June 24th, 2016 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka When former Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta refused to re-sign first-time free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre after the 2004 season, he did so because the then 25-year-old Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native and his agent Scott Boras were looking for a high-dollar contract that would allow the 2004 NL MVP runner-up to again become a free agent in five years; this in spite of the fact that DePodesta was willing to go six years guaranteed with an option for a seventh year but at a lower Average Annual Value (AAV).
“We’re disappointed. It hurts,” DePodesta said at the time. “Obviously, we would have loved to have him back. I think all of us knew this certainly was a possibility. We feel like we stepped up and made a very competitive offer, actually tried to make it a compelling one by offering a sixth guaranteed year. Unfortunately for us, Adrian decided to go elsewhere.”
Oh it hurt all right.
Over the next 12 seasons (five with the Mariners, one with the Red Sox and six with the Rangers) Beltre posted a slash-line of .290 / .340 / .484 for an OPS of .824. And while these numbers alone may not be Hall of Fame-worthy, his four Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers and five seasons of hitting above the .300 mark (including .334 in his final season with the Dodgers) make him a strong first ballot Hall of Fame candidate.
DePodesta was fired by the Dodgers one year later, this in spite of the fact that he had served only two years of his five-year contract with the McCourt-owned Dodgers. And though the reason for DePodesta’s abrupt firing was never revealed publicly, it’s impossible to believe that it wasn’t because of the Beltre debacle.
Since Beltre’s departure the Dodgers have yet to sign another third baseman with Beltre’s offensive and defensive skills. In fact, over the past ten years – 2006 through 2016 – the Dodgers have had exactly two third baseman hit above .290 – Michael Young, who hit .314 in his 21 games as a Dodger after being acquired at the August 31, 2014 waiver trade deadline; and current Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who has a combined .295 batting average in his one-plus seasons with the Dodgers. That’s it, only two – and you really can’t count Young’s numbers because it is a very small sample size.
After his remarkable first season with the Dodgers in 2014 during which Turner hit a Beltre-like .340 with an on-base percentage of .404 and a slugging percentage of .493 for an OPS of .897 followed by a slash-line of .294 / .370 / .491 for an OPS of .861 in 2015, the extremely popular redhead got off to a horrible start in 2016; but then again, so did every other Dodger not named Corey Seager. In fact, in his first 35 games this season, Turner went 29 for 121 for a rather dismal .239 batting average with six doubles, one triple, one home run and only nine runs batted in. And while his numbers in his second 35 games aren’t significantly better at 30 for 121 for a slightly better .247 batting average, it’s what he’s done over the past two weeks that give Dodger fans reason to celebrate.
Turner has hit four home runs in his last six games, including this one on June 17 – his second of the night. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
In his last 15 games Turner is 18 for 58 (.310) with two doubles, seven home runs and 15 RBIs. And in his last seven games he is 9 for 26 (.346) with four home runs and nine RBIs. These aren’t Beltre-like numbers, they’re better than Beltre-like numbers.
Now granted, it’s highly unlikely that Turner will be able to maintain the torrid pace he has been on for the past week but there is every reason to believe that his early-season slump is finally over.
“I was swinging the bat okay for my standards,” Turner said about the first two months of the season. “Finally on that last road trip I started getting better results and things have been going pretty good since then.”
Pretty good indeed. Of his 10 home runs thus far this season, seven have come since June 7 and four in his last six games.
And then there’s Turner’s defense at third base. In the 66 games in which Turner has played third base this season, he has committed only three errors in 140 total chances for an impressive .979 fielding percentage. And while these numbers are not up to the standard of Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who many consider the best third baseman in the game today and who has committed only one error in 215 total chances for an alien-like .995 FPCT, they aren’t all that far behind Beltre’s two errors in 184 total chances (.989 FPCT).
Although there has been quite a bit of discussion in the media about rookie shortstop Corey Seager eventually being moved over to third base, doing so when Turner is playing as good as he is on both sides of the ball would be a huge mistake. And even though the Long Beach, California native will be 32 years old on November 23, he has more than proven himself as being among the best everyday third baseman in the game.
Turner signed a one-year / $5.1 million contract this past January thus avoiding arbitration – an absolute bargain at the price. However, he becomes a free agent at the conclusion of this season. And while Turner is nowhere near the same caliber third baseman that Adrian Beltre was when entering free agency for the first time, the Dodgers might want to think twice about letting a very good third baseman get away from them.
