November 6th, 2012 at 5:39 am 
by Ron Cervenka I bet that got your attention, didn’t it? The unfortunate part is that it could very well happen, and in the not-to-distant future.
The Dodgers would be wise to lock down Kershaw to a long-term contract extension – and soon. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
Allow me to elaborate.
Perhaps the only upside to the Giants sweeping the Tigers in four games in the 2012 World Series is that we only had to listen to the oft incorrect and highly incompetent Tim McCarver for only four games instead of six or seven; but one of the very few things that McCarver did get right (hey, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while) is that the Giants are in quite a predicament with their two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
As most folks know, Lincecum will be entering the second year of a 2-year / $40.5 million contract in 2013, thus making him a free agent at season’s end. And with the Giants having just spent $127.5 million on a 6-year contract extension for their ace Matt Cain and another $35 million on a 5-year contract extension for Madison Bumgarner, the Giants have pretty much blown their wad and will most likely be unable to pay Lincecum what he will want to remain with the hated ones.
In spite of his struggles early in the 2012 season, Lincecum had a very strong finish and will undoubtedly be among the top free agent pitchers on the market after the 2013 season. (Photo credit – Dilip Vishwanat)
As I said, Lincecum is entering the final year of a 2-year contract and if he is not offered a contract extension prior to spring training 2013, my guess is that he will terminate contract talks once the season begins and will test the free agent market at the conclusion of the 2013 season, when he would undoubtedly be seeking (and probably get) a multi-year, high dollar contract elsewhere (perhaps even with the Dodgers). And while I absolutely loathe the Giants and get tremendous satisfaction at them having issues like this, the very same thing could happen with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.
Like Lincecum, Kershaw will be entering the second year of his 2-year / $19 million contract in 2013. The difference, and it’s a big one, is that Kershaw is still under team control and will still be arbitration eligible in 2014. The problem with this is that the last thing that the Dodgers want is for Kershaw to go into an arbitration hearing, which would undoubtedly sour him and pretty much push him into free agency at the conclusion of the 2014 season.
Interestingly enough, I actually saw this one coming almost a year ago and even mentioned it over on the ThinkBlueLA forum. And then a week ago, Mark Saxon of ESPN LA Dodgers Report posted an article on this exact subject. Mark pointed out that with each passing month, it becomes more likely that Kershaw will leave as a free agent at the end of the 2014 season. When Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was asked if he plans to discuss this extremely crucial issue with Kershaw (and his agent Alan Hendricks) this winter, Colletti gave a typical Ned Colletti non-answer “It’s probably something we’ll think about.”
Are you kidding me? You are actually going to screw around with possibly losing the greatest left-hander to come along since Sandy Koufax to free agency? Ned, if you let Kershaw get away from the Dodgers, you will be hated in Los Angeles more than Frank McCourt is.
What’s to think about? With a guy like Zack Greinke about to lock down a multi-year / high dollar contract within the next month or so, how can you even consider allowing Kershaw to get anywhere near salary arbitration? Kershaw is a far better pitcher than Greinke, for crying out loud. I mean this is as big of a no-brainer as signing Matt Kemp to his 8-year / $160 million contract extension, and that was done by a complete idiot – the aforementioned Frank McCourt.
Clayton Kershaw needs to be locked down with a long-term contract extension this season, preferably before spring training so that his pending 2014 arbitration does not become a distraction for him. I certainly understand that Kershaw will not come cheap, but he absolutely positively will never come any cheaper than he will right now.
All of this being said, I certainly understand the recent quote by new Dodgers chairman (and money man) Mark Walter: “Pitchers break.” And while no one will dispute this, at some point you have to roll the dice on a long-term contract with a pitcher. If you do not, you will end up with a rotation full of number 4 and 5 guys, which is exactly what the Dodgers have right now after Kershaw. This is the guy that you roll the dice on, Mark – Just Do It!
As Mark Saxon so accurately said in his blog article – “It’s not as if the deadline is upon us, but the closer it gets, the scarier it becomes.”
Amen!
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So far the new ownership has done nothing that would lead me to believe that they would give Kershaw even the slightest reason to leave. I’m predicting that he will be locked up for at least another five, if not seven, years before spring training begins,
I agree with you, Dick. With all the money the new Dodger ownership has thrown around I can’t believe they would let a franchise player like Kershaw, who is also the jewel of our pitching staff, get away.
Common logic would certainly tend to agree with you, ebbetsfld, but it almost seems as though Colletti gets personal gratification from having power and control over these players and enjoys holding a hammer over their heads. The problem with this is that one of these days he’s going to screw with the wrong guy (or agent) and it’s going to bite him in the ass.
Alan Hendricks (Clayton’s agent) is no fool and will undoubtedly use Colletti’s stubbornness and insatiable ego to his and Clayton’s advantage. If the Dodgers do not approach Clayton to discuss a contract extension this winter or at least prior to spring training, Hendricks will most likely tell Clayton to not talk with them at all after that and will start working on a free agency plan that will net Clayton (and Kershaw’s Challenge) a HUGE free agency contract in the 7-year / $150M+ range; whereas the Dodgers could probably sign him right now in the 7-year / $130-$140M range.
That said, you can pretty much bet that Clayton’s late season hip impingement has caused the Dodgers to hold off on offering him a contract extension, but here again, this is where that dice rolling thing comes into play.
Regardless, I would sure sleep a lot better at night knowing that Kershaw is in the bank for the next six or seven years.
I would have to agree, Kershaw should be locked up as soon as possible before things start to go haywire.
Clayton should be signed to an extension(more than three years). Fear not, it shall come to pass.
JUST SAY IT ISN’T SO AND EXTEND HIM
“All good things to those who wait” I absolutely have no doubt Clayton will be a Dodger for a VERY long time.
I heard today that Kershaw is pissed that the Dodgers are spending big bucks and could get to a breaking point before they give him the big contract. Sounds like his agent talking to me. I think the hip thing has slowed Dodgers down but I can’t see Stan letting him go !!