It happens every year around this time – the seemingly endless Andre Ethier Trade rumors. But not only has it not happened, it has not happened for each of Ethier’s nine MLB seasons with the Dodgers.

As the senior member of the so-called ‘overcrowded Dodgers outfield,’ something that former Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti often said was “a good problem to have,” Ethier has seen more teammate outfielders come and go in his nine seasons than most outfielders see in a career. In fact, the 32-year-old Phoenix, Arizona native has seen 37 fellow outfielders come and 33 of them go (not counting the current 2015 roster) since making his MLB debut on May 2, 2006 – most recently his longtime teammate Matt Kemp, who was traded to the San Diego Padres last week.

Ethier’s .249 batting average in 2014 was a career low for the two-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Although Ethier has amassed an impressive career slash line of .285 / .359 / .462  for an above average career OPS of .821 with 145 career home runs and 629 RBIs as a Dodger, he was relegated the the role of a bench player and pinch hitter in the second half of the 2014 season – a season that saw him put up a meager .249 batting average with only four home runs and 42 RBI in 130 games played. And while Ethier has always struggled against left-handers (.235 with 22 career home runs), he was horrible against lefties in 2014 (.222 with zero home runs) causing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly to replace him with right-hander Scott Van Slyke (.315 with eight home runs) whenever the Dodgers faced a left-handed starting pitcher.

In the words of Dodgers manager Don Mattingly: “Scott Van Slyke punishes lefties.”
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

With the Dodgers more than likely penciling in Carl Crawford, Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig as their opening day and everyday outfield in 2015, and with the recent acquisition of 30-year-old Chris Heisey and Van Slyke as the probable utility outfielders, the odds that Ethier actually will be traded this winter are greater than they have ever been before, and for several reasons:

First and foremost, Ethier is not only the longest tenured outfielder on the team, he is also the second oldest to only Carl Crawford, who is 33 years old (eight months older than Andre). However, Crawford finished the 2014 season with a far better slash line than Ethier at .300 / .339 / .429 for a .767 OPS with eight home runs and 46 RBIs.

The second reason why Ethier is a likely trade candidate this winter is because of the $53.5 million owed to him through the 2017 season with a $17.5 million club option (or $2.5 million buyout) for 2018. And even though the Dodgers are still on the hook for $62.25 million for Crawford through the 2017 season, the elder Crawford was simply better than Ethier – especially against left-handers (.321 with two home runs and 13 RBIs). Crawford also stole 23 bases in 2014 compared to Ethier’s two. And although the Dodgers may be willing to eat some of Ethier’s salary to move him, there is no way that they will eat all of it, regardless of how poorly he played in 2014.

Not only did Crawford hit nearly 100 points higher against lefties than Ethier (.321 to .222), he also stole 21 more bases (23 to 2). (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

The third and by far the most compelling reason why the Dodgers might actually trade Ethier this winter is because he has been outspoken about wanting to play everyday rather than being a bench player – and rightfully so.

“It was fun trying to win the way we did last year, but it didn’t prove any more successful than me playing every day or not playing every day,” Ethier told L.A. Times Dodgers beat reporter Steve Dilbeck during a recent interview. “I’d rather play every day and help this team win – or whatever team it is – to the best of my ability. I feel I can, if given a role. As I stand here today, I’m preparing every day to be a starting outfielder for the Dodgers until I’m told otherwise. I’m not changing my mind about that. It’s probably going to be a little less wanting to take the same role as I did last year.”

Much to his credit (and to the pleasure and appreciation of Dodgers manager Don Mattingly), Ethier was a great team player in the 2014 stretch run. He never complained about his reduced role and, in fact, said on a number occasions that he was willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win. That being said, he also told Dilbeck that he doesn’t want to be in that role again in 2015. Is he to the ‘play-me-or-trade-me point yet?

“I’m not there saying that yet because there’s still a lot of things to hash out and get going with this team,” Ethier said. “It’s one where I said through my agent, I want to play every day, and that’s what I’m expecting to do this year. It’s their decision to make from there what they want to do with that.”

When you put all of these things together an Ethier trade seems very likely, although it probably won’t happen before the New Year. But it’s relatively safe to say that if it happens, it will probably happen shortly thereafter – especially with the way that Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi have been doing business this off-season.

Stay tuned…

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Since his debut on May 2, 2006, Andre Ethier has played in the Dodgers outfield with:

• Marlon Anderson
• Jose Cruz Jr.
• J.D. Drew
• Matt Kemp
• Ricky Ledée
• Kenny Lofton
• Jason Repko
• Cody Ross
• Delwyn Young
• Brady Clark
• Luis Gonzalez
• Juan Pierre
• Andruw Jones
• Manny Ramirez
• Terry Tiffee
• Jamie Hoffmann
• Mitch Jones
• Xavier Paul
• Garret Anderson
• Jay Gibbons
• Reed Johnson
• Trent Oeltjen
• Scott Podsednik
• Tony Gwynn Jr.
• Juan Rivera
• Jerry Sands
• Marcus Thames
• Bobby Abreu
• Alex Castellanos
• Scott Van Slyke*
• Shane Victorino
• Nick Buss
• Carl Crawford*
• Yasiel Puig*
• Mike Baxter*
• Roger Bernadina
• Joc Pederson*

* Still with Dodgers