February 5th, 2016 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka During last Saturday’s FanFest event, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw told reporters something that may have gone over a few heads. It had to do with the loss of co-ace Zack Greinke to the division-rival Arizona Diamondbacks and the efforts of Dodgers president of baseball operation Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi to replace him.
“Zack was obviously an incredible pitcher for us for three years and last year arguably one of the best in the game,” Kershaw said. “It’s not easy to replace a guy like that but I think you have to look at it as not replacing him with one guy but replacing him as a staff – bring in more guys that can fill his void – and I think we’ve done that.”
That last part bears repeating – “I think you have to look at it as not replacing him with one guy but replacing him as a staff”
Even with Zack Greinke’s departure, Kershaw believes that the Dodgers front office has successfully replaced him ‘as a staff.’ (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Allow me to elaborate.
During the 2015 season, the Dodgers utilized 16 different starting pitchers. Of those 16 starters only four had winning records – Zack Greinke (19-3), Kershaw (16-7), Brett Anderson (10-9) and (are you ready for this) Brandon McCarthy (3-0). When you add all of these up, we’re talking 48 wins among the four and you really can’t include McCarthy in this group since he made only four starts before being lost for the season – but hey, a winning record is a winning record, right? These 48 wins make up only slightly more than half of the team’s 92 total wins last season – 52.1% to be exact.
Although it will be tough to match the 19 wins that Greinke posted last season, but if anyone can do it Kershaw can. If he does, that leaves it up to Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Brett Anderson and (probably) Hyun-jin Ryu to win a combined total of 29 games (which is 7.25 wins each) to match what Greinke, Kershaw, Anderson and McCarthy did in 2015; and if you can’t get 7.25 wins out of a major league starting pitcher in roughly 30 starts, they shouldn’t be in the major leagues – period.
Obviously, the combined 16 wins that the other 12 starters accumulated and the combined 28 wins attributed to the Dodgers bullpen in 2015 played a huge part in the Dodgers winning their third consecutive NL West title. But when you begin to consider what Messrs. Kershaw, Kazmir, Maeda, Anderson and (probably) Ryu are capable of, you can quickly see exactly what Kershaw meant when he said that the Dodgers front office have replaced Greinke “as a staff.”
Good call Clayton.
Posted in 
My question is how many times will the Dodgers have to score 5 runs or more to win a game this year?
Are they capable of scoring 5 runs enough times this year?
Interesting concept
Assume ace (#1) wins 20 games
Pitchers 2-5 average 11 wins
Good but not ace quality (4 #3’s)
We are up to 64 wins
Add the 28 wins from last years oft derided bull pen
We are at 92 wins
Fine and dandy until you reach the playoffs and have to throw a couple of mediocre pitchers out there and hope your middle relievers can get the ball to Kenley. The postseason is Moneyball’s Achilles’ heel.
I trust you are aware that of the five postseason games the Dodgers played in 2015, Kershaw started two and Greinke started two.
Yes I am. Why was that? Do you think they could have kept it up through the World Series? I hope Ryu is healthy and a couple of other guys step up but I don’t think you can count on many complete-game shutouts in October.
Kershaw and Greinke started 2 each in the 5 post season games. Tell us what happened in the one they didn’t start.
The Dodgers pitching after Kershaw and Greinke was sketchy all year. Now Greinke is gone and we are to believe the rotation is better?
Not necessarily better but good enough to get us there. A lot depends on Ryu and Maeda. But a lot depends on many players.
I mention before on another thread that Kasmir, Maeda, a healthy Ryu and McCarthy when he comes back, look like, to me, will need to win to make up the loss of Greinke. A good Anderson and Wood would definitely help.
There you go again, Ron: confusing people with facts!
Apologies. 😀
The points here are good. While it’d be nice to still have Zack, I agree with the Dodgers that he was overpriced. I think it was ‘zona that made the big mistake. As they did once before, they mortgaged their future. Last time it got them one World Series win. This time it might get them one or two, but maybe none. When that mortgage comes due they won’t be able to hang on to their key players. We could have Goldy at 1b when AGon retires. Don’t forget that Zack has an elbow problem. The day will come when he can’t keep pitching through it. Maybe not this year or next, but it’ll probably happen within six years.
We now know that Hyun Jin Ryu had the problem with his shoulder before signing with the Dodgers. With that fixed it’s very possible that we’ll see a better pitcher this year. I think the Dodger rotation is better this year. Any comparison would have to consider what Zack would have done this year, not what he did last year. He won’t have as good a year as he did in 2015. I’m breaking my own rule here, as I quit making baseball predictions on Sept. 17, 1996, but I think this is a safe one. Of course, I did think the prediction I made that day (there’d never be a no-hitter in Coors Field) was safe too.
One or two World Series wins? I’m sure ,right now, we wouldn’t mind that.
The Dodgers had the fifth best ERA (3.44) in MLB in 2015, ranked third in K’s (1396) and third in fewest walks (395). Now a fair amount of that was the Greinke effect but there still had to be strong contributions elsewhere on the staff. It is possible to approach those figures this year with a healthy, extended staff as pointed out in the article. Good point that most likely Zack will not repeat the season he had last year. I expect it will always be good but not that exceptional each year.
I don’t think they will have to score five runs to win games most of the time. Obviously there will be some of those games as there always are in the course of a season.
I think the offense will be considerably better. Do I wish they had a good OBP speedster leading off? Well, yes I do but I think the potential to be a more potent offense will be there as I don’t think all of those conditions that helped derail it last year will replicate themselves.
That is – Grandal Kendrick, Crawford, Turner, Utley, SVS, Kike playing hurt as well as Puig’s hamstring saga. I expect the loop in Joc’s swing will be gone and he will drive the ball instead of trying to loft it. I expect Puig will be more of the player we all hope and think he can be. Also the Seager factor is hopeful, not with wild expectations, but with more offensive consistency from the shortstop spot.
Is that wishful thinking? Perhaps, but it tops the expectation that all of those offense killing things will happen on an annual basis.
Also a healthy team will play much better defense behind our pitchers.
Ryu may be the key to the pitching staff as well as the relief corps getting from starter to closer.
I agree that Ryu is the key. We all know what Kershaw can do. The others appear to be solid, but not spectacular.
It all hinges on when and how Ryu returns from surgery. He may have lost something, though I really doubt it. More likely he’ll be as good or better (OK, there may be some wishful thinking there).
If he comes back the same pitcher he has been with the Dodgers he’s still a solid #2 guy. Remember, Zack was not the standard for a #2 pitcher. On most teams he would have been #1 (and I include the Snakes and Giants, which I’m sure will provoke argument from MadBum fans if they read this).
My hope is, with a healthy shoulder, he’ll be even better than we’ve seen him.
OldBrooklynFan: Your name and pic suggest you’re a Dodgers fan. My comment regarded the Snakes’ situation. I reckon I’m not clear who “we” is, so I’ll answer both ways.
To Snake fans: I’m sure you’d love it, “right now”. But what about a few years down the road when they’re dismantling the team because they can’t afford to sustain it, when they don’t have any studs coming from the minors to take their places? What if (and I only say “if” out of respect for Zack) they’re paying a pitcher who doesn’t have it anymore $30+ million? Will you be so content then?
To Dodger fans: The team is being built for the long haul. If they stay the course, and all indications are they will, the Dodgers will be winners for a long time to come. They may have an off year now and then, but won’t have any long term collapses in my lifetime, or the lifetime of an OldBrooklynFan.
In for the long haul – only way to go. Build don’t just buy.