June 26th, 2016 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline a little over a month away, this is the time of year where we begin hearing the word “untouchable.” By this, of course, we’re talking about blue chip prospects within the Dodgers minor league system that have a very real shot at making it the the major leagues as a Dodger and should not, under any circumstances, be traded regardless of the return.
Realistically, there is no such thing as an untouchable prospect if the return is great enough. But by the same token there are some prospects – albeit very few – who are so extremely talented that they could very well become the face of the franchise or at least significantly increase the franchise’s chances of winning a World Series title over the course of their careers, especially early in their careers. Perhaps the greatest examples of this are guys like Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Jose De Leon and even Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig, whom the Dodgers absolutely refused to include in any trade deals and who are very close to achieving the potential that put and kept them on the untouchable list in the first place.
Jose De Leon most certainly is still on the Dodgers untouchable list.
(Photo courtesy of OKC Dodgers)
To their credit, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and current and former general managers Farhan Zaidi and Ned Colletti stood their ground with these guys when other teams demanded that they be included in trade deals for top tier players. And while doing so may have cost the Dodgers a shot at guys like Cole Hamels, David Price, James Shields (phew!) and several others, the end result is that the Dodgers have built not only a very good major league team but a farm system that will rival that of any other franchise.
So who are this year’s untouchables? Which current prospects can the Dodgers simply not afford to trade away at any cost?
It’s hard to argue that right-hander Jose De Leon is still not among the untouchables; in fact, there is a very good chance that he may be called up to the bigs within the next couple of weeks due to the inability of the Dodgers current starting rotation to get past the fifth inning – Clayton Kershaw notwithstanding. The problem with De Leon is that because of a series of injuries – including a barking shoulder – he is only now up to an 80 to 100-pitch limit that will probably continue for the next month or so. And though Ross Stripling also falls into this same category because of his surgically-repaired right elbow, it’s hard to see the Dodgers trading either of these guys.
With Zach Lee no longer in the mix (having been traded to the Seattle Mariners last week for utility infielder Chris Taylor, who was called up to the Dodgers on Saturday), right-hander Jharel Cotton moves into the role of becoming the most likely candidate to receive the next call-up, thus making him basically untouchable. And then there’s right-hander Brock Stewart, who absolutely rocketed through the Dodgers farm system this season. Steward, a member of the 2015 Advanced Single-A Cal League Champion Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, began the 2016 season back at Rancho but was quickly promoted to Double-A Tulsa shortly after the season began and then promoted again to Triple-A Oklahoma City on June 10. That’s two very significant promotions even before the All-Star break. In fact, were it not for the fact that Cotton is already on the Dodgers 40-man roster and Stewart is not, he might actually be ahead of Cotton on the Dodgers depth chart.
The mere thought that Brock Stewart might make it from Advanced Single-A to the major leagues before the All-Star break is absolutely mind-boggling. (Image courtesy of – milb.com)
This brings us to the dark horse on the untouchable list – at least my untouchable list – 22-year-old right-hander Chase De Jong. Although the 6′-4″, 205-pound Long Beach, California native and lifelong Dodger fan may not be as flashy as guys like De Leon or Stripling or Cotton or Stewart, he is an absolute workhorse. In his last 10 starts, De Jong is 7-1 with a 1.52 ERA (he’s 8-4 with a 2.45 ERA on the season). But in those 10 starts he made it into the fifth inning three times, the sixth inning three times and the seventh inning three times. He suffered his only loss during that run on May 10 when he lasted only four innings, but even then he struck out five. In his last outing on Saturday evening, the former 2012 second round draft pick (by the Toronto Blue Jays) pitched six scoreless innings allowing only five hits and one walk while striking out five. In fact, in five of those last 10 starts De Jong allowed zero runs – earned or otherwise. He also struck out 54 while walking 17 in 59.1 innings pitched during that stretch. Like I said, an absolute workhorse.
