October 30th, 2016 at 7:00 am 
by Evan Bladh Each playoff elimination I seem to take harder each year. 2016 was not an exception to the rule. It took a full week to get up the energy to write a piece. Watching the season end on such a dismal note is always tough to bare, especially after investing so much time into watching the boys play, easily in excess of 170 games when you throw in spring training contests. This year the tease of a potential World Series birth was too tantalizing. The playoffs are mental torture, that’s the honest truth.
Now the hot stove heats up. I know the World Series is going on, and one with intrigue too as Cleveland and Chicago are fighting to win their first title after decades of futility. I simply can’t enjoy watching the series. The wound is too fresh again.
Then the Giant fan bandwagon Dodger haters pile it on me with emails, etc. Which proves to me once again what a demented and pathetic fan base they have as they get more joy out of Dodger losses than Giant wins. (And a short 10 days after their club absolutely choked away a 5-2 lead in the 9th inning to get eliminated).
But that’s all a different topic for another day.
I want to talk about the Dodgers and the critical off-season moves that they must decide upon. 1) Kenley Jansen, 2) Justin Turner, 3) Rich Hill, 4) Getting a right-handed bat to hit against left handed pitching.
Kenley Jansen
I hope he doesn’t walk, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. Can you see the Dodgers spending $100 million plus for 5 years of Jansen? That might be what he’s offered elsewhere. He showed us the stamina of an elite reliever in the playoffs being able to pitch 2+ innings if needed. It makes you wonder how far the Dodgers would have gone in 2015 had Mattingly had the foresight to pitch Jansen as Roberts did.
Hensley Muelens, Jansen’s WBC manager and a Curacao native, is the hitting coach with the Giants up north. He and Jansen are close. You know Muelens will attempt to lure Jansen to the hated ones. I hate to even think of that, but it’s important for Dodger fans to understand the forces that are out there. Once the Series is over and anyone can talk to Jansen, you have to wonder if he can be enticed to pitch for that Giant team that lacks a bullpen of substance.
Kenley Jansen being introduced for Team Netherlands during the 2013 World Baseball Classic.
(Photo credit – Evan Bladh)
There are holes in Jansen’s game, namely his inability to hold runners on, but that is such a minor flaw when you look at the overall makeup of the all-time Dodgers leader in saves. Jansen is a homegrown talent that needs to stay. Let’s hope that the front office can get it done. It needs to happen. And if he goes to the Giants? It’ll be time to put the track shoes on Dodger base runners.
Justin Turner
A true team leader. There are those with close ties to the Dodger clubhouse that will point the finger at Turner when asked who the team leader is. You just can’t measure the intangibles that a player like JT brings. He has to be signed and long term as well. I fully understand that he is 32 years old, but he’s not like most 32-year-old major leaguers.
First off, Turner was a late bloomer, essentially a part time player before he came to the Dodgers. That was the knock on him. Mattingly was reluctant to play him every day because he didn’t believe Justin had the stamina to perform at a high level for 150 games or so per season. Well, he was wrong. Turner is a tireless worker and a catalyst to this team. He still hasn’t lost a step or any bat speed and though most players peak in their late twenties, Turner is the exception to that rule as he at his peak now.
No Dodgers third baseman has ever won a Gold Glove Award since the awards began in 1956
(Photo credit – Luis Sinco)
Second, his versatility is an important factor. Justin has played 2nd, 3rd and 1st base. Second not so much lately, but with the shifts in today’s game, it can be argued that Turner plays some second base in every game now. I could see Turner actually as a player that gets some regular time at first base as his playing days wind down. I know we are all hopeful that Bellinger will be playing the first base bag in two-three years, but you never know what can happen in the future.
Meanwhile, if the Dodgers sign Turner for 4 or 5 years, they’ll continue to have a hitter in the three hole for another 2 years at least, ensuring that a power bat with near gold glove defense is at the hot corner. Turner’s fielding ratings in sabermetrics are very favorable with range factors leading even Arenado at the position. The Dodgers cannot afford to lose Justin Turner.
Rich Hill
I know, he’s 37 years old. He had blister problems. He’s never been healthy in his career. All that is true. He also pitched pretty much lights out from the moment he toed the rubber as a Dodger. There was the one exception of a fluke homer hit off him by a backup catcher from Washington, but that was the one bad pitch he threw in the post season. Other than that, can we really complain about what Hill brought to the team?
