The Dodgers regular season has whittled down to six games remaining. Even after 156 games played, questions remain regarding the Dodgers first round opponent and the dates of their first post-season home games in four years. After reading this post, you might find yourself dizzy, but there are so many potential outcomes that could play out over this final week of regular season play. I seriously thought the dust would be settling by now and some answers would be clear. This wild finish in the Central Division may keep things muddled until game number 162.

As the Cardinals closed out the MLB Sunday action with a 6-4 loss in Milwaukee, the standings for the best N.L. record (which results in having complete home field advantage [HFA]) are as follows:

Atlanta 92-63
St. Louis 91-65
Dodgers 90-66
Cincinnati 89-67
Pittsburgh 89-67

So the Dodgers still could possibly finish with the best record among division winners or the worst record amongst them. The Braves appear to be in a good spot. It’ll take a monumental collapse by them to lose out to the Dodgers for the best record in the National League.

Atlanta

The Braves have seven to play at home in seven days. That will be three against the Brewers and a concluding four game set against the Phillies. Neither opponent has anything to play for except some pride. By winning four of their last seven, the Braves clinch home field advantage over the Dodgers. If they both finish with the same record, the Braves get HFA due to the tie breaker, (which is: the best record in head to head meetings – Braves won season series against Dodgers this year) .

Since taking over for Bobby Cox as the Braves manager in 2011, Fredi González is 274-204. which is an excellent .573 winning percentage. (Photo credit – Kevin C.Cox)

St. Louis
The Cardinals have six to play and they are all at home. Their first three are against Washington, who has a minute statistical chance of making the playoffs through the wildcard, if they win out and Cincinnati or Pittsburgh lose their remaining games. Still, the Nationals playing with all they have is a good thing for Dodger fans, as the Cards will have their hands full for their next three games. After that, they finish with three against the Cubs at home.

To guarantee themselves HFA over the Dodgers, the Cardinals need to go 6-0 because finishing with the same record as L.A. would mean the Dodgers get HFA, as the Dodgers had a winning record against the Cards in head to head games this year.

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati – Tiebreakers Galore

The Pirates and Reds both have their hands full in trying to take the Central Division now. Both teams are two games back of St. Louis with six to play. The Pirates have all road games. The Reds finish their final six at home. Pittsburgh starts things off this week with three at Wrigley against the Cubs. The Reds take on the Mets at Great American Ballpark in a three game set. Then things could get interesting.

Both the Pirates and Reds play each other in the regular season series finale that promises to be real barn burners if both teams remain in contention for the division lead. If they are eliminated from division play, they may be facing an interesting scenario that MLB didn’t envision. That is, two teams going to the one game playoff that will be conserving their regulars for that one game for all the marbles. Additionally, if it appears that both these teams will be wild card representatives, look for them each to save their number one starting ace for that one game and not use him in this final series.

It’ll be a strange occurrence. Both one game playoff bound teams playing scrubs in head to head competition in the game(s) leading up to that one game playoff. Of course, the team with the best record gets home field advantage, so perhaps they will have something to play for until the end. If they end up with identical records as wild card representatives, the Pirates barely have a better head to head record (8-7) over the Reds. That could easily change this weekend.

Then there is the possibility that end up with the same record and an even head to head record against each other. In that event the tie breaker that would detrmine home field advantage is the team with the best record in intra-division games. So far the Pirates are 40-29 against NL Central Opponents. The Reds are 39-33. So the Pirates have the edge in this tie breaker too.

If the Cardinals falter and the Pirates or Reds somehow pass them in the standings, in order for the Pirates to pass the Dodgers for HFA, they’ll need to win all remaining six games and home the Dodgers lose at least two. If they end tied with L.A., the Dodgers win the tie breaker.

On the other hand, for the Reds to pass the Dodgers, they’ll need to win out and the Dodgers would have to lose one game. A tie gives the Reds the tiebreaker, as the Reds won the season series with the Dodgers four games to three.

So bottom line, what would be the best scenario for the Dodgers?

In this writer’s opinion, taking on the wild card might not be the best thing for the Dodgers, especially if that opponent ends up being a hungry Reds team that should have advanced last season. The ideal scenario would probably be one where they have home field advantage against St. Louis or Pittsburgh in the first round. I like their chances against both those clubs because neither has a light’s out closer, unlike Atlanta with Kimbrel and Cincinnati with Chapman.

All four possible post-season opponents are beatable, as Atlanta has some injuries and offensive weaknesses, plus their starters have no post-season experience. The Reds starting pitching isn’t quite of the caliber of the Dodgers and they have some holes at the top and bottom of their lineup.

Deep down, it probably doesn’t matter who they play because all teams are formidable and capable of winning the whole thing. The Dodgers chances are as good as any team going in and the one thing they have going for them is their MLB best road record this season. The Dodgers, who clinched earliest, have had the advantage of setting up their rotation and healing their starters, something that the three remaining teams in contention have been unable to do.