Chase De Jong had yet another stellar outing on Saturday allowing no runs and only five hits. It was his fifth shutout in his last 10 starts. (Photo credit – Matt Barnard)
Where things get sticky for the Dodgers is that neither of their two current catchers are producing offensively. Granted, it has long been accepted that a catcher’s value to a team is his defense not his offense, but it’s hard to ignore Yasmani Grandal’s dismal .188 batting average and A.J. Ellis’ only slightly better .205 batting average – especially when the rest of the team is also struggling offensively (save for Corey Seager and the suddenly red hot Justin Turner). And with rumors that the Milwaukee Brewers are entertaining the idea of trading hot-hitting catcher Jonathan Lucroy (.301 / .361 / .504 / .865), it would undoubtedly take guys like De Leon, Cotton, Stewart and De Jong to get Brewers general manager David Stearns to even consider trading Lucroy to the Dodgers.
But here again, would Friedman and Zaidi be better off protecting their young guns by making them untouchable and passing on a guy like Lucroy?
I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
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The interesting thing is that as more and more guys get to the untouchable or close to the untouchable range some become less untouchable because of numbers.
I think that the only truly “untouchables” at this time are Seager and Urias and perhaps De Leon. With continued progress others might get there.
Not sure about Lucroy. That is, will his asking price be too high? He is a free agent after 2017 as there is a team option for 2017. He no doubt is available for the right price.
Are there other needs greater than catching because as you note defense quite often is enough for catchers. Steve Yeager has a number of years hitting in the low .200’s but was a valued member of the team. Of course he was surrounded by some pretty good offensive depth. Also didn’t hurt that Joe Ferguson was around for quite a bit of Yeager’s time with the Dodgers.
Much to like about the pitchers included above, not to mention the young position players like Bellinger and Verdugo who I believe are “untouchable,” but in 2017 and 2018 Dodgers have under contract, or team controlled: Kershaw, Ryu, Maeda, Wood, McCarthy, Urias, Stripling, Bolsinger, Frias, and perhaps Kazmir who all have ML experience. And, pitchers not mentioned like Oaks, Sborz, Montas, Sopko, Holmes, Buehler, along with those just drafted. If team can acquire a catcher like Lucroy for a package of players that include a couple of top pitching prospects not named Urias I think it puts Dodgers in position to compete for WS this season — go for it.
Great and timely topic.
As fans, it is very difficult for us to know who is truly untouchable. We largely rely on a player’s stats to determine how good the player is. That is largely the extent of our knowledge base. We don’t usually know if a player had a small lingering injury effecting their performance or if a pitcher is a small adjustment away from taking it to the next level. It’s very hard for us to determine if a player’s future will be different from his past. That is why I believe “The minor league coaches, instructors and scouts are going to be HUGE in determining if the Dodger organization will be successful in getting to where we want it to be”.
I have been just as frustrated as any fan by the Dodger’s 28 year championship drought. It hurt BAD to see Pedro Martinez pitching for other teams and thinking what could have been. Hindsight shows us the Dodgers blew it BIG TIME many times over the last quarter century. I loved it when the Dodgers promoted Tommy Lasorda to manager back in the seventies, but, I hated that they promoted him to GM. Prior management killed us. The only guy who looked like he had a clue was Dan Evans. This is why I have been such a big supporter of the current management team.
FAZ has taken a lot of heat over the entire eighteen months they have been here. Many criticize that they didn’t get a third ace at the last trading deadline. Others that we didn’t sign the big free agents last winter, even though we already had the highest payroll in baseball and contrary to popular opinion, FAZ didn’t cause that. But, I see a management team creating an innovative organization with top notch scouting, coaching and player development (There’s that Wi-Fi thing again) that will MOSTLY make the right decisions on who is truly untouchable. We can debate whether FAZ is truly building a “top notch organization” but, the evidence is mounting in their favor. The biggest complaints are what they didn’t do not what they did. None of us truly know the prospect cost at trading deadlines or the budget given to management by ownership.
