January 13th, 2014 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Clayton Kershaw will be a Dodger for the 2014 season – that is a given. He is arbitration eligible with arbitration figures due to be exchanged beginning this Friday. If a contract extension cannot be agreed upon before January 31 and the defending NL Cy Young Award winner is forced into an arbitration hearing (which run from February 1 through February 21), the Dodgers are, well, screwed.
Why?
Because regardless of what salary the arbitrator decides on, and it will be sizable, it will still fall well short of Kershaw’s actual value as the best pitcher in the game right now.
We all know that Kershaw is a class act and wise well beyond his years. We also know that if he is forced to accept arbitration he will still go out there every fifth day and give 110% without a single complaint. But how can he possibly not be upset that the Dodgers would not give him a contract extension and, more importantly, why would he not choose to test free agency at the conclusion of the 2014 season because of it? The answer to that is simple – he will; unless, of course, the Dodgers lock him down with a long-term contract extension before arbitration hearings begin on February 1.
The Dodgers without Kershaw would be like the Dodgers without Koufax.
(Photo credit – Dodgers.com)
Although there is much speculation and plenty of rumors flying around about Kershaw’s future with the Dodgers, the painful truth is that there (apparently) aren’t any serious negotiations going on right now between Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti and Casey Close, Kershaw’s agent. In fact, when asked pointblank at Wednesday’s media conference at Dodger Stadium if there were any negotiations going on right now in that regard, Colletti not only didn’t answer the question but he gave a rather smug reply to it.
“Right now? Right now I’m talking to you.”
After accepting his courtesy laughs from the gathered media, Colletti gave a typical Ned Colletti answer.
“We’ve had conversations, that’s all I’m going to tell you. We’re not going to make it more than that right now. We’ve had a lot of conversation.”
And so the drama continues.
In addition to Kershaw, Casey Close is also the agent for some of the biggest names in baseball. And while Scott Boras may draw most of the headlines and all of the ‘loud money’ talk, Close quietly represents (or represented) guys like Ryan Howard, Zack Greinke, Derrek Lee, Ben Sheets, Michael Cuddyer, Eric Milton, Kenny Lofton, Richie Sexson and some guy named Derek Jeter. Ironically, his newest client is Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka, who will name his sweepstakes winner on (or before) January 24.
What’s even more ironic is that Close, Tanaka and Kershaw will ultimately determine the future of the Dodgers starting rotation.
Early Friday afternoon USA Today sports columnist Bob Nightengale reported on Twitter that the Dodgers “…plan to go all-out in efforts to sign Tanaka, saying they certainly won’t be out-bid.” With speculation that Tanaka could possibly sign for upwards of $110 million (not including the $20 million posting fee), it seems unlikely that the Dodgers would be willing to do that and sign Kershaw to what some believe will be a seven to ten-year/$250 to $300 million deal.
Whatever happens, it most likely will happen within days of the Tanaka decision. And while it would be absolutely incredible to have both Tanaka and Kershaw in the Dodgers starting rotation, is seems a bit of a reach. But then again… Guggenheim Baseball Management group does have an incredible amount of money.
Stay tuned…
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@Think_BlueLA I’m scared to read this but I must.
Panic time is when spring training begins and a contract extension has not been reached. If this happens, Kershaw will most likely refuse to negotiate during the season and he will undoubtedly want to test the free agent market.
Get it done now, Ned.
I am not panicking, not even overly concerned about Clayton remaining a Dodger for many years. He is the face of the Dodgers, no longer Matt Kemp, and the GBM group would be akin to News Corp. to let him walk or worse still, cause him to.
Anyone in the Dodger organization with any commonsense knows letting him go simply isn’t an option. It would be absurd, especially if the team has money. It would fly in the face of a youth movement, winning, having happy fans and keeping that way.
Ned can’t say much now and why would he? I expect things are more serious than he lets on. It seems they might be waiting on Tanaka before closing with Clayton. My opinion is that would be bass ackwards as they say. The team is better with Clayton and not Tanaka than it is with Tanaka and not Clayton, again in my opinion.
The Dodgers will not be financially prudent until about 2017/18 so adding to the load now doesn’t make much difference.
On the other side of the coin, if Clayton is not happy with the Dodgers and wants to go to Texas or else where, then I am not aware of that. If so I would be then be disappointed in him and not management for letting him go. I do think the ball is in the Dodgers court. Do it or get off the pot.
