be able to win on Thursday. As an organization we have to figure out what gives us the best chance to win tomorrow.”
It was an obvious attempt to lead the media (and Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker) into thinking that Urias was a serious consideration, hinting that he would be best used before the home crowd. That last phrase was essentially it, the key part of that quote if you read between the lines. It was Roberts telling the world that winning Game-4 was the primary target and that he’d worry about Game-5 later; that using a tired Kershaw over a rested and inexperienced Urias gave his team the best chance for a Game-4 victory.
Not everyone agreed. Reviews of twitter comments, baseball wonks and message board postings from all spheres of the baseball world came filtering through with opinions at about 50/50 Kershaw vs. Urias.
I found one Twitter exchange particularly interesting. It was started by longtime Dodger blogger and current MLB Network analyst Mike Petriello, who voiced his preference for Urias over Kershaw for Game-4:
Former Dodger Dan Haren agreed with Petriello:
This was followed up by a response from Jon Weisman of Dodger Insider, who opined that the usage of the Dodger bullpen was a large factor on the upcoming decision:
The wisdom of Weisman proved to be prophetic, as seen in his follow-up tweet:
And that was the key to the success of Roberts decision. Luck had it that Kershaw got into the 7th inning, and had home plate umpire Tom Hallion not squeezed his strike zone, he would have departed the game with a 5-2 lead through 7 innings. That would have been the ideal situation. We know that didn’t occur and Roberts used up three relievers in the inning, but two of them threw a total of four pitches. Meaning that Kershaw accomplished exactly what Roberts had needed and had hoped for – a deep start that preserved a tired bullpen for an additional day.
Although we won’t know until late Thursday evening if Roberts’ decision to use Kershaw over Urias in Game-4 was the right one, it’s impossible to argue that there might not have even been a Game-5 had he not. (Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
Now the Dodgers enter game 5, which will most likely be a bullpen game, knowing that many of the bullpen horses are well rested and should be ready to go. That is why the Kershaw start on short rest was the best option.
So it’s all arms on deck for Game-5. Hill, Urias, Stripling, Fields, Dayton, Baez, Avilan, Blanton and Jansen. But it’s what Dusty Baker said after the Dodgers evened the series at two games apiece that you’ve got to chuckle about.
“All I know is Kershaw isn’t pitching … thank God.”
Then again, who would be surprised if Kershaw ran to the bullpen and pulled an ’88 Orel Hershiser and started warming up if the game went to extras?
I wouldn’t.
Posted in 
Down 2 games to 1 the only way Kershaw doesn’t start game 4 is if he tells Roberts he physically is unable to pitch. I believe that was the Dodgers thinking before the NLDS started and they never wavered. You don’t risk ending your season with the best pitcher on the planet sitting on the bench and a 20 year old rookie starting game 4. Veteran Hill starts tonight, hopefully with command of his assortment of breaking pitches, for 3+ innings then everyone else not named Kershaw; could even see Maeda pitch a couple of innings if game goes extra innings.
There has to be some concern about Kenta after his last 2 games. I’m wondering, if we win tonight, will Kenta be on the roster for the Cubbies?
Very good point. Perhaps Maeda replaced by McCarthy (if healthy) or Jose De Leon, then Maeda could return for WS.
I am as big of a Kenta Maeda fan as you will find anywhere, but I believe that you have to go into every Maeda start with the understanding that five innings is his high water mark. If, by chance, the Dodgers are way ahead by then and his pitch count is still reasonable then all the better … leave him in for the sixth and in the event of a miracle, the seventh or eighth. But Roberts and Honeycutt have to be prepared to pull the trigger on him at the very first sign of trouble, which is usually very very obvious with Kenta.
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I agree with everything you say, Ron. I even suggested, before we knew Julio was in the rotation, that he be ready to releive Kenta by the 5th or 6th.
The last 2 starts he’s been in trouble from the get-go. The team knows more than I about what’s going on, probably why they don’t call for my advice, but I’m thinking he may be getting worn out.
I want to see him taking his turn through the postseason. I’m just wondering at this point if he’s up to it.
Regarding your last question: I’d be more surprised if he didn’t.
I’ve seen a lot of comparisons with this team and the ’88 Dodgers, and to a lesser extent the ’81 Dodgers. 2 teams who won because they refused to lose.
I’ve had a good feeling about this team all along. Tonight we find out if they take on this years ’88 Oakland A’s.
After the Dodgers lost Game-3, I was absolutely amazed that there would be anyone opposed to having Kershaw start Game-4. I mean, how can you even think about saving him for Game-5 when the Dodgers were 27 outs away from elimination?