We now have either the first or second highest rated farm system, depending on who you are talking with. Of course, the critics will say they inherited it, but, I like to point to players like Chase De Jong. Look how he was acquired, for a total of $1,071,300 in international bonus pool money. I wonder if the Blue Jays would like that trade back. When have the Dodgers done that kind of thing before? I don’t remember any. It is going to be this kind of transaction that determines if we get that elusive championship. Just look at the Cubs, which is more important to their success this year, Arrieta or Heyward? We probably all know how they were acquired.
The farm system, built by management, will lead us to the promised land, either through providing players or trade chips. Who is untouchable this trade deadline? I don’t know, as you say, probably no one “if the return is great enough”. Thankfully, I have this growing comfort level that the ORGANIZATION being put in place can and will MOSTLY make the right determinations.
All that being said, I really enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts on topics like this and I really appreciate the knowledge articles Ron and Harold write here.
I was a huge supporter of Dan Evans. “Evans was the Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2001 to 2004, rebuilt the Dodgers’ entire baseball organization after it had sunk to a rating of 28th within MLB as he inherited the team and was the primary architect of the Dodgers’ 2004 West Division champions, their first playoff club in eight years. Among his draftees were All-Star outfielder Matt Kemp and catcher Russell Martin. Within two years, the Dodgers set franchise records for pitching and defense, and the organization elevated its ranking to 2nd overall.”
The present front office has also rebuilt the farm system in a short period of time. They did inherit some players but also have contributed and I have no doubt will keep the farm system at or near the top of the heap annually. They did trade minor league players but judiciously.
I think aggressively moving players up is also important which FAZ seems to do. As mentioned they have honed in on coaching and player development with a wide variety of young coaches who tend to look after young men who happen to be ball players.
Yeah, what was not to like about Dan Evans? I just don’t get what happened there.
I also like how FAZ aggressively moves players through the minor league ranks rapidly. Nothing like a promotion and even a shot at a “spot start” on the big club to motivate a young player. It sends a huge message to these young guys. Might we see a Brock Stewart/Chase De Jong start in the near future? They have earned it. Besides what organization, when looking for a trade piece, could resist a fast rising successful young stud.
Your comment, “The interesting thing is that as more and more guys get to the untouchable or close to the untouchable range some become less untouchable because of numbers” got me thinking of the NBA draft the other night and the Boston Celtics. I think they had seven or eight draft picks. All the other teams knew they couldn’t draft and keep all these players. Looked to me that the value of the draft picks went down because of this. I think FAZ is running into a similar situation. Other teams seeing the “filled to the brim” farm system and want to take advantage of the situation. This probably makes it harder to make “judicious” use of the prospects we have.
We all know sellers at the trade deadline usually make a killing. It is a seller’s market. The untimely (so far) demise of Adrian Gonzalez, injuries to Andre Ethier and others has left us with many weak spots. Of course, all teams have them and I am still optimistic we will either still win the division or get a wild card spot. What can we do to SIGNIFICANTLY improve our chances in the playoffs without decimating the farm system? I know I am passing on Jay Bruce with the asking price I saw today. Lucroy would be nice, but at what price?
I keep thinking about a Friedman interview I saw last winter. He said we would be OK in 2016, but, 2017 and beyond was looking awfully good. I keep thinking about all the potential ones and twos we have in our system and don’t want to lose that.
I agree that FAZ is not shy about moving/pushing players in the organization; Brock Stewart and Trevor Oaks moving from Rancho to OKC this year. While Oaks has yet to pitch for OKC, Stewart has had good success in his promotion. I would agree that he has conceivably passed Cotton. FAZ is a little more deliberate with the position players during the season, but with Bellinger (21 in July), Verdugo (20), and Calhoun (21) at AA at their age puts them on an aggressive path. I am curious to see what happens with Mitch Hansen. He is off to a very good start at Ogden so I would think that a promotion to Great Lakes may be in the not too distant future. I am hoping that he eventually gets moved to Rancho before the year is out. He is three levels behind Verdugo at the same age.
