At the risk of turning off all readers that lay credence to the baseball superstition that we don’t talk about post-season baseball until the team qualifies for it, my plan over the next several weeks is to provide a detailed look at the potential post season opponents that the Dodgers may face. Talking about post-season play and the Dodgers chances is on the mind of almost everyone following the team and I see no need to sit back and wait with a 12 game lead and a mere 23 games remaining. Appropriately I’ll start with Cincinnati (78-62) their next opponent for three games at Great American Ballpark.

Located on the banks of the Ohio River, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is known as a hitters ballpark. It will be interesting to see how Puig, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier do in the upcoming series here.
(Photo credit – cookandsonbats.mlblogs.com)

Currently the Reds find themselves in a semi-comfortable position as the final Wild Card representative. They’re 7 games ahead of Washington and 7.5 in front of Arizona for the last post-season slot. The Reds are desperately hoping to avoid having to play a one-game Wild Card playoff game and after losing a crushing 16-inning affair at home to the Cardinals on Wednesday night, they rebounded with a 6-2 win last night and will need to continue playing well to remain in the thick of the NL Central division race. At present, the Reds are three games back of division leading Pittsburgh and 1.5 behind St. Louis. This three game set coming up against the Dodgers is crucial to their division title hopes.

Interestingly, the Dodgers came into Cincinnati last year in September with their playoff hopes barely alive. Trying to catch St. Louis for the final playoff spot, that 77-73 Dodger team was three back of the Cardinals with twelve games to play. In that crucial series for the Dodgers, they took two of three, but the one loss really did a number on their post season hopes. The one loss to the Reds in that series was the division clinching game for the Reds and the Dodgers had the misfortune of having to watch them celebrate before their eyes. The tables have turned substantially this year as now it’s the Reds who are desperate to win this series, while the Dodgers aren’t in that same “must-win” situation.

Earlier this season the Dodgers and Reds met at Chavez Ravine on July 25-28 for a four game series in the midst of L.A’s historic second half run. The Dodgers took three of four from the Reds in some close games that showcased each teams strengths and weaknesses. Below is a summary of that series.

July 25th, Reds 5, Dodgers 2
This was Zack Greinke’s last loss this year. The Reds immediately got off to a quick lead as former Dodger Xavier Paul homered in the first inning. Mat Latos was on his game and an impatient Dodger offense was for some crazy reason first ball swinging all night long.

The Dodgers had just returned home on a red eye flight from Toronto having completed a perfect 6-0 road trip with victories over the Nationals and Blue Jays. They were a weary lot too and their impatience at the plate seemed to indicate that they wanted to end this one fast and get some rest.

Jay Bruce hit a two run homer in the top of the 6th off Greinke to put the game out of reach, a 4-1 Reds lead. Aroldis Chapman retired Carl Crawford on a line out to left to finish off a Dodgers rally in the ninth that potentially would have been a matchup for the ages, (Yasiel Puig up with two outs, three runs down with the bases loaded). Perhaps we’ll see that in post season play.

July 26th, Dodgers 2, Reds 1
Clayton Kershaw was his usual masterful self, pitching 8 innings, striking out 8, allowing 6 hits and one earned run. Hanley Ramirez’ 2-run homer in the 6th inning spoiled a fine outing by Reds’ starter Homer Bailey and would be all the offense that Kershaw would need. Kenley Jansen struck out two of the three hitters he faced in a perfect inning of work to earn his 13th save of the year.

After a rare Greinke loss to the Reds on July 25, Clayton Kershaw quickly righted the ship with a stellar 2-1 win the next night. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

July 27th, Dodgers 4, Reds 1
The Ryu vs. Choo game. This match was televised live to millions of homes in South Korea. Ryu bested Choo on the night as he pitched 7 strong innings of 2-hit ball, striking out 9 batters before a relief corps tandem of Belisario, Rodriguez and Jansen closed out the game. Skip Schumaker homered as a Dodger at Dodger Stadium for the first time to put the game out of reach. Jay Bruce hit one out again this game, providing the lone Cincinnati run.

July 28th, Dodgers 1, Reds 0
It was a game for the ages and one of the most memorable of the year. The Dodger offense was completely dominated by Reds pitching as they struck out a club record 20 times this game in 11 innings. Toni Cingrani is a name for Dodger fans to remember, as the kid dominated Los Angeles. He went seven innings and allowed one measly hit. He struck out 11 Dodger hitters and he got a “no decision” for all his effort.

This one ended on a memorable Yasiel Puig homer. You remember that one, where he slid into home plate as he was mobbed by his teammates.

