August 18th, 2014 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game today – you know it, I know it, baseball experts and analysts know it, everybody knows it. But if the 2014 National League Cy Young award voting were to be held today, right now, on Monday, August 18, 2014, Clayton Kershaw, arguably the greatest left-hander since Sandy Koufax, most likely would not win the 2014 NL Cy Young award. The award would probably go to Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto.
Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto is and will probably remain Kershaw’s strongest competition for the 2014 NL Cy Young award. (Photo credit – Andy Lyons)
How is this possible. you ask? The answer to that is actually quite simple and it is in black and white – cold, hard statistics.
As we all know, the Cy Young awards are voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), the same folks who determine each leagues Most Valuable Player and, more importantly, who goes into the National Baseball Hall of Fame every year (stay for 2013). And while BBWAA members are like Supreme Court Justices in that once they are members they are members for life, many of them discontinue covering baseball at some point during their journalism careers, yet they are still permitted to vote on baseball’s highest awards. Now granted, most of those who no longer cover the game respectfully (and rightfully) remove themselves from voting, but not all of them do. But regardless of this, nearly every BBWAA voting member utilizes MLB’s statistics to determine who wins baseball’s highest awards and achievements – including the NL and AL Cy Young award winners.
Although Kershaw currently leads the National League (and all of baseball for that matter) in Earned Run Average with his incredible 1.86 ERA, he trails Cueto in two of the other big three categories – Wins and Strikeouts. As of Sunday night, Cueto, whose 2.06 ERA is second in the NL to only Kershaw, has a record of 15-6 compared to Kershaw’s 14-3. In fact, Kershaw is actually also behind Brewer’s right-hander Wily Peralta (who beat the Dodgers on Sunday) and Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright who are tied at 15-7. As for the other pitching Triple Crown category, Strikeouts, Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg leads the NL with 194, with Cueto second at 187 and Kershaw third at 174.
As for some of the other important pitching categories that BBWAA members will probably take into consideration (at least the should) when voting for the respective Cy Young award winners, Kershaw has the edge over Cueto. Some of the more significant of these non-Triple Crown categories (for lack of a better term) are Walks Plus Hits Per Inning (WHIP), Batting Average Allowed (BAA), Strikeouts Per Walk (K/BB) and Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9). Kershaw’s WHIP is an alien-like 0.84 [first] and Cueto’s 0.91 [second]. Cueto is ahead of Kershaw in BAA at .183 [first] to .198 [second] but Kershaw is way ahead of Cueto in K/BB at 9.16 [first] to 3.83 [eighth] and K/9 at 10.78 [first] to 8.97 [fifth]. Kershaw also leads all of baseball with his six complete games compared to Cueto’s four [second].
So how, then, is Kershaw not the favorite to win the 2014 NL Cy Young award? The answer is, again, quite simple. History has shown us time and time again that Wins tend to trump every other category even though it is the single-most subjective category. Why the BBWAA is so enamored with Wins is, without question, one of life’s greatest mysteries. When a pitcher can keep his opponent to under two runs per nine innings pitched he is a national hero. But if his teammates cannot provide him with enough run support to earn the win, he quickly falls from grace in the eyes of the BBWAA.
Wins have absolutely nothing to do with a pitchers ability and everything to do with the rest of the team’s ability or inability to score runs. Wins should be a team category not a pitching category; and if Wins were removed from the pitching Triple Crown equation, Kershaw quickly becomes the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award and, quite frankly, should be working on his fourth consecutive Cy Young award instead of his second in a row and third in four years. Earned Run Average, Strikeouts, WHIP, K/BB and K/9 are far better indicators of how good a pitcher is, not Wins.
In 2012 Kershaw had the lowest ERA (2.53), the lowest WHIP (1.023) and one fewer strikeout that R.A. Dickey (230 to 229), yet because Dickey was 20-6 and Kershaw 14-9, the BBWAA felt that Dickey was more deserving of the Cy Young than Kershaw. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Now that your blood is stirring there is one enormous factor still in play here, one that will absolutely begin to bring the actual Cy Young award race into focus – Clayton Kershaw still has seven starts remaining between now and the end of the regular season, as does (I assume) Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Stephen Strasburg and Wily Peralta. In other words, the 2014 NL Cy Young award race is still far from over. That being said and excluding Strasburg’s current Strikeouts lead (which will probably change between now and the end of the season), it is probably safe to say that it is a three-horse race between Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright.
If Dodgers manager Don Mattingly does not alter his current five-man rotation schedule in any way and uses the six upcoming off days as an extra day of rest for his entire pitching staff, Kershaw most likely will start on:
Friday, August 22 vs. NYM
Friday, August 30 @ SD
Friday, September 5 vs. AZ
Wednesday, September 10 vs. SD
Tuesday, September 16 @ COL
Sunday, September @ CHC
Saturday, September 27 vs. COL
Realistically, I find it difficult to believe that with so many off days coming up, including two in four days (August 25 and August 28), that Mattingly will not move Kershaw and Greinke up a day somewhere along the line – especially if the Dodgers begin to slip in the NL West standings. If Mattingly does so, the above projected schedule goes out the window, but only by a day or two. And unless Mattingly has Kershaw go on less than four days rest during the stretch run (which is highly unlikely), Kershaw will still make seven more starts even if he goes every fifth day regardless of the off days, which could happen if the back of the rotation struggles in the next couple of weeks.
There is one thing that you can absolutely take to the bank with Kershaw, well, two actually – 1) Clayton Kershaw will take the ball whenever he is asked and will absolutely give his all; 2) Clayton Kershaw could care less about the Cy Young award.
For Clayton Kershaw it’s all about the ring – period.
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Good point about wins as a measure of a pitcher’s seasonal performance.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that a “W” is a team stat, not a pitcher stat, as is a “L”.
Pitchers get wins often by facing very few batters, sometimes just one or even throwing just one pitch. We all know about vulture wins where a reliever gives up runs denying a starter with a great start the “W”. The reliever then gets a “W” when the team scores the run or runs giving them the lead after his outing.
It’s a tradition thing where wins are seen to be a measure of a pitcher’s season. Pitchers are paid according to how many wins they have accumulated before signing a contract or contract extension. They may well be a determining factor in HOF votes for starting pitchers. It would be very difficult to get the BBWAA to abandon wins as a pitchers stat in their votes for the Cy Young Award. It would be very difficult also to get them to abandon a subjective approach and go to a points system for the various significant pitching categories as outlined in your article.
Go Clayton – keep on chucking and make it impossible to vote for anyone
but CK.
The most important thing is how the Dodgers do. We’ve waited 26 years for the Dodgers to appear in a World Series much less win one. Recently we’ve come some two games from making it. Sometimes it seems like there’s more pressure on Kershaw to succeed than there is on the Dodgers.