Hill absolutely dominated the Cubs in Game-3 of the 2016 NLCS, allowing no runs and only two hits with six strikeouts in his six innings of work. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Let’s hope his demands are not ludicrous. He is 37 after all. If Hill can agree to one of those magical contracts that Friedman draws up that is a 2-year deal with an opt out clause after a year, maybe that will be doable. I fear he’ll want to play back east near his Long Island home…Mets or Yankees perhaps. But we’ll see. Hill and Kershaw provided that 1-2 punch that the Dodgers desperately needed when heading into those crucial series in the stretch for the Division Title. Combine him with an up and coming Julio Urias and possibly Jose De Leon and the starting pitching is fine.
There are those that will argue that makes the Dodgers starters too left-handed centric, but who can argue with a 2.12 ERA (1.83 with LA)? And 1.55 the year before that. Hill took a while, but he has figured it out. I know the Dodgers have had this philosophy to avoid pitchers over 35 years of age, but Hill didn’t get good until he turned 35. He has to be an exception to that rule.
That Right-Handed Bat
It is amazing that the Dodgers got as far as they did with that glaring weakness of not being able to hit left handed pitching. Even against the Cubs, as they took a 2-1 series lead, it looked like the club could overcome it as they simply had to win 2 of the next 4 to make it to the series. But we all know what happened. Jon Lester did them in and the sloppy defense destroyed them as well. I could break apart the final three losses, but why? We all know this team couldn’t hit lefties.
The losses of Trayce Thompson and Scott Van Slyke to injury were significant. At the time, they went down most of us didn’t think they were impact players, but as time went on and lefties dominated this team, it was evident that the Dodgers seriously lacked some sock from the right side, and some of that could have come from those two guys.
So, who is out there on the free agent market that would help?
How about Yoenis Cespedes? We are talking about a 31-year-old slugger that rakes against lefties hitting .341 with a .457 OBP against southpaws. I know his defense is erratic, but the man has a gun for an arm and as long as he’s a left fielder, I don’t see him doing much damage in the outfield. Heck, we had Howie Kendrick with those terrible routes he took for most of the season.
Cespedes hit a team-high 31 home runs for the Mets in 2016. No Dodger had more than 27.
(Photo credit – Neil Miller)
For me, Cespedes is the answer. It’ll probably cost a pick, because the Mets will make a qualifying offer, but it would be worth it. I am convinced that had the Dodgers had a player that was an offensive threat like Cespedes in the lineup this year, they might still be playing in the Fall Classic right now.
One last thing to note: Shawn Tolleson was released by Texas. That same Tolleson that dominated us a year ago when the Dodgers were in Texas and we all shook our heads and said, “He’s another one that got away.” Shawn saved 35 games in Arlington in 2015 and started the season as the Rangers closer, but he had a nightmare season. Personal problems as his father is fighting cancer and then a back injury that landed him on the 60-day DL. He might be a good pickup on the cheap, and he and Clayton are close friends. What can it hurt to offer Shawn a one year deal and see if he can rebound back to his 2015 self?
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Nicely laid out article.
Agreed, let’s get Jansen, 5yrs, $80M as Ron suggested. Seems like bullpen importance is growing in baseball. Combine that with Dodger organization starting pitching situation; young studs, but probably on innings restrictions. Let’s beef up the bullpen. Start with Jansen and Melancon and MORE. Yes, give Tolleson a look see. Beefing up the bullpen is also relatively cost effective.
Agreed, let’s get Turner, Gold Glove slugging third baseball (with versatility) and did I say he is a Dodger, who already gave hometown discount. Sign him!!
Agreed, Make Hill an offer, but, sounds like he wants to be back east. Not the end of world if he doesn’t come back. We have MANY options for starters. Expect, McCarthy and Kazmir to be showcased in spring and early season, also looking forward to young studs with lots of spot starts. Maybe not ideal, but, five good innings from starters, then turn it over to a “loaded” bullpen, could be worse.
Disagree on Cespedes (and Braun), got to save money somewhere. Look to what is already in organization. Toles, Pederson, Ethier, Verdugo, Bellinger all left handed batters, but, 70% of opposing starters are righties. I see lots of platooning in the outfield, starting with Puig (he might be full-time), Thompson, Kendrick, VanSlyke, FAZ will also be on the lookout for other, lower cost good defenders who mash left-handed pitching.
We also got a hole at second. Who you looking at there?