I never like these things coming down to the wire and don’t think they have to as they did with Zach Lee. Each side tries to gain some advantage in negotiations by dragging things out. Again, to me that is poor business practice.
Who are you trying to convince of this, Harold? You repeatedly say this but there is no indication whatsoever to even remotely suggest that it will play out as you wish and hope – especially with Tanaka in the picture. In fact, with each passing day and with pitchers and catchers due to report in less than a month, the risk of Kershaw choosing to refuse to negotiate once spring training begins becomes greater and greater – and if that happens, he will test the free agency market when the season ends.
I’m not trying to convince anyone. Every statement is not made trying to convince others. It isn’t a wish or hope and I would appreciate it not to be classified as such. It’s an expectation (my opinion)and a suggestion that management would be hopelessly dumb to let this happen. I don’t think they are that dumb. If so I will be burning my Stan Kasten, Mark Walter, Ned Colletti autographs if Clayton is not a Dodger in 2015.
Further to that, Clayton remaining a Dodger for many years means he will not walk as a free agent if not extended. He will sign with the Dodgers, especially after a WS run.
Just to clarify – for me – a hope and dream is that down the road 4/5 years a number of young Dodgers will occupy spots on the 25 man roster.
It sounds to me as though you are trying to convince yourself of it, Harold, which was my point.
I am not challenging your opinion, I am merely trying to figure out what you are basing it on – other than saying that it would be dumb. We all know that it would be dumb for GBM not to re-sign Clayton, but if the Dodgers are in play on Tanaka, as they’ve said they are, and if Kershaw (and Casey Close) do not sit down and get this done before spring training, it will go to an arbitration hearing which if a lose-lose situation for everyone.
And do you honestly believe that Clayton would come back to the Dodgers as a free agent even if they win the World Series if another team (say… like… the Rangers) offers him a better deal? That, my friend, is wishing and hoping.
It’s all about the money.
Can’t say it any more clearly. Clayton is in the best interests of the team, it’s greatest asset, and this management group does what it thinks is in the best interest of the team – or at least I thought so. My reason is simply that GBM won’t take steps backwards now and they would be doing so by not keeping Clayton. To me that doesn’t make any sense. That’s what I’m basing it on.
I know it’s about $$$$$ and indicated when they bought the Red Sox a WS that the contracts they took on would be strangling. However, not signing Clayton is suicidal, regardless of the poor optics of a luxury tax. They are businessmen and now they have to spend money wisely to make money.
I think you missed my points in my initial post. It was more than just being a dumb move.
I wrote ” It would fly in the face of a youth movement, winning, having happy fans and keeping that way.”
That’s how I define the new ownership, if we can still call them new. I see their goals as:
Getting younger with homegrown products. Clayton is both young and
homegrown.
Winning – what pitcher gives them the nest chance to win?
Creating happy fans and keeping them happy. Clayton does that.
Letting Clayton go is simply contrary to their franchise goals, as I see them. It is about money, but money well spent to help achieve their goals.
That does indeed explain it much better, Harold, and I apologize for being a little slow in seeing your argument.
As always, I thoroughly enjoy debating with you and always appreciate and respect your points of view and opinions – even if some may see it as something else.
Colletti’s recent signings of Chris Perez and especially Jamey Wright have totally confused me on Stan Kasten’s so-called ‘Phase II’. This goes against the entire ‘getting younger’ thing and puts Chris Withrow, Jose Dominguez and Onelki Garcia at risk of starting the 2014 season in Albuquerque or even Chattanooga, which seems WAY backwards to me and tends to support that ‘dumb’ thing.
I am so confused (and disappointed) that this Kershaw thing has dragged on as long as it has – this damn contract extension should have occurred three years ago for crying out loud; you know… when they probably could have signed him to a 6 or 7-year deal in the $125 to $150 million range.
The point to this entire article (and subsequent debate) is that the longer this thing drags out, the worse the chances are for re-signing Clayton – especially with Tanaka still in play.
Thank you again for a great and spirited debate.
@Think_BlueLA If they don’t agree to a deal, I think he might take less money and sign with the Rangers.
Ummm Casey Close seems like someone very important in the Dodgers very near future.
@FeelinKindaBlue I don’t see a Kershaw extension before the Tanaka decision comes down. This could get uncomfortable: http://t.co/k6fZH8co8P
@Think_BlueLA Agree on the first part, not so much on the second. I’m less concerned than others.
@FeelinKindaBlue @Think_BlueLA The sky is falling, the sky is falling! I’m not concerned about any of this. Dodgers’ll sign both men.