The Numbers thus far:
Total Runs scored: Dodgers 9, Reds 7
Reds offensive numbers vs. Los Angeles:
.156 Team batting Average, .206 OBP, .297 SLG, 3 home runs
Reds pitching stats vs. L.A.:
35.2 IP, 2.02 ERA, .244 BA against, .289 OBP against, 3 homers

Cincinnati Players to watch for:
Tony Cingrani (6-3, 2.76 ERA, 97 IP, 103 SO)
Mat Latos (14-5, 2.98 ERA, 184 IP, 172 K)
Homer Bailey (10-10, 3.55, 177 IP, 173 K, one no-hitter)
Aroldis Chapman (2.87, 33 SV, 53 IP, 90 K’s)
Joey Votto (.306 BA, .928 OPS, 21 HR, .430 OBP, 64 RBI)
Brandon Phillips (.269 BA, .736 OPS, 17 HR, .318 OBP, 99 RBI)
Jay Bruce (.270 BA, 820 OPS, 26 HR, .329 OBP, 88 RBI)
Shin Soo Choo (.285 BA, 881 OPS, 19 HR, .415 OBP, 46 RBI)

Dusty Baker’s tendencies and the Secret weapon

Dusty likes his vets and he’ll stick with them. He’ll never admit it, but he’s very thin-skinned when it comes to criticism. He has been for years. He has a tendency to burn up bullpens by going with lefty-lefty, righty-righty matchups in late innings. He also has had his most success with offensive laden teams, such as his current Reds lineup.

Baker’s managerial history in three different cities shows this. Many admit that Dusty’s strength lies with his cohesive clubhouse and positive relationships with his players. That is, as long as you’re a proven veteran. Baker has a history of getting veteran players motivated and playing well under him. He also in known for playing substandard vets (i.e. Neifi Perez, Shawon Dunston, and Marvin Benard come to mind) over younger prospects.

Baker lives and dies with his team. Watching him suffer in the dugout can be real painful. He works hard at his craft and is always looking for a leg up on the competition. Admittedly he says that he watches the MLB network each night until he falls asleep doing so. He studies matchups and numbers, giving me the sense that he can micro-manage at times. Can you imagine Mattingly watching the MLB network virtually every waking hour? I can’t. There is a time when a respite from the game serves beneficially and Dusty just isn’t capable of taking a break from the game during the season.

Baker’s Cubs teams got away from him. They were distracted by silly stuff, such as T.V. announcers critiques and articles in print. Baker fell into that too and didn’t control it. This served as his downfall in Chicago. With the Reds, we haven’t seen that, probably because there isn’t the media circus there as there was in Chicago. When the playoffs arrive, that will be when Baker needs to control his emotions.

Let me add this. I never like to allude to the “choke” word, because “choking” is a serious accusation. But Baker’s post season teams have a history of not coming through in the clutch. Be it the 2002 Giants who were within 6 outs of a world series championship, or the Cubs in ’03 who failed to win the pennant on “Bartman” night again 5 outs short of the pennant. Those events were ancient history until last year, when the Reds had a 2 games to none lead on San Francisco and failed to close out the NLDS by losing three games in a row AT HOME. That, my friends, is a losing trend that borders on choking.

As much as many contend that Baker’s strength is getting a cohesive group effort from his players, he does lose them at times. Last night was a prime example when his veterans made two bone head plays on their own. Once with Brandon Phillips sacrificing Votto into scoring position, that Baker admitted he didn’t call for and, second, a botched suicide squeeze in the 15th inning with two outs. This leads to the question: Does Dusty have the fortitude to rip his players in private for mental errors?

The Reds do have a secret weapon this September in Billy Hamilton, the speedster out of the minors who was called up this week. Hamilton has 395 stolen bases in the minors over 5 seasons, including a record setting 155 in 2012 and 75 this year. So far Baker has used him in two situations and both times it paid off, with stolen bases and a run scored. It’s Proof that Dusty isn’t afraid to use a rookie in the right situation, as long as he has proved himself, something that the youngster is doing so far. Don’t count on Hamilton ever batting under Baker, but as Herb Washington-type pinch runner? Yeah he’ll be out there.

Reds speedster Billy Hamilton stole 155 bases in 2012 to set a new all-time minor league record, including this one against the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes while a member of the Reds Advanced Single-A affiliate Bakersfield Blaze. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

What to expect his series

These just may be three barn burners. The Reds will face Chris Capuano in the first match-up, so they best be on their A-game Friday because Greinke and Kershaw will soon follow. With the Dodgers within striking distance of winning the division, they’ll be eager to whittle off a few more games towards that ultimate goal of winning the division. This is bound to be an interesting series, with the Reds playing for their lives and the Dodgers playing to close out the division title as soon as possible.

Mattingly has promised to play the starters again, unlike the final game in Colorado. A lineup of Ramirez, Gonzalez, Puig, Crawford, et al should be in place. The Reds dodged a bullet and won’t have to face Hyun-Jin Ryu this series as the Dodger lefty came up with a stiff back and is being rested for a couple of more days.

Friday: Capuano (4-7) vs. Leake (11-6)
Saturday: Greinke (14-3) vs. Latos ( 14-5)
Sunday: Kershaw (14-8) vs. Bailey (10-10)