I truly believe that Jansen will be offered more that $80 Million over 5 years, especially after this post season performance. It could be a similar situation that the Dodgers faced this past year when a division rival snatched Greinke away from us.
My concern about standing pat and not adding some right handed hitting sock is that the team will not have addressed one of its primary weaknesses going into 2017.
Although the mere thought of Yoenis Cespedes in a Dodgers uniform is intoxicating, this would go against the F&Z’s mission statement and master plan of getting younger and building from within. I get that Cespedes is 31 and still in his prime but he will be seeking a (very) long contract (5+) that will take him past his prime.
The Dodgers have many outstanding outfield prospects in the high minors (High-A and above) and even more in the low minors (Low-A and below). Most notable are Alex Verdugo, Yusniel Diaz and Cody Bellinger (although I’d prefer that Bellinger stay solely at 1B). But the guys who really intrigue me are Mitchell Hansen, D.J Peters and Cody Thomas. Granted, this trio made it only as far as Low-A in 2016 but they will all probably begin 2017 at Rancho and could be at Tulsa before the end of the season. In all honesty, however, they will not be MLB-ready until late 2018 and more likely 2019.
I expect to see Verdugo, Diaz, Bellinger, Jacob Scavuzzo, Edwin Rios, Joey Curletta and June Calhoun in big league camp this spring, with Verdugo and Bells having a (very) slim shot at making the Dodgers OD roster. I also think that Calhoun will be in the running for the Dodgers everyday 2B spot that will undoubtedly open up if (when) the Dodgers do not resign Utley. June’s primary competition (IMO) will be Micah Johnson and possibly Charlie Culberson, although Culbie appears to be more of a utility player. (I also see the Dodgers keeping Rob Segedin in this role as well).
Although the thought of acquiring Ryan Braun is also intriguing, he is currently under a five-year/$105 million contract with the Brewers that runs through 2020 with a mutual option for 2021. As such, the only way he ends up in a Dodger uniform is via a trade. And even though Braun is 32, his contract sticks with him through his age 37 season (not including the option); and none of this takes into consideration the baggage he would bring to a fan base that absolutely loathes him. It also does not take into consideration that his best years were PED supplemented. In other words … Hell No!
That being said, I can see F&Z landing a big-name right-handed bat via trade rather than free agency. This, however, puts Puig right in the center of the trading block and I believe that Yasiel’s best years are still ahead of him.
I know you’ve watched a lot of these kids as they developed Ron, and that makes their ascension to the Dodgers even more exciting, but are any of them ready to contribute at the Major League level as right handed bats in 2017? You know that answer better than I do. Prospects are prospects and then there are proven commodities. Cespedes is one of those proven commodities, and an expensive one at that.
Let’s say the Dodgers enter 2017 as is. They resign Turner and they decide to go with the current roster. Thompson and Van Slyke are the right handed reserve outfielders on the team and they don’t perform. When the trade deadline comes around, it’ll be the same as this year. Teams dangling right handed bats insisting on robbing our farm system of high quality. It’s a tough spot to be in and I’d rather not be there then.
What Cespedes costs the team is money, (plus a pick). But it is the 26th overall pick. Not a low end guy. You’ve got to sacrifice somewhere. I look at it like this. We can pay for Cespedes now. A lot of $ and a pick, or we can pay for an unknown available right handed bat later, and that usually costs several prospects. It’s a pick your poison proposition.
Ron, Joey Curletta is now with the Phillies. He was that infamous “Player To Be Named Later” in the AJ Ellis/Tommy Bergjans/PTBNL for Carlos Ruiz/Cash. Scavuzzo and Diaz would be borderline ST invitees, but I can see where they would get some exposure and ABs. I do like Jacob Scavuzzo, and I do hope I am wrong, but I just do not see him in the long term plans for LAD. Diaz, at nearly three years younger than Scavuzzo, could be the gem. Exposure to ML players and the work it takes to get and stay at the ML level, even for two weeks, could be very helpful to his development. Rios has more than earned his invite, and Bellinger/Verdugo/Calhoun will be auditioning for 2017 summer promotions.
FWIW, according to Baseball Reference, Braun is owed $80 million thru 2020, including the $4M buyout.
I think the more players from this years team that come back for next year, the better. This years team and in the past few years has a good understanding of why they lost in the postseason.
I say keep bringing as much of the old bunch back, from the year before. Our day will come and I don’t think it’s far off, so long as they don’t make too many changes.
