It was a classic line, yet it was so very Zack Greinke-esque:
“I don’t want to make his head too big, but I thought Stan Kasten was like the smartest guy I’ve ever talked to.”
The date was December 11, 2012 and the Dodgers had just officially introduced the (then) 28-year-old Orlando, Florida native as the newest member of the Dodgers. Kasten had just signed Greinke to a MLB record-setting six-year / $147 million contract, for which Kasten and the rest of Guggenheim Baseball Management group received harsh criticism from the national media who accused the new Dodger owners of trying to “buy a championship.”
As it turns out, Kasten may not have been the smartest guy Greinke had ever talked to – that distinction now appears to belong to Greinke’s agent Casey Close, who also just so happens to represent some guy named Clayton Kershaw (but we’ll come back to that in a minute).
Although Greinke was the new all-time leader for the largest contract for a pitcher, an honor he would hold for exactly two months until Seattle’s “King” Felix Hernandez topped it with a seven-year / $175 million contract, the Dodgers felt that the hard-throwing right-hander was worth every penny of it – and oh were they right.
In his first two seasons with the Dodgers Greinke not only posted a phenomenal 32-12 record with a Kershaw-like 2.68 ERA, but he won a Silver Slugger award in 2013 and a Gold Glove in 2014 and was named to the 2014 NL All-Star team. Greinke also finished eighth and seventh in the NL Cy Young award voting in 2013 and 2014 respectively. (Note: Greinke was the sixth overall draft pick in 2002 by the Royals and finished fourth in the 2004 AL Rookie of the Year voting. He won the AL Cy Young award in 2009).
So what makes Casey Close even smarter than Stan Kasten? Check out Greinke’s six-year contract with the Dodgers and you’ll see:
When Greinke and the Dodgers agreed to this contract, it’s safe to say that nobody paid much attention to that opt-out clause; let’s be honest here – we were all just happy to have him. But now that it is but 33 or perhaps 34 starts away, it suddenly has Dodger fans (and the media) in a frenzy. But the truth of the matter is that it was an absolute work of genius by Casey Close, who knew full well that the value of starting pitching was only going to go up and that Greinke’s seemingly extremely high salary would eventually become below market value for a top-tier number one (or one-A in Greinke’s case), and that he would probably be worth more than $23 or $24 million towards the back end of the deal.
Realistically, the Dodgers would be foolish to let Greinke get away, but Dodger fans need to remember that he will be pitching as a 32-year-old in 2016 and as a 34-year-old in 2018. But the bottom line is that Greinke has more control over his future as a Dodger than the Dodgers themselves. That being said, the Dodgers have to be very cognizant of that opt-out clause and have to wonder if the scary smart right-hander is worth $71 million over the final three years of the contract. Then again, if Greinke continues to put up the same kind of numbers in 2015 as he did in the first two years of the contract, he could possibly be worth more that that – which is what makes Casey Close the absolute best agent in the business (sorry Scott).
Now, about that Clayton Kershaw thing. Guess what Casey Close stuck into Kershaw’s seven-year / $215 million contract? Yep, there it is right there:
With Hot Stove rumors running rampant, those claiming that the Dodgers are actively shopping Zack Greinke are among the craziest. Although the Dodgers will indeed have to address Greinke’s opt-out clause at the end of the 2015 season and will, in all probability, have to renegotiate with their star right-hander, there has been nothing, zero, zip, zilch, nada, to even remotely suggest that Zack Greinke is going anywhere. In fact, in an effort to dispel these ridiculous rumors, veteran and highly respected ESPN writer Jerry Crasnick tweeted this on Thursday:
It’s hard to argue with Crasnick’s logic, not to mention the fact that none of the more reputable media sources have reported anything even hinting that the Dodgers are considering moving Greinke. As such, this might be one Hot Stove rumor that Dodger fans probably ought to ignore.
…at least for now, that is.
Well we won’t have to worry about Kershaw for a few years but Greinke being near his opt-out clause, it is something to think about but I think the Dodgers would be very foolish to trade him right now and it would be better to wait for him to make a decision when the time comes.
Right now though, I think it would be smart to add on someone like Lester, strengthen the team’s chances of going all the way.
Because the market changes every year, players (or their agents) are wise to include an opt-out clause somewhere around the midway point of long-term contracts. This allows them to adjust to the current market value and to capitalize on exceptional performances, which Greinke has done in his two seasons with the Dodgers.
Opt-out clauses generally benefit the player a lot more than the organization and often times seriously hurt the team. The best example of this was the J.D. Drew opt-out clause that left GM Ned Colletti in panic mode and led to the absolutely insane five-year / $44 million signing of Juan Pierre after the 2006 season. Drew’s departure came as a total and unexpected shock to the Dodgers. Even though J.D. was pretty much a lazy and oft-injured malcontent, he was a very good hitter and an above average right fielder. J.D. was a Boras client and when Drew didn’t re-up his contract with the Dodgers, it shut the door on the Dodgers dealing with Boras for a couple years (until the Derek Lowe signing). In contrast, the Dodgers have an outstanding relationship with Casey Close.
The big difference between J.D. Drew and Zack Greinke (in my opinion) is that Zack has given no indication whatsoever that he wants to leave L.A. and given the fact that he is already guaranteed $24M, $23M and $24M in ’16, ’17 and ’18 respectively, he may be content with his current contract – unless he wins the 2015 Cy Young award, that is. If he does, he is REALLY gonna get paid.
I think most knowledgeable fans were aware of the opt-out clause. It’s just that most people, me included, probably didn’t expect Greinke to put up numbers like this. The man is about to get paid!