In a 24 hour period, the Dodgers lost their number 2 pitcher and the Lakers lost their best player on the verge of the start of the playoffs. For those that believe significant events happen in threes – be leery of what happens with the Los Angeles Kings this week.

I’m always reluctant to accept initial reports on estimates of time that athletes will be out of action due to an injury. Those guesses always seem to be overly optimistic. Such was the case with Greinke when Steve Lyons and Jim Watson immediately said he’d be out 4 to 6 weeks.

An obviously mentally unstable Carlos Quentin gets an 8-game suspension for attacking Zack Greinke while Greinke is most likely lost until after the All-Star break. Ya, like that’s fair. (Photo credit – Lenny Ignelzi)

Four weeks for a broken collarbone? I don’t know where those guys got their medical expertise but I’m thinking three months would be a more conservative estimate. A few basic internet searches have proven this to be a far more accurate estimate. My search led me to eMedicinehealth.com, a reputable website that I have researched in the past for several medical issues that have surfaced in my family.

The medical experts with this site report that with broken clavicles, often they are allowed to heal on their own. If the injury is severe, surgery is the option taken. Obviously Greinke’s injury was considered severe, as he’s underwent surgery on Saturday and a metal plate was inserted instead of a metal rod, as was Dr. ElAttrache”s initial plan. According to eMedicinehealth, once surgery is completed, the arm remains in a sling for six weeks. In Greinke’s case, that’ll mean around May 25th. That will be 46 games into the season, (35% of the season).

At that time, strengthening exercises begin. It is reported that most people return to all activities approximately three months after surgery. Considering that Greinke is a top tier professional athlete that will be under the expert care of the Dodgers medical training and conditioning staff, we can probably expect that to speed up the recovery process by a week or two, but the laws of nature apply to our athletes as well. Healing of fractures takes time. Additionally there are ligament issues when clavicles break. I think it’s fairly safe to expect Greinke to be out until July 6th or 7th, putting him a week ahead of schedule of the normal person’s recovery from such an injury. By then the Dodgers will have played their 86th game (53% of the season).

What will follow will be minor league rehab starts, (probably two, maybe more), which puts Greinke’s return to the roster for after the All Star break or a few days later. That’s 93 games into the season and now we’re up to 57% of the season being over. If Greinke needs a week longer to build up his stamina again, we’re looking easily at him missing 65% of the season.

I know many paint a rosy picture and claim he’ll be out two months. I’m just trying to keep things real here folks. Greinke’s contribution to this team will be as if we traded for him at the trade deadline. We’ll get 12 or 13 starts from him and some of those will probably be 5 innings of work as he builds up his strength. We probably won’t see him hit his stride until August, as July will essentially be a second “spring training” for him.

This injury is devastating as many people, myself included, believed that Greinke would be a 20 game winner. Now we’ll be lucky if he wins 8 games this year.

For a few months now there have been calls from fans for Colletti to trade some of the excess pitching. Now I believe it’s safe to say that its a good thing he didn’t. Both Lilly and Capuano are a blessing to have on the roster at this time.

Chad Billingsley is overcoming the laws of nature by pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament. How long he’ll be able to continue is anyone’s guess, but would we be surprised if he went down with a season ending injury?

That deep Dodger starting staff suddenly isn’t so deep anymore. Stephen Fife just may see some action this year, and he was number 9 on the depth chart when the team broke Spring Training camp. It’s amazing what one stupid brawl that never should have happened has done to this Dodger season.