July 17th, 2016 at 11:48 am 
by Ron Cervenka There is no denying that Saturday’s 12-inning, 2-1 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks was a tough one to swallow, especially after the stellar pitching performance by right-hander Brandon McCarthy and equally outstanding scoreless relief work by left-hander Adam Liberatore and right-hander Joe Blanton. But to get down on Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen for blowing only his fourth save in 31 tries when the Dodgers offense stranded 15 runners on base and went 1 for 15 (.066) with runners in scoring position is simply unreasonable.
Yes, Jansen blew a one-run lead on a two-out RBI double to Dbacks slugger Jake Lamb in the bottom of the ninth, and yes struggling right-hander Casey Fien allowed a 12th-inning leadoff triple to (wait for it…) Jake Lamb, who scored the eventual winning run, but it wasn’t like the Dodgers didn’t have a ton of opportunities to bury the snakes earlier in the game, nor did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts bring Fien into this high-leverage game before exhausting most of his bullpen first – save for left-hander J.P. Howell and right-hander Chris Hatcher, who both pitched the night before and who Roberts was hanging onto in the event that the game went even longer.
The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding so far this season, thanks in no small part to left-hander Adam Liberatore. (Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
Heading into action in Sunday’s series finale with the Dbacks the Dodgers still – yes still – have the best bullpen in baseball with their 2.89 ERA and .197 batting average against. They are currently fifth in the MLB with their 18-14 record, fifth in strikeouts with 314 and their 101 walks rank 20th in all of baseball.
As for Jansen who has converted 27 of his 31 save opportunities – fourth best in the MLB and third best in the NL – he still has an 88.0 percent conversion rate and, quite frankly, there isn’t anyone I’d rather see come through the bullpen gate when the game is on the line.
So before gathering the angry mob to lynch Jansen or even Fien – who most likely will be gone by this time next week anyway – remember those 15 Dodgers stranded on base on Saturday, and remember that 1 for 15 with RISP before pounding on the best bullpen in the game.
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Not sure why people still so down on BP.All people did before was complain BP & now all they do is still complain#run support!
Well spoken. Kenley is human, just like every other pitcher who ever stood on a MLB mound (though I’m starting to wonder about Lib). Sometimes he fails, but he’s not even there if he’s not one of the very best. If the situation arises again today I want to see Kenley out there, though it may not happen because of the number of pitches he threw yesterday.
Incidentally, Kenley had only thrown 3 pitches since last Sunday. An inning Friday might have been a good thing for him.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
Kenley Jansen has been a solid closer since 2012, but outside of last year, he has not been automatic. It seemed that Kenley’s blown saves have come with a one run lead, so I reviewed his game logs for 2016. Jansen has had 31 save opportunities, and converted 27. Of the 27, he came in with at least a 3 run lead in 8 games, with a 2 run lead in 11, and with a one run lead in 8. Therefore with 12 save opportunities with a one run lead, Kenley has converted only 67%.
A look at the other key closers:
Jeurys Familia 32 Saves 0 Blown Saves
Zach Britton 29 Saves 0 Blown Saves
AJ Ramos 28 Saves 1 Blown Save
Mark Melancon 27 Saves 1 Blown Save
Francisco Rodriguez 25 Saves 2 Blown Saves
Jeanmar Gomez 25 Saves 2 Blown Saves
David Robertson 23 Saves 2 Blown Saves
Jeremy Jeffress 23 Saves 1 Blown Save
Alex Colome 20 Saves 0 Blown Saves
Aroldis Chapman 17 Saves 1 Blown Save
For all of the talk about a 5 year $75M FA contract, Kenley has not really produced at the elite of the elite level to command that kind of contract. I know there is discussion, if Kenley walks who steps up? Philadelphia lost their two closers last year (Papelbon and Ken Giles), and Jeanmar Gomez takes over (and they have someone behind Gomez). Tampa Bay loses two from last year (Boxberger and McGee), and Alex Colome takes over. Maybe Adam Liberatore or Frankie Montas can become a closer, but it doesn’t seem to be a sound investment of $75M for a closer that is not producing at the elite level. Kenley has been a good Dodger and I would like to see LA re-sign him, but at a more reasonable contract. I cannot see the Dodgers offering more than a David Robertson type contract (4 years at $48M).
Solid job digging into the numbers. I like Kenley a lot, but, is he worth $75M? Probably not based on your numbers.
I have read lots of posters claim FAZ doesn’t put a high priority on relief pitching. Meaning FAZ believes the bullpen isn’t the place to be spending big bucks, that good relief pitching is “relatively” easy to replace. There might be something to FAZ’s thinking, if the posters are correct, seeing that Liberatore and Blanton are huge reasons for the # 1 bullpen.
No doubt we all know the Dodgers biggest weakness, their Achilles heel, so to speak, is his hitting with RISP. They’re better with no one on base, it seems like. The bullpen is doing a fine job, but sometimes they need help.
Ron: “So before gathering the angry mob to lynch Jansen or even Fien – who most likely will be gone by this time next week anyway”.
Yes, with Kershaw, Pederson, Thompson, Hernandez, Wood, Ethier and Anderson all, MAYBE, getting close to coming off the DL, many potential changes in the near future. It’s going to be an interesting trade deadline. Dodgers could be simultaneously selling and buying.
