May 23rd, 2013 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka I will be the first to acknowledge that anything can happen in the game of baseball. Just when you think you’ve seen it all, something new happens. That’s the very beauty of the game and why we love it so much, and it has been this way for more than 130 years.
But there are some things in the game that history has borne out time and again and one of those is that if you are 10 games out on June 1, which just so happens to coincide with exactly 1/3 of the season this year, your chances of making it to the post-season are at risk – not always of course, but often enough to become a concern.
There isn’t a team out there that will ever admit that being 10 games back on June 1 means that you are out of contention, but history is definitely not in their favor.
As of this morning, Thursday, May 23, 2013, the Dodgers find themselves in last place in the NL West with a record of 19-26 and six games behind the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Giants, who are in a three-way tie for the division lead with identical 26-21 records. They also trail the Padres by 1.5 games. The problem with being in this uncomfortable position is that even if the Dodgers win, should any of these other NL West teams also win, the Dodgers gain zero ground on them in the standings, while yet another day ticks off of the calendar.
To compound matters, when the Dodgers return to Dodger Stadium after Thursday’s off day, they begin a three-game series with the NL Central leading St. Louis Cardinals, who just so happen to have the best record in all of baseball (30-16). The good news (if you can call it that) is that after the Cards leave town, the 19-27 Angels roll into the Ravine for a two game set, followed immediately by two more in Anaheim. The bad news is that the Dodgers haven’t done well this season against the teams that they should beat and we all know how poorly the Dodgers have done in interleague play – especially against the Angels (38-54 in regular season play).
Taking this even one step further, it is very unlikely that either NL Wild Card team will come out of the NL West this season, which means that the only way to get to the 2013 post-season from the NL West is by winning the division.
Herein lies the problem for the Dodgers or any other team in last place in their division and 10 games back on June 1 – not only must they win a lot of games within their own division to jump over teams ahead of them, but they must also win a lot of games outside of their division (and league) when teams within their own division lose; and this goes way beyond that ‘controlling your own destiny’ thing that we hear so often in the game of baseball. Thus far this season the Dodgers are a dismal 5-16 against division rivals and 13-8 outside of the division. Unfortunately, as of June 1, the Dodgers have 54 games remaining against division rival teams and 55 games remaining against non-division rivals (those aforementioned beyond controlling your own destiny games).
I realize that I have mentioned this inside and outside the division thing several times before here on ThinkBlueLA and you are probably tired of hearing it, but anyone who honestly believes that there is still plenty of time to turn things around, especially in light of the current turmoil within the Dodger organization, is in serious denial. Yes, of course it can happen, but the cold hard truth is that history is not on the Dodger’s side if they are 10 games back once the calendar flips over to June 1.
There is another deadline looming large for the Dodgers – the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and baring anything short of divine intervention, the Dodgers will most likely face that deadline as sellers instead of buyers. In other words, if the Dodgers are in the same position on July 31 as they are today, they will basically be throwing in the towel on the 2013 season, and that just plain sucks.
Although nearly all of the ‘fire Mattingly’ frenzy going on in the media right now is self procreating, at some point Dodger ownership will be forced to make some changes, several of which may be very significant and perhaps even high-reaching. That is, of course, unless the Dodgers can find some way to turn things around an avoid that 10 games out on June 1 thing altogether.
Tomorrow night is as good a time as any to start, wouldn’t you say?
Posted in 
RT @Think_BlueLA: New post – Ominous date approaching for Dodgers
As we learned yesterday, history is doomed to repeat itself. Winning is the cure-all elixer; anyone spare a few cases for the clubhouse? I just don’t know if they have what it takes to turn this season around.
Part of me wants the Dodgers to succeed. But then another part wants me to see the team faulter, because I’m sick of the Ned Colletti Show, and the only way he departs is if the team struggles. I’d rather have Kim Ng or Dan Evans running the show because I know they’d stop wasting money and hanging onto players beyond their years or their inability to perform and help the team. They would do what’s best for the club and its roster… which appears to be an oxymoron in Colletti’s world, with all the endless, deferred salaries he’s paid out in the past.
Can you imagine if Logan White were to become the Dodger GM? I believe that Logan would focus a great deal on re-building the Dodgers from within – something that has been missing from the Dodger franchise for over two decades.
My brain suffers momentary lapses of reason from time to time, but I feel you knew I was trying to say Logan White. And yet, somehow, “Dan Evans” spit out of my keyboard.
Both Logan White and Kim Ng would be stellar choices to run the ballclub. Let’s leave Dan where he is so he can become the next commish one day.
I know it looks bad right now but this team will go on a winning streak at some point, hopefully soon. As they say, “the sun don’t shine on the same dog’s back every day.” Things could really only get worse if A) more players get hurt and B) if this firing Don Mattingly issue becomes a daily distraction. I don’t like managers calling out players in the press. I don’t think it is very professional and can only cause bad feelings in the dugout, but I can also see how he is tired of the attention and felt the need to fire back at the press and perhaps motivate a few players. Even though his incessant bunting drives me nuts and his bullpen choices leave me puzzled sometimes, he is not a bad manager. Not a great one at this point but not a bad one either. I just hope this doesn’t turn into a 3 ring circus as that will sink our hopes for this season very quickly.
Very good points 3B. I suspect that Colletti arrived in Milwaukee yesterday with a message – turn it around or you’re gone and Don chose this method to fire up his team. It worked for the day, now let’s see how it works over these next two extremely difficult series.
I simply cannot get behind the “…this team will go on a winning streak…” bandwagon; not yet, at least… not until they begin to show some heart and passion (see Nick Punto). Their longest winning streak this season is 5 games whereas that have had loosing streaks of 7 or more games twice – and they’re just starting the 3rd month of the season.
Can they do it? Of course.
Will they do it? I’m not so sure about that.
PS: Welcome back.