Ask yourself this Dodger fans: As of this morning who is the most important member on the Dodgers National League Championship Series roster? Is it Puig, Kershaw, Greinke, Ramirez, Gonzalez, or new fan favorite Uribear?

No. Meet your most important Dodger: J.P. Howell.

J.P. Howell finished the regular season with an ERA of 2.03 – third among all Dodger relievers behind only newcomer Brian Wilson (0.66) and closer Kenley Jansen (1.88). Howell’s role as the only lefty in the Dodgers bullpen for the NLCS will be huge.
(Photo credit – Victor Decolongon)

The ground shook in the twittersphere this morning when the Dodger roster changes for the NLCS were announced – without lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Capuano. Rodriguez appears to have simply run out of gas in his first long season as a Dodger, putting up poor numbers in his last month of the season and playoffs. Although many speculate that Capuano may be still hurt in some way, his exclusion probably had more to do with his struggles against the Cardinals this year so his lefty match-up advantage may not have been that persuasive to Mattingly and company. In the end, Capuano and Rodriguez were replaced by Carlos Marmol and Edison Volquez, both right-handers.

These developments are important when you consider that the Cardinals were one of the best teams against righties batting .278 (ironically behind only Boston and Detroit) and one of the worst against lefties batting .235 ahead of only the Cubs and the Marlins.

Most of the comments this morning on the web were focused on the uncertain nature of “Carlos Danger” and the mediocre performance in the past month from Volquez. Quite frankly, if the Dodgers are dependent on either Marmol or Volquez to save the day, civilization has already collapsed, we are bleeding from the aorta, and things are bad… real bad. The real key to this series is going to fall into the hands of an unsung hero. If the Dodgers win this series, my vote is already in for our solitary lefty in the bullpen and series MVP: J.P. Howell.

This is not to say that J.P. Howell hasn’t been important already. Arguably he has been one of most effective relievers in the bullpen and a very stable gateway presence delivering a contested game to the setup man in the 8th. But that was also when the Dodgers had other lefty arms in the bullpen. I have to think that he will be used frequently in this series to get out of jams when the match-up dictates. How often, when, and for how long Mattingly uses Howell in this series is of utmost importance. Once he is used, he is used and there will be no more lefty magic from the pen.

It is a given that he is going to be used against left-handers. He has sparkled against them to a tune of a 1.95 ERA, .164 opponent batting average, with one home run, 36 Ks, and 9 BBs in 32 innings in 2013. Against righties he didn’t fare much worse with a 2.12 ERA, .222 opponent batting average with one home run, 18 Ks, and 14 B in 29.2 innings. Specifically against the Cardinals, he has been superb (obviously in a limited sample size) with 3 innings in two games in Dodger Stadium allowing no hits, no runs, 1 BBs and 3 Ks. In Busch Stadium, he pitched equally as well in 1.1 innings in 1 game with no hits, no walks and a strikeout with no runs allowed.

In his career against the Cardinals (which is limited since he spent most of his career with the Rays) J.P. Howell has been nothing short of great with a team batting average of .167. The only Cardinal who has had success against him is Carlos Beltran who had two singles in two at bats. The only other Cardinal to achieve a hit is Matt Holliday with one single.

So, why is Howell going to be my MVP if the Dodgers win? Because he is going to be used in every mid-game sticky situation with a chance to win against any batter not named Beltran. I guarantee it. He will not be used as a LOOGY specialist (Lefty One Out GuY) as he hasn’t been used that way this year anyway, pitching almost as much against righties as against lefties. He will come into the game in the 6th or 7th, pitching with runners on base in moments when it counts the most. It is not glamorous, sexy or eye-catching but it is crucial – especially when you are the only lefty in the pen against a team that hits lefties poorly and smashes righties.

So, J.P., the handwriting is already on the wall. I am sticking this message into the proverbial blog bottle, putting on the cork, and tossing it into the cyber-sea. If the Dodgers win, you will have delivered. If not, well, let’s not think about that right now. Here’s hoping our arm does not fall off!!

#ITFDB