By every indication we may well have already seen the last 300-game winner in baseball history when Randy Johnson retired from the game on January 5, 2010 with 303 career wins. It took The Big Unit, as Johnson was affectionately called, 22 major league seasons to achieve one of baseball’s most coveted pitching milestones – one that is shared by only 24 pitchers in the 145-year history of the game.

Randy Johnson tips his hat to a standing ovation at Nationals Park in Washington DC after collecting his 300th career win on June 4, 2009. Johnson would finish his career with 303 wins and will most likely be a first ballot Hall of Famer this December. (Photo credit – Greg Fiume)

It also took Johnson 603 career starts (618 total games) to reach his 303 career wins. That averages out to 27.4 starts per season but more importantly to 13.77 wins per season for 22 seasons. Johnson made his major league debut on September 15, 1988 just five days after his 25th birthday and recorded his 303rd and final career win on June 30, 2009 at age 46.

Enter Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw, who turned 26 on March 19, already has 88 wins in the books in seven major league season thus far in his career. This represents 29.33% of 300 wins.

Since making his MLB debut on May 25, 2008, Kershaw has made 197 career starts (199 total games) and, as noted, has 88 career wins. This averages out to 28.14 starts per season but more importantly 12.57 wins per season, with (probably) 12 starts remaining in 2014. At 12.57 average wins per season (which will probably go up this season, but only slightly), it will take Kershaw a total of (approximately) 23.86 seasons to reach 300 wins, which will make him (approximately) 43 years old. Keep in mind that he already has seven of these seasons in the books.

Although Kershaw has 88 career wins through his first seven seasons in the major leagues, he still has 212 wins to go to reach 300. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Please understand that these numbers are based on 28.14 starts per season at 12.57 wins per season – both of which could go up or down depending on Kershaw’s health and success over a very long career.

Should Kershaw make it to 300 wins, and it is way too premature to make this prediction, he would become only the 25th player in baseball history to do so. He would also become only the 7th left-hander to do so, joining Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, Eddie Plank, Tom Glavine, and Lefty Grove.

Although Kershaw is still 212 wins shy of 300 (which really puts all of this into perspective), there are two active players with more than 200 career wins – 39-year-old Giants right-hander Tim Hudson with 213 career wins and 34-year-old Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia with 208 career wins.

While Hudson’s age makes it highly unlikely that he will reach 300 wins, Sabathia could make it if he could remain healthy – an iffy proposition when you consider that he is currently out for the season after undergoing knee surgery. His velocity has also diminished significantly over the past two seasons – a bad thing for a guy who is considered a power arm. There have also been rumors that Sabathia may retire as early as next season but there has been no official word on this from Sabathia or the Yankees.

Without questions Kershaw’s age makes him the most likely candidate with a legitimate shot to make it to 300 wins, but he has a very very long way to go to get there. And although it is a lot of fun to think about and to play with the numbers, perhaps we sould revisit this topic in… say… 23 years from now.