June 18th, 2013 at 6:00 am 
by Roy Chong Could it be that the deep-pocket Dodger owners wasted their money on Zack Greinke – more money than the Gross Domestic Income of many small countries? Could it be that the 29-year-old former Cy Young Award winner has a shoulder or elbow injury that nobody is talking about?
One thing is for certain – the ultra-quiet eccentric right-hander’s velocity is definitely down.
Zack Greinke squats in disgust as he watches Pedro Alvarez’s monster shot clear the centerfield fence at PNC Park on Sunday afternoon. (Photo credit – Justin K. Aller)
I’ve held off saying anything about this because I wanted to wait to see if it was merely an arm strength issue after experiencing forearm stiffness and elbow soreness that had him on the 15-day DL out of spring training. I held off even longer after Greinke suffered a broken collarbone on his non-throwing shoulder in Brawl Bowl-I in San Diego. But Zack has had a fair number of starts now (nine to be exact) and his lack of velocity has become a real concern to me. His fastball is pretty much sitting at 90-91 with an occasionally 93 mixed in, but it was only a year ago that I watched him throwing 93-96 on a regular basis.
Here is a video clip of Greinke’s 2012 highlights where his fastball consistently hit 95-96:
And here is Greinke’s velocity chart from his last three seasons which clearly shows that his average fastball velocity is down (click on image to enlarge):
(Image courtesy of FanGraphs)
And it’s not just Greinke’s velocity numbers that are down – he is having a down year in pretty much every statistical category (FIP, BAA, BABIP, WHIP, etc.).
I am well aware that this year has been a mess for Greinke with all the injuries, but in my opinion, we’ve gotten to the point where that’s not a great excuse anymore.
We all know how good a healthy Zack Greinke can be and I hope that I am wrong about all of this and hope that he can turn things around – and fast.
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Wow! Great article Roy (aka: Cy Young).
I get so wrapped up in Greinke’s filthy two-seamer and his almost unhittable curve ball (unless he leaves it up, as he did on Sunday) that I have completely missed the fastball velocity thing. That velocity chart is quite surprising to me and very telling.
That being said, at 29 years of age it is understandable that Zack’s velocity would begin to decline a little, but you have to admit that when his control is on (which it is most of the time), he is still one of the most dominate pitchers in the game and could be the Dodgers’ co-ace for the next couple of seasons (which is what GBM is counting on).
The thought of a shoulder or elbow issue has been a concern of mine since spring training. The Dodgers will definitely need a healthy Zack Greinke to be competitive in the NL West over the next couple of seasons.
RT @Think_BlueLA: New post – Is Zack Greinke on the decline?
Interesting, but he did just pitch 14 innings giving up 2 runs at home. I would think the elbow would hurt just as much at home. If you look at Greinke’s home versus away stats throughout his career I think you will find your answer. When he was asked about this a few years ago he said it was because “they have bad coffee on the road”.
“they have bad coffee on the road”.
I love Greinke’s sense of humor – although most folks don’t get to see it very often.
The FanGraphs velocity chart that Roy used in his article includes all of Zack’s starts – home and away, and there is no disputing that his velocity is declining. But this happens to every power pitcher. A classic example is Tim Lincecum who is even younger than Greinke. I expect to see Lincecum in the bullpen soon – perhaps for the remainder of his career.
In spite of Greinke’s anti-social issues, I am a huge fan of his and believe that he has plenty left in the tank. That two-seamer and curveball of his are filthy – as long as he locates them well.
I have been following Greinke for most of his career Ron and hope he is able to turn it around soon. He is a great interview if a reporter can get him to talk.I also think he can still be a very dominant pitcher. What is surprising is his walks and lack of command.
You are 100% accurate on both counts – I love the post-games with Zack (when he wins, that is). He really is very funny and extremely smart.
It is/are the walks and control issues that have me concerned about a possible shoulder or elbow injury. Lord, I hope this is not the case.
Great article Roy. Greinke has concerned me because he has not shown consistent dominance. I expected him to be a notch below Clayton but he is several notches below at times. He can survive a drop in velocity as just as a drop in velocity if it is not caused by health issues. Control, location, change of speed as Greg Maddux did all his career without great velocity.
As most of you have already alluded to, a loss of velocity is normal at this point in Zack’s career. Even our boy Kershaw, who’s still dominating, has lost a tick off his fastball from the 2011 season. (However, it’s worth noting that Clayton’s velocity is still pretty consistent with his career averages)
As Ron mentioned, I think Lincecum is a great example; there is a substantial drop off in velocity starting from his 2011 season and it has not improved, and it likely never will.
I feel that Zack is showing a similar trend to Lincecum’s charts; his velocity averages for this season are well below his lowest averages for his entire career.
RT @Think_BlueLA: New post – Is Zack Greinke on the decline?
Fine piece Roy. Of all the pitchers on the Dodger staff, I believe Greinke might be the one who best deals with a decrease in velocity. He’s one of the smartest pitchers in the game and I see him as the type that will continue to excel, just as Greg Maddux did when his velocity tailed off.
Good read Roy, thanks for sharing !!