February 12th, 2016 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka We’ve been hearing about it for over a year now – Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi want to “get younger” as a team.
On Thursday morning the two Dodger execs finally saw the fruits of their efforts as the Friedman-Zaidi-led Dodgers were recognized by Baseball America as having the best overall talent in the minor leagues.
(Image courtesy of Baseball America)
To be fair, most of the Dodgers top prospects are at or above the Double-A level which means that it wasn’t Friedman and Zaidi’s people responsible for drafting them. That credit goes to former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and even more so to former Dodgers scouting director Logan White, who is now a senior advisor to Padres general manager A.J. Preller and the Friar’s pro scouting director.
Just last month Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked 21-year-old shortstop Corey Seager, 19-year-old left-hander Julio Urias and 23-year-old right-hander Jose De Leon as the Dodgers top-3 prospects respectively. One month later, MLB.com ranked Seager as the number one overall prospect in all of baseball, with Urias coming in fourth and De Leon 24th.
Needless to say, when you’ve got three guys in the top-25, your scouting, drafting and player development staffs are doing something right – especially when you consider that the Dodger haven’t had a top-10 draft pick since Clayton Kershaw was selected seventh overall in the 2006 MLB First-Year Player Draft.
Dodgers shortstop prospect Corey Seager has been ranked number one on every major prospect list this off-season. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Where Friedman and Zaidi have excelled in their first two off-seasons with the Dodgers is finding former first-rounders who have had serious injuries early in their careers up to and including Tommy John surgery. Where other teams have passed on guys like Brandon Beachy and even on aging veterans like Joe Blanton, the two analytics gurus see them as pitching depth. They also went after guys like 30-year-old Brandon Hicks – a former third-round draft pick in 2007 – who they signed this past week to a minor league contract with an invite to big league spring training camp. And while none of these guys figured into the Dodgers number one talent ranking, they make the Dodgers high minor league teams very competitive and give the big league team much-needed depth heading into a grueling 162-game season.
But perhaps Friedman and Zaidi’s biggest contribution in their efforts to get younger isn’t what they did, it’s what they didn’t do. As the pair entered their second off-season with the team and under harsh criticism from Dodger fans to ‘do something’ (like trade for Marlins ace Jose Fernandez), Friedman and Zaidi stood their ground and refused to trade away their top blue chip prospects. In fact, there were very few teams even willing to discuss possible trades with the Dodgers because Friedman and Zaidi made it known that Seager, Urias, De Leon and other top Dodger prospects such as Cody Bellinger, Grant Holmes, Alex Verdugo and Jharel Cotton were off the table. Of these seven guys, Cotton and De Leon are the oldest at 24 and 23 respectively, with Seager at 21, Bellinger at 20, and Urias, Holmes and Verdugo at 19.
No matter how you slice it, that is getting younger.
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Of the Dodgers top 30 prospects, half have been acquired by the Friedman team: Frankie Montas, Walker Buehler, Micah Johnson, Yadier Alvarez, Yusiel Diaz, Austin Barnes, Mitch Hansen, Starling Heredia, Trayce Thompson, Brendon Davis, Chase De Jong, Omar Estevez, Josh Sborz, Jordan Paroubeck, and Willie Calhoun.
Oh, my. If you look back over the Dodgers “top” prospects on BA going back to 1999 you realize half these guys will never make it. Prospects who haven’t even made it to A ball are lottery tickets. I’m tired of hearing where some “experts” rank our farm system–what good does it do if we’re going to get beat in the playoffs every year? When Corey Seager loses his prospect status, there goes our #1 ranking. Will that mean the farm system suddenly got worse?
As for guys like Brandon Hicks, the less said the better. They’re taking roster spots away from younger guys who might have a future. I don’t think Blanton will solve the bullpen puzzle any more than Peralta did. Beachy was really good once and may be again, but probably not with the Dodgers.
I agree that a ranking is just that. It is subjective in many respects. The proof of the pudding is in how many of those youngsters make it to MLB.
However, I personally like rankings as they are not only feel-good but suggest strength relative to other MLB teams. Plus, no matter what the comparisons I would much sooner be at or near the top of the list rather than be middle or bottom of the list.
This is what Logan White said: “. One of the first things I did when I came here was look at the history of the Dodgers drafts. I looked at how many players they produced and I broke it down by the decade. They produced roughly 30 per decade up until the 1990s and then it was about 12. I found out by looking at that that the key to success—at least getting to the World Series and having championship teams—is that you need to produce about 30 major-league players. And when I say 30, what I mean is that they need to have five years of major-league service time or better. Guys who just a got a cup of coffee don’t count.”
He’s saying 30 per decade are needed to keep a team competitive. That’s not nearly as many as I might have guessed. But, I am guessing the present efforts by FAZ will yield at 30 over a ten year period.
FAZ as it stands today will most definitely not be around for 10 years. I’ve already said that Zaidi is probably gone after this year. Anthopoulos was not brought to the front office to carry their lunches every day and make them look good. HE is the sitting ‘executive of the year’, not them. He will either be replacing one or the other….mark my words.
Try breaking that 30 per decade down a bit. At 3 rookies per year (remember we’re talking about guys who are going to stick) you’ve got a whole new line-up in 3 years. In seven years you have a whole new active roster (OK, 1 short actually. I guess that’s Corey.)
I’m just hoping the Dodgers are building a championship team for years to come. One that will have very few changes as the years go by.
Free agency does not allow for this, Joe. Those days are long gone. The best that any team can hope for is perhaps three consecutive Championship years.
But then again, building a strong farm system means that there is young talent behind them when they leave which, of course, is the entire point.
The getting younger hasn’t really started yet. Everybody in the lineup was there last year and none of them are younger. Maeda is 28 soon and Kazmir is 32. Blanton is 35.