…again.
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Yes, Turner has been a Godsend. His first year with the Dodgers was actually 2014 when he hit an amazing .340. Great signing by Ned. As I recall Turner and his wife wanted to be in LA and signed a very team friendly contract.
What kind of contract do you think Dodgers should give him? Years and money?
Speaking of good acquisitions.
From True Blue LA: “Now that’s a way to welcome yourself to a new organization. Chris Taylor, in his second game with Triple-A Oklahoma City since getting traded from Seattle, went 4-for-4 with a double on Thursday against Round Rock, scoring a run and driving in another.
Taylor, who played third base on Thursday after playing shortstop in his OKC debut on Wednesday, is 5-for-8 with two doubles since joining the Dodgers. Taylor has a seven-game hitting streak, hitting 14-for-27 (.519) during that span, and has reached base by hit or walk in 21 straight games dating back to May 31, hitting .373/.441/.506 in that streak”.
l definitely agree. This is not a good time to give up on Turner. Aside from this year’s slow start he certainly is starting to look like his old self.
We sat patiently and waited for Turner’s slump to end… if it would end… when it would end. Patience is a virtue. And by all indications, Justin Turner’s horrendous slump is finally over.
And why wouldn’t it be? He’s torn the cover off the baseball ever since becoming a Dodger. A guy with such a great swing was bound to come off as conqueror to the demons that beset even the greatest of players.
Here’s to his continued success this season; it might just be what keeps him in Dodger Blue for the next four or five seasons.
I remember waiting somewhat impatiently while Beltre struggled through a couple of seasons. Of course, he was rushed to the majors after the FOX idiocracy threw Todd Zeile in with the Piazza trade. But finally he put up a huge season and…gone. I was pretty ticked off back then–didn’t realize he had waited and waited for the Dodgers to make him an offer. Plus the Dodgers lost their Dominican operations because Beltre signed at 15. I can picture Selig rubbing his hands together and cackling when he found out.
Adrian didn’t actually look like a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer when he got to Seattle, but he’s been great in Boston and Texas. Obviously Turner’s slump will cost him some money but I hope he hits .300 the rest of the way and remains a Dodger.
Only wish Turner was 5 years younger; love his hitting approach and 3b defense.
They should get JT locked up now. That’s contract, not jail (no reference to Puig here). Same for Kenley.
I really hate using these guys as a good example but:
Look at what the Giants do. They lock up their key players before they hit FA, therefore maintaining continuity.
The Giants sign them when they are young, not when they are 32 like Turner. Look for the Dodgers to try and lock up Seager in the offseason. First, you have to draft good players and then sign them young.
Personally, I think Turner will go elsewhere, because some Idiot GM will give him a 5 year/$75 million contract.
The Dodgers would love to lock him and Kenley up right now, but it won’t happen – the players have too much to lose! They would be dumb to sign now.. unless it’s a 5 year/$75 million contract.
Doubt Dodgers will consider long term deal for Seager until he is closer to being arbitration eligible; after 2018 season.
Or you do what Tampa Bay did for Evan Longoria and sign Seager to a 15 year, 150 million contract. 10 mil a year and the kid gets to be rich now.
Refresh my memory, who was the GM at Tampa Bay that did that for Evan Longoria?
Yeah, that guy…
first contract was 6 years $17.5MM, then in 2012 after 4 years of service he signed the 6 year $100MM extension with options.
I wish I didn’t have to agree with you Mark but I do. I’d love to have JT back on a year-to-year somewhat large contract or even a two year with an option contract but why would he accept that when he’s basically been a utility player all his life and only now at age 32 has a chance to get one payday larger than he probably ever thought he’d get?
ANSWER: He won’t!
Starting today, I’d like to see Turner as our 125 game utility guy for the next 3 years and a stud playing every day at third. Seager is my first choice with a speedy vacuum at short. He could even be a light hitting shortstop as far as I’m concerned. I want to be stronger up the middle, and that includes behind the plate and on the mound. I want a lot of things when it comes to the Dodgers. I’m not getting them.
Reply to Mark Timmons:
They’ve already had the chance with Kenley and didn’t do it. Kenley expressed disappointment that they didn’t discuss long term when he signed for this year.
Friedman seems to think anybody can close.
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