The 2015 baseball season has already started in this household. I know the 2014 season is technically not over as the World Series is front and center on the baseball stage. However, as a long suffering Dodger fan – at least since 1988 – for me a new season has begun. It began in a rather unexpected but spectacular fashion with the hiring of Andrew Friedman as the Dodgers President of Baseball Operations. Somehow the Dodgers lured him away from the Tampa Bay Rays where he had been Executive Vice- president of Baseball Operations for nine years. Friedman will turn 38 in November and is ushering in a new era of optimism in the Dodger sphere.

Friedman now has access to a greatly expanded payroll but also inherits an active roster that does have significant gaps in it. His challenges are not minor in nature and include an ineffective relief corps, an outfield that is overly populated with big contracts, a need for a starting pitcher and an expanded bench. Decisions must also be made regarding resigning shortstop Hanley Ramirez and arbitration eligible catcher A.J. Ellis or pursuing free agent catcher Russell Martin.

A.J. Ellis was 7 for 13 (.538) with a double and a home run in the NLDS. Unfortunately the rest of the team hit a combined .258. (Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)

For me working from the bottom up I don’t think that Friedman has to pursue Russell Martin. He is easily at the top of the present group of free agent catchers, perhaps the only one that could be considered as an every day catcher. But do the Dodgers really need him and another five year seventy-five million dollar contract which Martin may well demand and get? Martin would be 37 when that contract expires. Surely before then a young Dodger catcher would have graduated from the minor league system as part of Friedman’s youth movement.

In the interim the Dodgers have a big league catcher, the aforementioned A. J. Ellis. Ellis in my opinion could easily be the Dodger captain if such a role still existed. He loves being a Dodger, is respected by his teammates, is well groomed on the field and wears his uniform with pride. However, it will take more than these personnel characteristics to make Ellis a candidate for the Dodgers to name him the starting catcher for 2015.

Admittedly Ellis had a very forgettable year at the plate in 2014 while Russell Martin had an impressive year offensively. Therein lies the conundrum. Did Ellis just have a bad year and was Russell Martin’s year the real deal? A look back at the 2012 and 2013 seasons reveals that there was little to choose between the two at the plate over those two years although a case certainly can be made that Ellis posted better overall numbers.

There is no question that the downward trend by Ellis offensively is a concern just as the slide by Russell Martin from 2009 (.280) until 2013 (.226) was a concern. Martin bottomed out at .211 in 2012. That brings us back to the conundrum for Andrew Friedman. Was 2014 just a bad year for A.J. Ellis and a contract year for Russell Martin?

Juan Uribe had two humiliating years in 2011 and 2012 after signing a lucrative three year contract with the Dodgers. He bounced back at age 34 and 35 to have two very good seasons at third base and is, in fact, a Gold Glove candidate. I would have to question why the Dodgers would not offer A.J. Ellis the same consideration as they did with Juan Uribe and why his slide would be seen as more serious than Russell Martin’s.

I wonder if Dodger fans realize that A.J. Ellis has a career caught stealing percentage of 33% comparable to Russell Martin’s 32%. I wonder if they remember that in 2013 Ellis had the best caught stealing percentage in MLB at .444% and he also had the best catcher’s Earned Run Average (cERA) in MLB at 3.06. Ellis has a career fielding percentage of .996 while Martin’s is .992.

I certainly can’t explain why A.J. Ellis had such a disastrous year in 2014 just as I don’t know why Russell Martin had a career year. I do know the Dodgers have not often had a good experience by signing players on the basis of one good year or even part of a year. George Sherrill, Matt Guerrier, Brandon League and Brian Wilson come to mind. I can speculate that Ellis never recovered from his injuries until the playoffs. On May 14 he had arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. No sooner had he returned than he stepped on Drew Butera’s mask during a post game celebration and severely sprained his ankle. His injuries limited him to 93 games in 2014.

In the NLDS A.J. Ellis played like Russell Martin. Actually he hit better than any player in that series with a batting average of .538 and an OBP of .647. In his career Ellis has a postseason batting average of .386 and an OBP of .481 in 44 at bats. Martin has a considerably larger sample with 136 at bats in which he hit .213 with an OBP of .323.

I believe Russell Martin would look past his contract issues with the Dodgers if he was to be approached by Friedman. Martin refused the Dodgers $4 offer in 2011 after two years of free fall and the Dodgers responded by non-tendering him. He realizes it was a business decision. I also realize I am submitting a minority report in suggesting that the Dodgers do not need Russell Martin and do not need to look beyond A. J. Ellis for their 2015 catcher. There is no reason to believe that once healthy he cannot bounce back.

Even during his injury time A.J. Ellis was at work. According to Josh Beckett the best thing to happen to him in a long time was Ellis tearing the meniscus in his left knee. During the down time Ellis had after his surgery, he put together a packet of information to show the struggling Beckett what he was doing wrong. It centered around using his curveball. Beckett had a 1.67 ERA in six starts following the Ellis presentation with opponents hitting .111 along with a .333 OPS on the 204 curves he threw. Unfortunately another injury ended Beckett’s MLB career.

Perhaps I’m not a lone wolf in wanting the Dodgers to sign A.J. Ellis before any arbitration talks. Shortly after the season ended for the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw talked about the possibility of not having Ellis as his battery mate. As he started talking about that possibility his voice cracked. “I don’t know what I’m going to do if he’s not back,” Kershaw said.

We have no way of knowing how events will unfold. That’s part of the fun during the off season. There can be little doubt that money will do the talking for Russell Martin. However, I expect the Pirates to do all they can to sign him and Martin might offer a hometown discount. Just moments after the Pirates’ season ended in a one-game playoff, he noted that he “…had more fun playing baseball here [Pittsburgh] than I have my whole career.”

Who will be the Dodgers starting catcher on Monday, April 6 when Clayton Kershaw throws his first pitch of the 2015 season? Will it be Martin? Will it be Ellis?