It has absolutely nothing with teams wanting their free agent players back, Joe; of course they do. Instead, it has everything to do with free agent players seeking the best (and longest) contract that they can possibly get regardless of who it is from. The belief that there is such a thing as a ‘hometown discount’ is pure nonsense these days. It is ALL about the money.
I am amazed that you still haven’t grasped the very simple concept of free agency – even after reminding you of it every year.
Ron, I have to disagree with you. Some, like Zack, money is all it is. But other factors can come into play.
I know this, Ron, because I lived it.
When I retired from the Air Force I had an opportunity to take a job at Boeing. It never got to the point of discussing salary because I turned it down for one simple reason. It was in Wichita, Kansas, and I wanted to live in the Colorado Rockies. I came here with no job lined up and knowing I wouldn’t find anything that paid close to what I rejected. I would have probably made 3 or 4 times what my peak pay here was just to start.
I’ve been through some tough times but have no regrets about the decision I made. And I wasn’t deciding between $4 or $5 million a year. That would have been much easier.
My point here is that I’m sure I’m not the only person who would make such a decision. I’m also sure that some who would do that, for my reason or for another reason, are major league baseball players.
I’m not sure exactly when you left the Air Force and “lived it” and do not question that that’s how it ‘used to be’, just as that’s how baseball was before free agency and how OBF thinks it still is today. You (and he) are certainly entitled to your respective opinions but this is a generational thing and a sign of the times brought about by free agency.
Having spent considerable time around today’s minor leaguers, goal one is to get drafted, goal two is to make it to and remain in the bigs – regardless of who it is with – and goal three is to make it to free agency to hopefully land a contract that will provide them and their families with financial security for the rest of their lives.
While their initial hope may be to accomplish this with the team that drafted them, this rarely happens anymore. Derek Jeter may have been the last guy we will see do this; with one (and hopefully two) exceptions. The last time I heard the phrase “hometown discount” was Jared Weaver, who could have made an additional $10 million had he chosen to leave the Angels. (I’m hoping that Kershaw will be the next one).
It’s a very different time that we live in now and free agency has changed the game forever – some for the better but most for the worst. It’s a generational thing.
I think a player that will retire at age 35 to 40 will seek the extra millions whereas a person that might retire closer to 66 might seek a location and job they like over a 30% increase in salary.
I will be surprised if Shawn Tolleson is not signed by the Dodgers.
This was my very first thought when I heard that the Rangers had outrighted him. He would be wise to avoid asking for a big / long free agent contract and instead go with an incentive-based contract. If he does not, he may have a difficult time landing a job with a contender.
I suspect that the Giants will be in play on Tolleson who, by the way, was Kershaw’s best friend in high school.
And since I will be staying in Tolleson, AZ this coming week for the AFL, I will be sending good mojo to the Dodgers to get this one done. 😆
I wanted the Dodgers to keep Tolleson and would love to see him back with the Dodgers. If he is healthy and if his personal life has adjusted from the death of his father, he could be the wildcard to replace Jansen as closer.
He would join the Turner club that becomes a player that was let go by a team and became an all star with the Dodgers.
I agree. Makes too much sense.
Jansen, who just turned 29, matured before our eyes this season into the best closer in the NL, came through the Dodgers system — show him the money and make him a career Dodgers AND show all of the prospects that team rewards its players rather than buying free agents. Turner? Simply no better options available unless Dodgers are willing to trade a number of top prospects — show him the money. Hill? JUST SAY NO! Injury history is enough reason to pass — learn from history of Brett Anderson and move on. Cespedes? Team isn’t going to give up first round pick and commit to $125+MM. RH options. Braun rumors continue to circulate, but owed $80MM (including 5th year buyout) may be the most likely scenario if Brewers will take Puig, McCarthy or Kazmir contract, and a prospect like Trevor Oaks or Chase De Jong in return. Ian Kinsler from Tigers if they are serious about reducing payroll. A starting pitcher? Chris Sale would be nice, but will take several of Dodgers top prospects. Chris Archer had a down year, but still pitched around 200 innings — perhaps a package of Archer and Forsythe (2b/LF)?
I like the Archer / Forsythe package but strongly oppose using De Jong as a trade chip. He is your future 200+ innings guy AND a big strikeout guy. He has the potential to be a legit number two.
I kind of like the Kinsler idea and could warm up to that – if it doesn’t cost the Dodgers the farm, that is.
