The 2015 MLB First Year Player Draft is scheduled for June 8-10 at the MLB Network’s Studio 42 in Secaucus, New Jersey. The draft each year is one of the highlights of the season for me. I don’t watch it as a full time activity but check in regularly to see what the Dodgers are doing. I do like the rapid rounds of the third day where sometimes unexpectedly a gold nugget is found. The draft is the spawning grounds for the future with teams swimming upstream looking for those ever elusive building blocks.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the MLB draft. Many Dodger fans will recall that Rick Monday was the first player ever selected in the draft, which was created to help provide a more competitive balance among major league teams. Although Monday was drafted by the Kansas City Athletics he later became a significant part of Dodger history with – among other things – his dramatic home run in the 1981 NLCS against the Montreal Expos sending the Dodgers on to victory in the 1981 World Series. The affable Monday is now in his 22nd season as a Dodger broadcaster.

With a new drafting team in place for the Dodgers anticipation runs rampant about how they will proceed in selecting their next 40 players to restock the minor league system. Naturally Dodger fans hope they have the greatest draft ever. However, that feat would be difficult to replicate. Dodger fans may also remember that the 1968 draft by the LA franchise is considered to be one of the best if not the best in drafting history. In all, the Dodgers drafted 15 players in 1968 who later played at the MLB level including Steve Garvey, Ron Cey and Davey Lopes who formed three-quarters of the fab four infield that helped the team reach the World Series four times.

The Class of 1968 is arguable the best ever in the 50-year history of the MLB Draft. It produced “The Infield” of Ron Cey, Bill Russell, Davey Lopes and Steve Garvey, who were together again at last Saturday’s Old-Timers Day at Dodger Stadium. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

This year the Dodgers have four selections in the top 74 picks – 24, 35, 67 and 74. The 35th pick was acquired when shortstop Hanley Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox after the completion of the 2014 season. By signing Ramirez the Red Sox forfeited their Competitive Balance Round pick to the Dodgers. The Dodgers picked up an additional Competitive Balance Round selection in a trade that sent catcher Chris O’Brien and pitcher Ben Rowen to the Orioles.

Thus far we have no clues as to how the drafting team will proceed. Although he always talked about drafting the “best player available,” former Dodger Vice President of Amateur Scouting Logan White selected pitchers in the first round of six of the last seven MLB drafts, and in four of the seven years he selected high school players – including Corey Seager in 2012.

Meanwhile in Tampa Bay in that same time span, Andrew Friedman, presently the Dodgers President of Baseball Operations, selected position players in six of the last seven MLB drafts, selecting high school players in the first round four times.

With the Oakland Athletics from 2008 through 2014, new Dodgers General Manager Farhan Zaidi was part of an organization that also selected position players in six of those years, three of them out of high school.

I expect a case could be made that patterns have been revealed with Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi in their former drafting ventures but it would be a weak one. I also expect that it would be futile to attempt to tie either of them to a pattern or the “best player available” bandwagon. In a May 2009 interview with Baseball Prospectus, Friedman spoke to this drafting paradigm and revealed a bit of what might be termed his philosophy of drafting.

“I think that, definitely, it is the approach that most teams employ. But for us, we factor in a lot of other things as well in terms of overall player procurement and which type of players we feel are more fungible and which types of players we feel are most difficult to acquire. We place a premium on those types of players. We also factor in the international market. Simply said, all of those things contribute, philosophically, to how we approach things.

“How we draft is going to be specific to that specific year,” Friedman added. “We’ll study the trends of a particular draft and look for value. We’re not going to be tied to one overriding philosophy. We’re going to constantly tweak based on what others are doing, on where we can get value at the time.”

General Manager Farhan Zaidi in an interview with David Laurila of FanGraphs spoke to improved scouting and drafting high school players.

”Now [days] people have a long history of these guys dating back at least to the summer before their senior years,” Zaidi said. “And scouting staffs are a little bigger now, so you get more looks…and we don’t think it’s a useful strategy to just lop off half of the draft pool and say we’re just taking these guys. We’re probably going to lose out on talent if we do that…and just to be clear, that’s not something that’s happened in the last three years.

“I think the balancing of value between high school and college guys is something that probably started ten or fifteen years ago and has sort of very slowly and steadily worked its way into what I think is pretty close to parity at this point,” added Zaidi. “And that’s because of team’s drafting tendencies but also because of the correction of what was once a pretty big information asymmetry between these players.”

The 2015 draft year had been advertised as one strong in pitching, however four pitchers projected to be near the top of the leader board have succumbed to injuries. Left-hander Brady Aiken, selected first overall in 2014, did not sign with the Houston Astros. He, along with right-hander Michael Matuella, have both been bitten by the Tommy John surgery bug. Meanwhile, left-hander Kolby Allard has been sidelined with a stress reaction in his back. Another left-hander, Nathan Kirby, has suffered a lat strain. These players now come with a risk factor but both Friedman and Zaidi are clearly risk takers, having signed guys like Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy and, more recently, Brandon Beachy – who all have rather lengthy injury résumés.

It now appears that shortstops Dansby Swanson and Brendan Rodgers may well be selected within the first two or three picks. Another shortstop, Alex Bergman, projects as a top 10 pick. Kyler Murray, one of the best two-sport athletes in the country as a shortstop and a quarterback and who would have been a high pick in June’s Major League Baseball draft, has said he will focus on his college career by attending Texas A&M after finishing high school. Could Murray perhaps be the next Zach Lee?

Vanderbilt’s Dansby Swanson and Lake Mary high schooler Brendon Rodgers figure to be among the first selected in the 2015 MLB First-Year Player Draft. (Photo credit – MLB.com and Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda)

Right-handers Dillon Tate and Carson Fulmer presently project to be the first pitchers chosen and perhaps as the first overall selection – sandwiched around Rogers and Swanson. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the coveted first overall selection, which will be made by former Dodger and current Diamondbacks General Manager Dave Stewart and Assistant General manager De Jon Watson. Will the Dodger influence have rubbed off on them?

Dodger fans may also recall that Cuban left-hander Onelki Garcia was selected by the Dodgers in the third round of the 2012 draft. In the upcoming draft another Cuban pitcher has been declared draft eligible by MLB. Yoandy Fernandez will be the oldest player available in the draft at age 27. His selection may depend on whether a team views him as a starter or a reliever.

Who will the Dodgers choose with their first round pick in 2015? I expect at this point the drafting team has some definite ideas but nothing etched in stone. Baseball America in its MLB Mock Draft 2015: Version 2.0 suggests the Dodgers will select last year’s first overall pick , the Tommy John surgery-rehabbing Brady Aiken. Their reasoning: “L.A. seems as likely as any team to take on the injured pitchers, but that’s more hunch than inside info.” Perhaps that assessment is based on the 2014 draft in which the Dodgers selected four pitchers who had already undergone Tommy John Surgery – Trevor Oaks, Joe Broussard, Jeff Brigham and Caleb Ferguson. Aiken is only 18 so maybe Friedman and Zaidi don’t see it as a risk and will pencil him in if he is still available with the 24th pick. I am guessing he won’t be.

Most other mock drafts have the Dodgers drafting a pitcher with no two being named twice. Right-handers Kyle Colby, Ashe Russell, Cody Ponce and left-handers Kolby Allard, Tyler Jay and Justin Hooper have been named as possible Dodger draftees. Outfielder/First Baseman DJ Stewart was cited as a possible Dodger selection in one mock draft.

Whoever the selections may be this year, be prepared for some surprises. Look for players that Andrew Friedman describes as “fungible” – that is, Kike Hernandez-type players.