De Jong is not the only trade for international signing bonus that may work out. Caleb Dirks and Jordan Paroubek were also acquired last year the same way. Dirks could find himself in the ML bullpen by next year. He arguably has two pitches (fastball/slider) with an occasional change for show, which he can work with rather than the one pitch of Pedro Baez. Dirks will not close, but the middle relievers are also very much valued (ask KC). Paroubek is projected to be a 4th OF, but so is SVS and maybe Trayce Thompson. Every team needs them. That seems to be the part of the puzzle that people miss when judging FAZ. They are building a team/organization. You will not get/buy a team entirely of Kershaw’s and Trout’s, so the 15th-25th players on the 25 man are critical to winning a championship. Unfortunately, they tried to build the bridge with players that have not panned out at the ML level for 2016.
I am not an advocate for Jay Bruce. That would come across as trying to appease fans with a name rather than sticking with what will help in the long run. Lucroy is different. The Dodgers do not have much in potential long-term catching coming. I do not believe that Barnes or Farmer are long term solutions as both are older than true prospects in their respective leagues, so they are probably destined to be backups. I do believe that both could be good to very good utility players and as a third catcher, but the Dodgers need a mainstay behind the plate, and I get the impression that FAZ does not believe that Barnes is that guy. Lucroy has already said that he is not a big city guy so will he be happy with LA? That certainly needs to be a consideration when determining what to give up as far as prospects.
Untouchables?? Kershaw, Seager, and Urias.
Apparently the Dodgers have some interest in Jay Bruce to add a left side hitter to the outfield. I guess he would platoon with Puig.
I would like to add Lucroy. I would hope that Grandal would be included to decrease the number of prospects needed to get him.
Maybe De Leon has had enough injuries to take him off the untouchable category. Between De Leon, Cotton, Stewart and De Jong, I would want to keep Stewart. Not sure how his tools compare to the other three, but he is rising so quickly I think his whole is greater than the sum of his tools.
For some reason I think of Sonny Gray when I think of Stewart.
Back to Lucroy–it would be nice if Cotton, De Jong, and Grandal would suffice and if not I would see Diaz go instead of De Leon.
Also, if the Dodgers need a left side hitter to platoon with Puig, I would love to see Verdugo or Bellinger get a cup of coffee instead of trading for Bruce.
I was thinking of a similar trade scenario of Grandal, Cotton, and Oaks. I would have no problem throwing in Calhoun or Farmer to acquire Lucroy. Also, the Dodgers have a long list of guys projected to be ready for next year’s rotation in Maeda, Kazmir, Ryu, McCarthy, Wood, Deleon, Stripling, Urias, and possibly Stewart. When you add them to CK that’s 10 guys big league ready for the 2017 rotation.
I would like this management group weaned off the idea of platoons. How about we just find guys who can hit? We have a team batting average of .236. Clearly the platoon system is not working.
And after several hundred moves covering two off seasons and one trade deadline we have nobody ready to step in and help. Nice planning guys. Our pitching staff is Clayton Kershaw followed by a bus load of wannabe ML pitchers. . The pen can blow them away or burn down the house. This team, as it is currently constructed, is boring. And their answer is Jay Bruce?
You don’t think they are/have been looking for guys that can hit? If you can’t find guys that can hit both lefties and righties, maybe you have to try platooning.
Looks to me the “planning” the last eighteen months has been to build the farm system, shed bad contracts, get payroll under control, make opportunistic trades, hope the guys left with big contracts, Gonzalez, Ethier and Crawford produce. Pitching would look pretty darn good with more hitting.
What’s your plan, starting today? Considering both short and long term. We agree, I think, Jay Bruce not the answer, at the rumored cost.
My plan?
Punt.