2018 is the target year.
Badger also the year of financial emancipation.
Excluding Kershaw, of course. ; )
I think that perhaps you are overlooking the fact that F&Z did not go hog wild by signing a bunch of expensive free agents this off-season (including Greinke) and instead protected the Dodgers top prospects. And, as SoCalBum noted, they went out and acquired several more. (BTW, SCB, I LOVE your appreciation for the minors!).
Fortunately, the Dodgers have the financial wherewithal to be able to sign guys like Howie and Blanton to hold down the fort until guys like Johnson, Verdugo, Scavuzzo, De Jong and Sborz (all of whom I REALLY like) are MLB ready. (Utley? Don’t get me started on that one).
I agree that guys like OldBrooklynFan – who are looking for immediate gratification at any cost – may be disappointed this season, but I’ll up your 2018 to 2017 with the pitching the Dodgers have on the near horizon.
I have to call you on the “at any cost” comment. There were those of us who said anyone but Seager and Urias. I think we could have had somebody better than Latos (Hamels) with a package that began with DeLeon. We will never know, but when you get that close for the third straight year, and don’t close the deal……. yeah, frustration. And if it isn’t done by 2018, or even if it is, I can see Kershaw finishing up in Texas.
In defense of OldBrooklynFan: some of us may not have a whole lot longer to wait. But then, Vinny and Tommy have 20+ years on me, so maybe I do.
I do like what the Dodgers are doing.
Regarding Utley: Remember, they had no idea they’d be getting Kendrick back when they signed him. I’m thinking they wouldn’t have signed him if they knew.
“may not have a whole lot longer to wait” hmmmmmmmmmmm
Yeah, you season ticket holders must be looking forward to that 2018 rebate when the payroll finally comes down.
When I saw what Snider wrote about the season ticket holders, and saw your reaction, it reminded me of what I saw on Hot Stove on the MLB Channel. They were talking to Larry King, and they told him that they liked his season seats. And Larry kind of mumbled something, and they asked Larry what he was saying. And Larry said that they didn’t sign Greinke, but they still raised the prices again! I guess you would have needed to hear how King said it, because it was funny. And I know by reading here, and your reaction, that you have season tickets. Larry King is still mad about Greinke, and he was more knowledgeable about current baseball, then I thought. But he is from Brooklyn so he is stuck with the Dodgers, like all of us.
No reason not to expect increases in tickets every year. We still come behind all the big market teams on the FCI (12th). The cost of a Dodgers game is a bargain compared to Boston, the Yankees and the Cubs. Even the Giants are more expensive.
Anyone can get younger but will the W’s decrease because of. The backbone of the past 3 seasons have been Ramirez(gone), Kemp(gone), Gonzalez (aging), Grienke (gone), Jensen (FA year) and Kershaw (2018 op out clause). These players could not finish the task so their reinforcements had better be an improvement.
I prefer the Dodgers to get younger, but they are a year away of having meaningful injections into the 25 man, with real potential depth to add when needed. This year they need to give those “kids” one more year and still contend. Yes Chili, Ramirez, Kemp, and Greinke are gone, but Ramirez did not help the BoSox (maybe hurt them) neither did Sandoval, and Kemp did not make the Padres into a contender (nor did Upton or Shields), and I do not believe the DBacks are better than the Dodgers even with Greinke. And no matter how many times Badger says it, there is no evidence that the Phillies were willing to trade Hamels to LA with Jose De Leon as the centerpiece. That conjecture is no better or more correct than those of us who believe the Phillies were not going to trade Hamels to LA without including Seager and Urias.
I would like to see the Dodgers spend $$$ to extend Kenley Jansen. I would also like to see Chris Anderson go to OKC and learn to be a late inning relief specialist with Rhame as the closer. Next year (2017) the Dodgers will have two to four rookie pitchers (Urias, De Leon, Montas, and Cotton) vying for two rotation spots. Holmes, Buehler, and De Jong not far behind. Anderson and Rhame will be ready for late inning relief. Sborz probably not far behind. Micah Johnson or Kike’ will be the starting 2B and Kendrick will probably be moved to 3B (unless they can get a 3B prospect with some of their OF and SP glut). Barnes will be the backup Catcher (and relieve Grandal more than Ellis will this year). Verdugo, Bellinger, Scavuzzo, and Calhoun will be a year away. Heredia, Diaz, Miesas, and Hanson (maybe) soon thereafter. Plus LAD gets 3 of the first 36 in the 2016 draft. That’s getting younger and better.
Not all of those prospects are going to end up on the Dodgers 25 man (or maybe any 25 man), but many can be packaged in trades for a missing piece (3B or back up SS, or for a solid #2 SP). I would not think the Dodgers will be big players in FA in the near future. After the 2018 season, the only FA I think they sign is Kershaw. Maybe they look at Machado for 3B, and they will undoubtedly look at Price or Fernandez, but I do not believe they will go after Harper ($500 million). I think he ends up a Yankee.
You’ve laid out a best case scenario, and most of the players you mention certainly have major-league potential. I notice you don’t have JT on the 2017 roster. As you know there is little to no depth at third base in the system, hence the interest in the Gurriel brothers, who may be leaning toward the Yankees. Maybe some of our excess pitching and outfield prospects will bring someone in a trade.
As for the two spots in the rotation, we have six pitchers under contract for 2017, so it will take some work to open those spots up. Not necessarily a bad problem to have, but years of following the Dodgers tells me that whichever pitcher they let go will probably win at least 16 games for someone else. I can’t help feeling Montas will probably end up in the pen if he recovers fully from his surgery.
At the rate they’re signing international players and stockpiling draft picks, they might have to buy another Triple-A team.