On Tuesday, former Dodger great Eric Karros celebrated his 47th birthday. Karros, as you know, is the Los Angeles Dodgers all-time home run leader with 270 round-trippers – an average of 22.5 per season. Karros spent 12 seasons with the Dodgers and then one each with the Chicago Cubs and Oakland A’s before retiring in 2004 at the age of 36.

Eric Karros is still a huge fan favorite among Dodger fans. He and his sons Jared and Kyle are often see around Camelback Ranch during spring training.
(Photo credit – Blaine Ohigash)

On September 23, 2014, Dodgers right fielder Matt Kemp celebrated his 30th birthday. Through his nine seasons in the big leagues (all with the Dodgers), Kemp has 182 home runs – an average of 20.2 per season.

In order for Kemp to catch Karros on the L.A. Dodgers all-time home run list, Kemp will have to average 17.6 home runs over the next five seasons – certainly very do-able, especially with the way that Kemp finished the second half of the 2014 season when he slugged 17 of his 25 home runs.

Kemp’s second half flurry is certainly no coincidence. He is clearly (and finally) 100% healthy and he worked extensively with hitting coach Mark McGwire and assistant hitting coach John Valintin, who changed Matt’s batting stance and position within the batters box – and the results were phenomenal.

Matt Kemp’s dramatic game-winning home run in the 8th inning of Game-2 of the NLDS ranks right up there among the greatest Dodger home runs of all time. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

On November 18, 2011 Kemp signed a record-setting eight-year / $160 million contract extension under the McCourt Dodgers. At the time it was the largest contract in the National League and the seventh largest in baseball history. While many considered the contract ludicrous, Dodger fans were elated that the Dodgers had locked down the extremely popular (then) 27-year-old Midwest City, Oklahoma native to a long term contract extension.

Kemp had just come off of an incredible 2011 season in which he fell one home run shy of going 40-40. He would later be snubbed by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) for the 2011 NL MVP title when they instead selected admitted PED user Ryan Braun – this is spite of Kemp’s far superior numbers across the board. Supposedly the BBWAA felt that because the Dodgers did not make the playoffs in 2011 and the Brewers did, Kemp was unworthy of the award even though this isn’t written anywhere in the MVP voting criteria.

Kemp will begin the 2015 season as a 30-year-old with five years remaining on his contract and 88 home runs behind Karros. The question is not whether Kemp can catch and surpass Karros’s all-time L.A. Dodgers home run record, the question is will Kemp still be a Dodger in 2019? In all probability he will not; not with guys names Joc Pederson and Scott Schebler lurking in the high minors and a guy named Andrew Friedman in charge of such decisions. The 37-year-old President of Baseball Operations has already gone on record expressing his plans for the Dodgers to ‘get younger’ and plans to have a ‘more robust’ minor league system.

That being said, if Matt Kemp can up his home run production to a 30 per season average over the next three seasons, he could catch and pass Karros towards the end of the 2017 season. And if Kemp is still wearing Dodger Blue in 2018, he could catch and pass Karros with a 22 per season average – a far more realistic target.

Regardless, Kemp’s race to catch Karros is definitely going to be close. Unfortunately, it may come down to his contract rather than his ability – and that sucks.