I was even more amazed (and amused) when several of the so-called (and self proclaimed) baseball experts (like Jon Heyman, Mike Petriello and several MLB Network Radio hosts) jumped on the ‘pitch Urias’ bandwagon. Again, how can you even think of Game-5 when there won’t be one if you don’t win Game-4?
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Dave Roberts was, as Evan noted, using his gamesmanship during his Game-3 postgame, and he did so via the best possible vehicle – the media. What better way to send a message to Dusty Baker than through the East Coast biased National Media? (Don’t you find it a bit interesting that none of the Dodger beat writers or anyone who covers the Dodgers regularly even hinted about starting Urias over Kershaw in Game-4?).
It just surprises me that guys who are supposedly the best at the national media business (or so they claim) even made an issue out of this. I find it mildly amusing that we haven’t heard a peep from them since the Dodgers won Game-4. But you can absolutely rest assured that they will crawl back out from under the woodwork should the Dodgers lose Game-5. You can rest assured that you will never hear another word about this from them should the Dodgers win Game-5.
It’s amazing that those who seem to have the most to say (or write) about this are guys who were rarely (if ever) actually in the Dodgers clubhouse this season.
SPOT ON!
I’ve got to be honest Ron. I was actually hoping Urias would go, mainly because I was interested in how he’d do on the big stage at HOME, and because of Clayton’s struggles in game 1. I thought an extra day of rest would help him, but I’m realizing that was pretty stupid logic since there might not be a game 5 if Urias was put out on the big stage in game 4. I certainly can’t complain about how things turned out though.
On another topic: UMPIRES
Maybe it’s just my biased eye, but it seems like the Dodgers have been on the wrong side of close calls throughout this series. It has gotten to the point that I’m looking up who the next home plate umpire is. And that’s just idiotic. So here I go…
Jeff Kellogg will be behind the plate tonight. Baseballsavant.com uses a ranking system showing the percentage of missed calls by home plate umpires. Kellogg ranks near the bottom ranked 66th out of 80 umpires. He is incorrect on ball/strike calls 13.77% of the time, with 3.75% of pitches tracked as strikes that are called balls and 10.02% of pitches tracked as balls called strikes. That may seem insignificant, but it’s not. The overwhelming majority of pitches are obvious strikes and balls, and those are factored into these stats. So Kellogg essentially is a umpire that favors hitters because the borderline pitches are prominently called “balls” by him. Not good with a young rookie on the mound. Much better with a veteran like Hill there, as long as he maintains his composure.
Hill has faired well when Kellogg was behind the plate, but that was many years ago (2006). Essentially, Hill hasn’t pitched a game with Kellogg behind the dish except once since 2007.
Here is what deadspin.com’s Erik Malinowski wrote about Kellogg back in 2011: “He solidly favors hitters…his K/9 has been rising each year, still consistently below average, 4% below the norm. This gives him ONE OF THE SMALLEST STRIKE ZONES IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.” (Caps added)
Read into it what you will, but I’m thinking our hitters really need to show up tonight and pound out 6 or 7 runs.
Terrific information; thanks. And I am in complete agreement with your assessment of umpire calls going against Dodgers to the point of thinking that many umpires are so anti-Puig that his strike zone is twice as large as any other ML hitter.
I tried to find the umpire rankings on baseballsavant with no luck. Any specific search parameters?
In this blog article you’ll find links. For some reason the link isn’t working for me either and I can’t access it from where I am at the moment. (You wouldn’t believe where I am right now).
http://epicrelievers.com/2014/07/statistically-ranking-the-best-and-worst-umpires-in-mlb/
Watch out for snakes.
I would feel a lot better if Kershaw was starting tonight (or a pitcher like Greinke) but as everyone has figured out by now we might not have been here, right now, if we didn’t win game 4, with Kershaw.
Anyone who is absolutely sure who’ll win tonight’s game is absolutely a genius.
By no means am I a genius, but I am absolutely sure.
I’m not a big fan of uber-negative Howard Cole, but this is exactly where I’m coming from:
Five Keys To Dodgers NLDS Victory
Well heck then I’ll be the first genius on here then ’cause I just know the Dodgers are going to win tonight!!! Don’t listen to anybody else!
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For those stressed about tonight’s game, remember this epic scene from the movie Apollo 13:
https://youtu.be/g4IBT5e60uI
“Great challenges are daunting to most but when viewed properly are actually great opportunities.”
It wasn’t extra innings, but you still called it. Charlie didn’t say but I looked it up. Kershaw’s first career save.
Hey, a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
So ecstatic! What a gutsy move by Roberts with Kenley in the 7th and Kersh in the 9th.
Let’s go break some Cubbie fans hearts!