With opening day still three months away it’s probably safe to say that the furthest thing on Dodgers manager Don Mattingly’s mind right now is who he will bat in the leadoff spot now that Dee Gordon is gone.

Ironically, although Gordon’s 64 stolen bases led all of baseball in 2014, he was actually a sub-par leadoff batter with his rather weak .326 on-base percentage. And lest we forget how awful Gordon was in the postseason when he went 3 for 17 (.176) with six strikeouts and an even more dismal .176 OBP. Now granted, it’s not fair to blame all of the Dodgers NLDS shortcomings on Gordon, but he definitely did not help matters any.

If you were to use last season’s on-base percentage as the primary factor in deciding who leads off off in 2015, the clear choice would be Darwin Barney (.467), Justin Turner (.404) or Scott Van Slyke (.386). The problem with this, however, is blatantly obvious – all of these guys are utility bench players. But it’s the next guy on the OBP list that may have Mattingly scratching his chin come April 6.

Dodgers utility infielder Justin Turner not only led the Dodgers with his .340 batting average in 2014, his .404 on-base percentage was second best behind only Darwin Barney’s .467 OBP.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Star outfielder Yasiel Puig had an on-base percentage of .382 in 2014 – a very good OBP by any measure. The problem is, with Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp no longer wearing Dodger Blue, Puig is suddenly the biggest right-handed threat in the Dodgers line-up – this in spite of his sub-.300 (.296) batting average in 2014. (Turner hit a team-high .340 and Van Slyke .297). And with left-handed batters Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford likely to bat in the heart of the Dodgers batting order, Mattingly would be best served having Puig batting between them. That being said, Puig led off 11 times for the Dodgers in 2014 and 28 times in 2013.

Of the returning Dodgers, Carl Crawford is perhaps Mattingly’s best option to leadoff in 2015. Not only did the left-hander hit .300 with a decent .332 OBP in 2014, but he also stole 23 bases – second only to Dee Gordon. And if the 33-year-old Houston, Texas native can stay healthy, Dodger fans may get to see why he was a four-time American League stolen base champion. Crawford batted in the leadoff spot 467 times in 1,617 games played during his 13-year MLB career – including seven times with the Dodgers in 2014.

Newcomer Howie Kendrick has a career OBP of .332 but the problem with him leading off is that he did so only 27 times in 1,081 games during his nine-year MLB career for Mike Scioscia’s Angels. He also has only 95 career stolen bases, thus making him an unlikely leadoff candidate.

This puts all eyes on the Dodgers recently acquired and likely everyday shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who led off 1,459 times in 2,090 games over his 15-year MLB career. And although the 36-year-old Oakland native had a Dee Gordon-like .323 OBP in 2014, he has a career OBP of .327 with 453 stolen bases – fourth most among all active players. (Note: Crawford is second with 470 career stolen bases behind only Ichiro Suzuki, who has 487 but is still unsigned for 2015).

Although newcomer Jimmy Rollins will probably get the nod as the Dodgers leadoff batter in 2015, Carl Crawford is statistically the better choice. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Without even one spring training pitch having been thrown yet, there is every reason to believe that Jimmy Rollins will at least begin the spring (and the season) as the Dodgers leadoff batter. But if the Dodgers new so-called “geek squad” front office goes purely by the numbers, and their reputations certainly suggest that they will, Carl Crawford is perhaps the Dodgers best leadoff option.

Play Ball!