There’s an old saying that is often attributed to the great Thomas Jefferson: “I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” If this is indeed true, then Jefferson was clearly a Dodger fan – although his timing may have been off by a few decades.

To say that the Dodgers haven’t been lucky would be an out-and-out lie – they have been insanely lucky, which brings up another famous quote – this one by Hall of Fame pitcher Vernon Louis “Lefty” Gomez – which far better describes the Dodgers’ 2015 season: “I’d rather be lucky than good.”

The Dodgers took over sole possession of first place in the National League West on April 17 and have never relinquished it. On May 12 they reached their season-high lead over the Giants of 5.5 games. However during a four-game stretch between May 28 through May 31 and again on June 5 through June 7, their lead dwindled to 0.5 games. Over the next month the Dodgers fluctuated between 0.5 games and 3.0 ahead of their fiercest division rivals until they opened up their lead – again to 5.5 games – two days before the All-Star break. They entered the break with a relatively comfortable 4.5 lead over the Giants.

The Dodgers headed into the All-Star break with a 4.5-game lead over the Giants after beating the Milwaukee Brewers on July 12. (Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)

It is after the All-Star break that the Dodgers got extremely lucky and unlucky at the same time. Since the break, the Dodgers were lucky that on eight days when they lost, the Giants also lost – which could have been disastrous had the Giants won on those days. But by the same token, since the break the Dodgers won 10 games on days when the Giants also won, thereby missing out on several opportunities to pad their lead in the NL West.

Without question, the Dodgers greatest luck has been on their current road trip, having lost five straight for the first time since 2009 with three games remaining before returning to Dodger Stadium. While the Dodgers were being swept by the last place Oakland A’s and the first place Houston Astros, the Giants lost two of three to the St. Louis Cardinals and three of four to the suddenly surging Pittsburgh Pirates. Whereas the Dodgers could have absolutely buried the Giants in the standings if they had won even three of the five, they are also so very lucky that the Giants lost five of their last seven games, thereby remaining 1.5 games behind the Dodgers.

It goes without saying that at some point the Dodgers’ genie is going to climb back into the bottle and their luck will run out. That is, of course, unless they begin playing up to their capabilities and expectations and string together a bunch of wins and no longer need to rely on luck. But the same also holds true for the Giants who, as we all know, have a knack for cranking it up late in the season and through the playoffs.

The bottom line is that the team that turns things around first and quits relying on luck will most likely win the division, while the team that does not will (probably) be watching the playoffs on television.

May the best genie win.