Fans who enjoy following Dodgers records and milestones took a huge hit on Thursday morning when Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp was traded to the San Diego Padres. After nine seasons in a Dodger uniform, Kemp’s departure from Los Angeles brought an abrupt end to his shot at breaking a record that every Dodger fan was hoping to witness.

Kemp leaves L.A. with 182 career home runs as a Dodger – fourth-most in Los Angeles Dodgers history behind only Eric Karros (270), Ron Cey (228) and Steve Garvey (211). And while Karros’s L.A. record falls considerably short of the all-time Dodgers franchise record of 389 home runs held by Hall of Famer Duke Snider, it now appears that Karros’s L.A. Dodger record will remain intact – perhaps forever.

How so, you ask?

With Kemp no longer a Dodger, 32-year-old outfielder Andre Ethier now becomes the current L.A. Dodgers home run leader with his 145 home runs, 125 behind Karros. Even if Ethier is not traded this off-season (as is anticipated), he would have to average 41.6 home runs in each of the three remaining years of his contract (36.25 per year if the Dodgers picked up his option for 2018) to tie Eric Karros – and that simply isn’t going to happen (hence that ‘perhaps forever’ thing).

When Matt Kemp hit his 182nd career home run on the final day of the 2014 season, no one thought it would be his last regular season home run in a Dodger uniform – absolutely no one.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

It took Karros 12 seasons in a Dodger uniform to collect his L.A. Dodgers milestone, which averages out to 24.5 home runs per season (not counting the 14 games in which he appeared after his September 1 call-up in 1991). During that time he had a season-high of 34 home runs twice (1996 and 1999) and a season low of 12 (2003). During his rookie season Karros hit 20 home runs which helped him win the 1992 National League Rookie of the Year title.

Eric Karros is and quite possibly will always be the Los Angeles Dodgers all-time home run leader. (AP Photo)

As it stand right now, Ethier is currently 11th on the L.A. Dodgers home run list and 15th in franchise history (Karros is third in franchise history and Kemp eighth). The next closest current Dodger is Adrian Gonzalez with 52 home runs as a Dodger, ranking him 38th in L.A. history and 52nd in franchise history – but more importantly, a distant 218 home runs behind Karros. AGon has four years remaining on his current contract which will take him to age 36 and means that he would have to average 54.5 home runs in each of the next four seasons to tie Karros – even more impossibly than Ethier’s numbers.

Ironically, the next current Dodger on the L.A. home run list is none other than Yasiel Puig with his 35 home runs, which ranks 60th on the L.A. list and 87th in franchise history. Puig also has four years remaining on his current contract however he has an opt-out clause after three years of MLB service time, which he will have midway through the 2016 season. Should Puig continue on his current projected 162-game average of 23 home runs per year (according to Baseball-Reference.com), he would have to remain a Dodger for 10.21 more years to catch Karros. After Puig there are only three current Dodgers with 20 or more home runs as a L.A. Dodger: A.J. Ellis with 28, Juan Uribe with 27 and Scott Van Slyke with 20.

If minor league numbers are any indication of candidates who might have a shot at breaking Karros’s record, it is impossible to exclude three guys: Joc Pederson, who hit 84 home runs in five minor league seasons and who is expected to begin his rookie season with the Dodgers in 2015; Scott Schebler, who has hit 74 home runs in five minor league season; and Corey Seager, who has hit 44 home runs in his three minor league seasons. When looking at these three possibles, the biggest factor is not necessarily the number of minor league round-trippers but rather their ages. Pederson will be 23 on April 21, Schebler turned 24 this past October 6 and Seager will be 21 on April 27.

Because of his young age, Joc Pederson perhaps has the best chance of anyone to catch Karros, but in order to do so he will have to remain a Dodger for 10 years or more – and that is very unlikely in this day and age. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Realistically, Puig should easily exceed the projected 162-game average of 23 home runs per year, as Baseball-Reference based their projection on only a season and a half in the big leagues. But in an era where it is now extremely rare for a player to remain with one team for 10 years, let alone their entire career, there is a chance, a very good one in fact, that Karros’s 270 home runs as a Los Angeles Dodger may never be broken – at least not any time soon.