I hope they don’t trade any top prospects for any of the rumored “big” names. Lucroy would be nice, but, at what price. I attended all four games between the Oklahoma City Dodgers and Reno Aces this weekend. Austin Barnes looks like a player to me, don’t know why Dodgers haven’t given him a fair shot. I would really like to see him instead of Ellis, especially, after September 1, if not before.
Although he wouldn’t come right out and say it, Roberts made it quite clear that F&Z do not see Barnes as a major league catcher. The sense that I got was that Roberts may not fully agree with this but he was tasked with passing on this sentiment when specifically asked about it by the media.
Personally, I do not see Barnes as ever being anything more than a back-up catcher – at least at the major league level. That being said, I agree with you that he was never really given a fair chance to do even that with the Dodgers (thus far).
I appreciate what A.J. has done and what he continues to bring to the team. I also appreciate the fact that there are those who frequent this site that still believe he is the Dodgers best option as their everyday catcher. But I truly believe that those who feel this way are viewing A.J. with their hearts – and with very good cause – instead of their heads.
While it is understandable that lack of playing time equates to less-than-quality at-bats, A.J.’s Golden Sombrero on Sunday was absolutely devastating to the team.
I absolutely believe that Fien and/or Hatcher will be the first to go, perhaps as early as Thursday or Friday (they would have to be DFA’d because they are both out of options) when Kershaw and soon thereafter Alex Wood return from the DL. This would put Norris and Wood in to bullpen – at least until Ryu returns to the DL (or Maeda lands there).
I agree about Barnes not being an everyday catcher at MLB level. However, I do think he would fill in nicely as the right-handed hitting catcher platooning with Grandal when lefties pitch. Ellis looks done to me. I know to some that is just another evil platoon.
Can’t argue regarding Fien/Hatcher, especially, Fien. Maybe Wood replaces Howell in BP. Hernandez looks like a potential trade piece. Taylor/Kendrick/Thompson have replaced him.
If FAZ does not believe that Barnes is an everyday ML catcher then he will not be with LA. And I agree that Chris Taylor has taken over the super utility role and that Kike’ is expendable. But the question is, is there any player available that will improve LA’s chances to make the WS this year? I agree with OldBrooklynFan that the problem with the Dodgers is hitting WRISP. Jay Bruce, Ryan Braun, and Matt Kemp all having better BA with RISP than any Dodger. Contrary to what Puig did this weekend, his BA with RISP is .313; 2nd amongst the Dodgers, only behind Justin Turner’s .314. Seager at .303 is the only other Dodger regular with a BA with RISP above .300 (.303).
Lately there has been discussion about moving Puig and trading for Lucroy. The problem is that Lucroy’s BA with RISP is .250, so there is certainly no upgrade where the Dodgers need it the most. Of all the RH hitters discussed, none are a significant upgrade over the Dodgers current choices, without absorbing horrible contracts and/or losing valuable prospects. Could Philly’s Cameron Rupp be available? They have Jorge Alfaro not far away, and Ruiz can finish the year for them. That would free up Grandal in a package for a trade for a pitcher. Therefore it would seem that SP is the area of need that could be obtained. Hopefully with McCarthy continuing to pitch well, and maybe another mid rotation SP, LA would have one great and two decent arms going into the playoffs. That is not to dismiss Maeda as a viable playoff pitcher.
The team showcasing the most pitching, Tampa Bay, has a critical need for catcher. Their catcher, Curt Casali, is hitting south of AJ, and Luke Maile is his backup, after releasing Hank Conger. Their top catching prospects are at least 2-3 years away. Their #1 catching prospect has been on the DL all year, and is a very weak hitting catcher. Fox baseball analyst believes that Tampa Bay will trade Matt Moore to LA for two B level prospects. That seems a stretch to me. Would Tampa Bay take Jharel Cotton and Austin Barnes for Moore? Would the Dodgers propose it? Could it be sweetened by offering Cotton, Grandal, Kike’ and Baez for Odorizzi and Colome? I am obviously not a GM, and I am one who believes that the Dodgers could not have offered more to Phiilly for Cole Hamels than Texas did without offering Urias and 3-4 other high level prospects, but I think both teams would be getting team controlled players at critical positions of need for this year and subsequent years.
I simply do not see the Dodgers moving Grandal – at least not anytime soon – if for no other reason than F&Z trying to convince themselves (and hopefully others) that they won the Matt Kemp trade (which I personally think they did).
My gut is that with Grandal heating up, the Lucroy ship has sailed. I just can’t see F&Z giving away the farm for him.
Perhaps I’m being myopic but I do not see the need to add another top-of-the rotation guy, especially if it’s going to cost the Dodgers a boatload of their top prospects. At this point I’d be ok with Kershaw, McCarthy and Kazmir heading into the postseason, with Maeda (if healthy) as a number four. (I really like a left-handed-strong rotation – especially when one of the is Kershaw).
Although I expect the Dodgers to something before the August 1 trade deadline, I do not think they are going to make a blockbuster trade.
That being said, I’m not as anti-Aroldis Chapman as I once was and wouldn’t mind seeing him setting up Kenley over Baez. But here again, Chapman would be a rental that would cost the Dodgers a ton in prospects to a very prospect-hungry Yankees team.