Make no mistake about it, Dodger left-hander Ted Lilly is about to make the most important start of his 14-year major league career tonight against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Not only will it be the first start of the 2013 season for the oft injured 37-year-old southern California native, but it may very well be his last start in a Dodger uniform.

Oh sure, Lilly is still under contract with the Dodgers in this, the third and final year of his lofty 3-year/$33 million contract, but quite frankly, he has been a non-factor and, for the most part, a forgotten element since landing on the disabled list after his last start exactly eleven months ago to the day for pain in his left shoulder. And though Lilly tried working his way back to the Dodgers through a series of rehab starts with the Advanced Single-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes last season, he encountered a series of setbacks that ultimately led to shoulder surgery last September.

Each time it appeared that Lilly was making progress during his rehab starts last season, he would suffer a setback that prevented his return to the Dodgers. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

When Lilly showed up for spring training this past February, he insisted that he was healthy and ready to return to the Dodgers starting rotation. Unfortunately, the Dodgers weren’t quite as confident that Ted would return as the same pitcher that had started the 2012 season with a 5-1 record and an All-Star caliber 3.14 ERA before landing on the DL; thus prompting the team to sign Korean superstar left-hander Hyun-jin Ryu and former Cy Young Award winning right-hander Zack Greinke during the off-season. Those two signings gave the Dodgers a total of eight starting pitchers heading into spring training – a situation that would soon prove to be extremely fortunate for them.

As has happened in two of his three spring trainings as a Dodger, Lilly began the 2013 season on the DL; this time because the Dodgers felt that he was not fully recovered from his off-season surgery, but more than likely because the Dodgers simply had nowhere to put him with their five-man rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Ryu, Josh Beckett, Greinke and Chad Billingsley already set, and with starters Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang relegated to the bullpen. But through a series of events that were worthy of a Hollywood movie, the Dodgers traded away Harang; saw their $147 million right-hander Zack Greinke seriously injured in a benches-clearing brawl; saw Greinke’s replacement Chris Capuano strain a calf muscle; saw Chad Billingsley come to the realization that he actually did need Tommy John surgery last September but had unwisely put it off until today – all of which occurred within the first two weeks of the 2013 season.

Two of Ted Lilly’s three spring trainings with the Dodgers have resulted with him beginning the season on the disabled list. (Photo credit – Jake Roth)

As a result, what started out as a glut of starting pitching for the Dodgers now has them calling upon Stephen Fife to replace Billingsley and Lilly to replace Capuano (who should be back in action within the next two or three weeks). In other words, the Dodgers are now dipping into their farm system to fill out their rotation (although Fife pitched well enough as a spot starter for the Dodgers last season and pitched well enough during spring training this year to have earned a spot in any other teams’ starting rotation). They also have minor leaguer Matt Magill who they protected from the Rule-5 draft and who also had an outstanding spring training, but politics and existing high-dollar contracts forced Magill to begin the 2013 season at Triple-A Albuquerque – for the time being, that is.

To add insult to injury (no pun intended), Lilly will make his first start in almost a year against Mets right-handed pitching sensation Matt Harvey, who just so happens to have the best record in all of baseball right now (4-0) and who many are already pegging to be the 2013 NL Cy Young Award winner. The hard-throwing 24-year-old New London, CT native has a league leading 0.93 ERA with 32 strikeouts and only 9 walks in his 29 innings of work. In fact, Harvey had a no-hitter heading into the 7th inning of a game on April 13th against the Minnesota Twins which was spoiled on a solo home run by Twins slugger Justin Morneau. The Mets went on to win that game by a score of 4-2 and Morneau’s home run remains the only round-tripper allowed by Harvey this season.

Even though Lilly is well liked by his Dodger teammates and by Dodger fans, and in spite of the fact that he is frequently seen at Dodger Stadium doing wind sprints and throwing regular bullpen sessions, he recently fell out of favor with Dodger management when he initially refused another rehab assignment and basically told the Dodger to find a spot for him on the 25-man roster, or else. Exactly what that or else was may now never be known, as Lilly reneged on his threat and agreed to the rehab assignment, but it ended up becoming a moot point when Capuano went down with his calf injury on April 16 and Lilly penciled in as his replacement.

Although what happens with Lilly when Capuano is ready to be reactivated from the DL remains to be seen, if Lilly has a bad outing against Matt Harvey and the Mets tonight (and perhaps in one additional start), his fate may very well be sealed in the five and a half months remaining on his three-year contract. Should Lilly struggle in his season debut, coupled with his recent refusal to accept a rehab assignment, Dodger ownership may simply cut their losses and eat the remaining $12 million owed to Lilly for 2013 and send him on his way. Of course if Dodger starters continue to drop like flies, the Dodgers may have to rethink this. As we all know, “You can never have too much starting pitching” and “Pitchers break.”

One final note – the aforementioned Matt Magill was suddenly yanked from his last start on Monday night in the fourth inning, this in spite of allowing only 1 run on 1 hit while striking out 7. It was reported that Magill was pulled after the Isotopes received a phone call from the Dodgers instructing their Triple-A affiliate to do so.

“They said someone called (from Los Angeles) and I was done, so I don’t think it was up to the coaches here or me,” Magill said after the game.

Although it would be premature to read anything into this move, when coupled with the other circumstances surrounding Lilly, it certainly appears that the Dodgers are planning ahead and making preparations should Lilly struggle in his season debut tonight. As such, tonight’s game could very well be the most important game of Ted Lilly’s career.

Stay tuned…