By that I mean just stick to the youth movement plan – don’t trade any young talent and certainly not for a guy like Jay Bruce. Keep all of it and figure out who is and who is ain’t Major League talent. It’s weird to me that NOBODY in our system is ready to help. But that appears to be the case. It’s a shame we’ve wasted Kershaw’s prime years, but he hasn’t exactly lit it up post season, so, some of it is on him.
If we start hitting, big if, we can contend for the tournament. But honestly, this doesn’t look like a playoff team and you know I haven’t believed since last year’s deadline choad swallowing. I think the minor league system is healthy enough to wait for it. In the mean time, patience – all the old guys will be gone soon enough. I figure 2018 we should be young and athletic. Til then, hold your nose.
Badger, I do not know why it is weird that there is nobody ready to step up; or at least why it is a surprise. The minor leagues did not have anyone at the ready before FAZ, so how can FAZ change that in eighteen months? That is why OKC is filled with Charlie Culberson, Brandon Hicks, Rob Segedin, Rico Noel, Alex Hassan, Corey Brown, Jack Murphy, etc. FAZ is allowing guys like Bellinger, Verdugo, Scavuzzo, Calhoun, and yes the Cubans to get more time (Diaz – 19 at A+ and Estevez – 18 at A-). IMO that is the appropriate plan. Next year there will be a normal progression, and the former will be relieved by the latter.
I agree, Jay Bruce is not an upgrade and should not be pursued. I do not know what it would take to get Lucroy, but it will probably be too much. So what are the options for the Deadline? I do not see any reason to deviate from the course they are on. Continue to try and compete without tearing down what they have built up. Build up Urias, and continue to push De Leon, De Jong, Stewart, Oaks, Sborz, and Holmes. Start Stripling back up. Hope Ryu and McCarthy can help at the break, so as not to rush the future. And if Montas and Buehler can rebound from their injuries there could be more than enough pitching. It’s the offense that is the question, and with all of the immovable contracts, what can they do. There is no reason to push the pitching any faster if the offense cannot score runs. I still think they can get to the Wild Card. Winning the WS, not so much. If they become sellers, I can see Justin Turner, AGon, Howie Kendrick, Kike’ Hernandez, Grandal, and Kenley all possible moves.
Good posts, both of you.
I believe we are all basically in agreement, stick with the plan, “the youth movement”, but, look into everything and open to opportunistic trades. I think we are in good hands with FAZ based on the “organization” they are building.
I think we will, at least, probably get a wild card (remember Midgets won two championships from wild card), but, I don’t think it’s a good idea to cash in lots of our trade chips in lopsided deals this year hoping for instant gratification. We are largely locked into what we already have, our existing players could start playing better and there is, hopefully, reinforcements on the way. Isn’t Jay Bruce, Andre Ethier? I would think Ethier will be back by the end of August. Won’t he?
I could see FAZ moving some of the players you mentioned AlwaysCompete (could reap a nice haul) in the right deal. Not a rebuild, but, a regroup.
Interesting article on Texas Ranger’s thinking last year when they acquired Hamels. Might also explain FAZ’s “last year’s deadline choad swallowing” (at least from Badger’s viewpoint). Maybe they didn’t feel they had the “organization” in place to properly evaluate the talent involved in any proposed Hamels trade.
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20160626/rangers-trade-for-hamels-could-be-blueprint-for-bostons-pitcher-pursuit
As you know, Hamels was my choice last year. Though the Rangers didn’t win it all, they went for it, and I respect that. And they look pretty good now, with the system still ready to produce.
My gut tells me FAZ never really believed in the roster they were handed and are merely nibbling at the margins as they churn it. It will take time. I was pissed last year, and I have maintained my position on the issues this year, and it just makes sense to buckle up and go for the ride with these guys. If we are still 7-8 games behind in a month, we will watch as the Giants make the moves that Bochy wants, and they will make moves, and our chances to catch them will be further diminished. At that time, nothing Dodger management does will surprise me. In the mean time, for the next 30 days, I will do what I always do – pull for my team to put together a win streak and hope the gints fall apart.
I absolutely positively agree with this 100%.