Very good point about De Jong; would rather give up 2 like Oaks and Sborz than De Jong. Kinsler package: Kendrick (Dodgers pick up all deferred compensation), Baez, and Alex Wood? For Archer and Forsythe — Austin Barnes, Puig, Kike Hernandez, Willie Calhoun, and Erick Mejia?
Kinsler is 35 years old next season. You know the Tigers will ask for a crazy package like DeLeon, Dejong and the like. I don’t know, seems like a heavy price to pay for a player that will most likely start to regress in the coming years.
Then walk away. Not saying to make any trade that doesn’t make sense for the Dodgers.
Oops. Overlooked the fact that Kinsler will be 35.
Never mind.
I like Jansen, and hope he signs with LA. However not at 5 years $80M. The Giants are going to get Jansen, Chapman, or Melancon, and they will pay big $$$. The Dodgers know that they cannot sign Melancon and expect Jansen to re-sign, but they also cannot wait until all three closers are signed. I have said before, and continue to believe that the Dodgers were looking for a closer when Kenley popped up. They can sign Tolleson who has done it. Maybe it is Dayton. Maybe it’s Stripling, or McCarthy, or Kazmir. I would guess that the Dodgers will not spend the $$$ on a closer, and will sign Tolleson (and others) and try to find that closer already on the roster. At the most, they will offer Melancon 3 with a club option and healthy buyout.
Yes on Turner. This is their most important FA. How do you replace 27 HR. I keep reading these 4 year $80M contracts for JT. Why? Daniel Murphy signed for 3 years $37.5M. Turner is about 4 months older than Murphy, why would a team pay him $80M or give him 4-5 years. Even Chase Headley who signed with the well overpaying Yankees signed for 4 years at $52M. Offer JT 4 years at $55M (knowing you have to overpay), with a club option and $5M buyout. That’s $50M guaranteed to play home. If someone wants to pay 4 years at $80M, then I guess Segedin has a shot at 3B next year.
I like Rich Hill, but let him go to Boston or NYY. He cannot be counted on to be a legit #2, and LAD does not need a repeat of 2016 with the guessing who will be SP. With McCarthy, Kazmir, Ryu, and Wood they already have too many health ??? for SP. They need a legit #2, and they will have to pay to get it, and then they can fill #3, #4, #5 with Maeda/Urias/DeLeon/Stewart/Stripling/Wood/McCarthy/Kazmir/Ryu to be followed by DeJong, Oaks, and Buehler (who I think will be at ML next year).
I really doubt the Brewers would accept the package I would offer for Braun but the only way I would want Braun is if the Dodgers could rid themselves of salaries and services of McCarthy, Kazmir, and Puig.
I would rather improve the defense that played against lefty pitchers and then play small ball against lefties. That means keeping Puig, Pederson, and Toles in the game against lefties and finding a better righty bat at second.
Too early to tell if Trea Turner is the real deal but assuming he is, might there be a way to get him from the Nationals? If so, he is the player that I would put at second base and be the bat that helps against lefties.
This might be far fetched but at least the following is a scenario: Victor Robles is their center fielder of the future and Harper is a free agent after the 2018 season. Puig/Toles could play CF for them next year and then move over to RF in 2019 if Harper leaves as a free agent.
How much more would the Dodgers have to give up to get Turner? Could one or more from Verdugo, Puig/Toles, De Jong, De Leon, Lux get it done?
Hey Bums, IMO there is next to zero chance that the Dodgers would pay the ransom that the Nats would charge for Trea Turner. Figure what you would expect a team to pay for Corey Seager and that would be comparable to what Trea would cost.
Admittedly, while I am a huge Corey Seager fan, I am also a Trea Turner fan, and consider him scary legit. For 2016, in 324 PA, he was .342/.370/.567/.937; 144 OPS+. In 687 PA, Corey was .308/.365/.512/.877; 137 OPS+. Turner had 33SB and 3CS, while Corey had 3SB and 3CS. Seager plays a more demanding position. Both players are potential super stars. Seager will be ROY while Turner will be #2. The Dodgers would not trade Seager straight up for Turner, and I do not believe the Nats would trade Turner straight up for Seager. If the Nats would take Verdugo, Puig or Toles, and De Jong or De Leon, FAZ would make that deal in a NY minute.
The Dodgers are going to have to look some place else for their 2B. I would hope that they could somehow get a Braun and Jonathan Villar package. I do not know the cost, but it would be worth exploring.